IFK Värnamo vs Landskrona BoIS: Prediction & Odds (24 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan24 August 2026 19:00 CESTFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo13°0,6 mm11 km/h

IFK VärnamoPossession control

Landskrona BoISPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Landskrona BoIS (40%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · IFK Värnamo 35%X 25%40% Landskrona BoIS · 2

35%

25%

40%

Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Landskrona BoIS

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

29 points to 17. That's the blunt reality of the Superettan table as Landskrona BoIS travels to face IFK Värnamo. The numbers paint a clear picture: Landskrona BoIS not only holds a firm edge in points but also in xPoints, 25.3 to Värnamo's 20.1. The expected goals per match, a crucial predictor of future performance, tilt heavily in favor of Landskrona BoIS, who are generating 1.5 xG compared to Värnamo's meager 0.99. This is a showdown between two sides that profess possession control, but one is executing its philosophy with far greater efficiency.

IFK Värnamo may take comfort in their slightly tighter defense, with an xGA of 1.2 compared to BoIS's 1.4, but that’s thin gruel given the overall context. Their attack simply hasn't been pulling its weight, and against a side with an attacking xG as robust as Landskrona's, it's hard to see how Värnamo can match fire with fire. The expected goals model is polite but not flattering, handing Värnamo a mere 35% probability of victory.

Landskrona BoIS, in contrast, can eye this fixture with justified confidence. The model leans their way, giving them a 40% chance of taking all three points on the road. In the one prior meeting since 2024—a sample too small to be definitive—BoIS emerged victorious. Yet, this is less about historical head-to-head and more about current form and capability. Their away form and knack for finding the net more convincingly suggest they can impose themselves once again.

The most likely scorelines sit at 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), and 1-0 (9%), with the model showing a slight preference for a modest total. Over 2.5 goals teeters at 51%, and with both teams to score at 55%, the odds suggest a tight affair with goals at a premium. But for those with a betting brain, the sharper play may lie with Landskrona BoIS to win at odds of 2.50 with Bet365, a value proposition worth staking if you believe in following the numbers.

IFK Värnamo

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #15xGA #5xT #11xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.38
Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.02

Landskrona BoIS

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #8xP/match #11Points #5

Key players

Adam EgnellFxG 0.26 · xT 0.34
Gustaf BruzeliusRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Constantino CapotondiLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Landskrona BoIS

Predicted score matrix

Landskrona BoIS →

IFK Värnamo →

0–07.1%

0–18.9%

0–26.4%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.5%

1–112.6%

1–28.4%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.9%

2–18.1%

2–25.6%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.6%

3–13.6%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,33–1,38

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.15EV+6%

Over 2,551%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Constantino Capotondi to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Constantino Capotondi to score29%
Hugo Andersson to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@3.06BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@3.06BetssonEV+23%reference odds
2 · Landskrona BoIS40% probability@3.06NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Värnamo	X	2 · Landskrona BoIS
Betsafe	2.22	3.50	EV+ 23% 3.06
Betsson	2.22	3.50	EV+ 23% 3.06
Nordicbet	2.22	3.50	EV+ 23% 3.06

Odds updated 18 Aug, 09:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a IFK Värnamo win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.40 to 2.22 (−7%).

1-7 %

44 %39 %

2.40 → 2.22

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.50

2+9 %

34 %29 %

2.81 → 3.06

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Värnamo 0Draw 0Landskrona BoIS 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Värnamo

Landskrona BoIS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Värnamo (23–37)

Landskrona BoIS (25–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Landskrona BoIS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Landskrona BoIS

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Värnamo	Landskrona BoIS
Points	18	29
xPoints	21.5	25.3
xG per match	0.97	1.5
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.4

Playing style	IFK Värnamo	Landskrona BoIS
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.56
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	34	30
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.29
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.76
Passes per match	373	424
Passes against per match	344	327
Switches of play per match	15.7	12.6
Long balls per match	33	30

Set pieces	IFK Värnamo	Landskrona BoIS
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.19
Corners per match	4.2	4.9
Corners against per match	5	4.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.52

Other	IFK Värnamo	Landskrona BoIS
Throw-in control	0.45	0.55

The goalkeepers	Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)	Amr Kaddoura (Landskrona BoIS)
Saves	56	42
Save %	64%	74%
xG prevented	43%	41%
Claims	101 (94%)	96 (94%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Landskrona BoIS according to our model?

The model gives Landskrona BoIS a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 35%, draw 25%, Landskrona BoIS 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.