IFK Norrköping vs Ljungskile: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan4 September 2026 19:00 CESTÖstgötaporten, Norrköping14°6,7 mm13 km/h

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IFK NorrköpingPossession control

LjungskilePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Norrköping (67%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.77 (+13 %)

1 · IFK Norrköping 67%X 19%14% Ljungskile · 2

67%

19%

14%

Analysis: IFK Norrköping – Ljungskile

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

IFK Norrköping come into this match riding a wave of confidence with seven consecutive victories. This kind of form makes them the undeniable favorites against Ljungskile. The hosts have shown a knack for possession control, which could be crucial in breaking down Ljungskile’s similar style. Having dominated their single head-to-head encounter since 2024, albeit a small sample size, Norrköping hold the upper hand in recent history too.

The numbers back up Norrköping’s superiority. With an expected goals figure of 2.14 compared to Ljungskile’s 0.90, the home side is anticipated to create significantly more scoring opportunities. The model assigns a 67% chance for a Norrköping victory, aligning with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0. While both teams share a possession-based approach, Norrköping’s efficiency in both scoring (1.8 xG per match) and defending (1.1 xGA) gives them a noticeable edge over Ljungskile.

Despite the likelihood of rain, which can often suppress goal-scoring, the over 2.5 goals market still leans towards the affirmative at 59%. This suggests that the hosts’ attacking prowess could shine through, even in less than ideal conditions. Meanwhile, the 53% chance for both teams to score indicates Ljungskile’s potential to at least challenge Norrköping’s defense, though the odds are slim.

For those seeking a betting angle, the value lies in backing Norrköping at odds of 1.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model sees a 67% probability of a home win, offering a 1% edge over the bookmakers' odds. Given Norrköping’s current form and statistical advantages, a 2-0 victory looks like the most plausible outcome, with the over 2.5 goals market worth considering despite the weather.

IFK Norrköping

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #3xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Christoffer NymanFxG 0.54 · xT 0.02
Moutaz NeffatiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
Tim PricaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.12

Ljungskile

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #6xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
Filip AmbrozCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.35
Isaac ShearsFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: IFK Norrköping – Ljungskile

Predicted score matrix

Ljungskile →

IFK Norrköping →

0–05.0%

0–14.0%

0–21.9%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.9%

1–19.5%

1–24.2%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.9%

2–19.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.0%

3–23.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–06.9%

4+–16.2%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,14–0,90

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.72EV+12%

Over 2,559%

@1.42

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IFK Norrköping to win67%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IFK Norrköping to win67%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tim Prica to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tim Prica to score32%
Daniel Ljung to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.564% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.541% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.541% probability@2.72BetssonEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Norrköping	X	2 · Ljungskile
Betsafe	1.45	4.80	6.03
Betsson	1.45	4.80	6.03
Nordicbet	1.45	4.80	6.03
Pinnacle	1.41	5.14	6.67

Odds updated 4 Sept, 16:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a IFK Norrköping win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.51 to 1.41 (−7%).

1-7 %

69 %59 %

1.51 → 1.41

X+23 %

25 %15 %

4.18 → 5.14

2+15 %

20 %10 %

5.80 → 6.67

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Norrköping 1Draw 0Ljungskile 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Norrköping FK come into this round on 7 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Norrköping

Ljungskile

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Norrköping (41–13)

Ljungskile (27–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Ljungskile

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Norrköping

Ljungskile

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Norrköping	Ljungskile
Points	47	24
xPoints	34.8	29.6
xG per match	1.8	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.26

Playing style	IFK Norrköping	Ljungskile
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.36
Field tilt	0.59	0.49
xT per match	1.6	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	38	32
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.28
Entries into the box per match	16	17
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	426	344
Passes against per match	335	340
Switches of play per match	15	19.1
Long balls per match	32	37

Set pieces	IFK Norrköping	Ljungskile
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.17
Corners per match	5.2	5.6
Corners against per match	5.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.64

Other	IFK Norrköping	Ljungskile
Throw-in control	0.63	0.54

The goalkeepers	Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping)	Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile)
Saves	64	68
Save %	85%	72%
xG prevented	67%	55%
Claims	111 (89%)	124 (95%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Norrköping vs Ljungskile according to our model?

The model gives IFK Norrköping a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Norrköping 67%, draw 19%, Ljungskile 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.