IFK Värnamo vs Öster: Prediction & Odds (15 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan15 September 2026 19:00 CESTFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo13°9,9 mm20 km/h

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IFK VärnamoPossession control

ÖsterCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Värnamo (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.40 (+12 %)

1 · IFK Värnamo 46%X 25%30% Öster · 2

46%

25%

30%

Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Öster

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In their solitary head-to-head encounter since 2024, Öster came away with a win against IFK Värnamo. However, this single result provides insufficient evidence to predict future outcomes, especially given Värnamo's current impressive unbeaten streak in their last eight league matches. This momentum underscores a resilience that the numbers seem to favor, aligning closely with their higher model probability to win at 46%.

Turning to the teams' recent performances, the expected goals (xG) statistics suggest a tight contest. Värnamo's expected goals per match stand at 1.0, while they concede an average of 1.3 xGA. Conversely, Öster averages 1.2 xG but with a more porous defense, conceding 1.7 xGA. The model's expected goals imply a close match with the potential for both teams to find the net, reflected in the 57% likelihood of both teams scoring.

The weather forecast of over 10 mm of rain could lead to a more subdued affair, potentially dampening the attacking ambitions of both sides. The model's assessment of a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals might seem enticing, but the conditions could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the lean towards under 2.5 goals.

The sharpest angle here lies in the under 2.5 goals market, where there's a substantial value play. With odds of 2.4 available from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model finds a 12% edge in backing fewer than three goals. Given the conditions and Värnamo's defensive capabilities, this offers a compelling proposition amid the model's cautious lean towards a narrow home victory or a low-scoring draw.

IFK Värnamo

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #13xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.39
Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.13

Öster

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #11xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Dennis OlssonLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.48
Linus CarlstrandFxG 0.46 · xT -0.02
Mattis AdolfssonCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Öster

Predicted score matrix

Öster →

IFK Värnamo →

0–06.4%

0–17.5%

0–25.1%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.7%

1–112.2%

1–27.7%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.8%

2–18.9%

2–25.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.4%

3–14.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,51–1,30

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.40EV+12%

Over 2,553%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

IFK Värnamo to win46%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

IFK Värnamo to win46%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Marcus Antonsson to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Linus Carlstrand to score25%
Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.40BetssonEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.40NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Värnamo	X	2 · Öster
Betsafe	1.95	3.83	EV+ 2% 3.45
Betsson	1.95	3.83	EV+ 2% 3.45
Nordicbet	1.95	3.83	EV+ 2% 3.45
Pinnacle	1.95	3.82	EV+ 1% 3.42

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:16

Odds movement

1-1 %

50 %45 %

1.97 → 1.95

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.82 → 3.82

2+2 %

30 %25 %

3.36 → 3.42

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Värnamo 0Draw 0Öster 1

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Värnamo are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Värnamo

Öster

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Värnamo (30–41)

Öster (33–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Öster

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Öster

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Värnamo	Öster
Points	26	33
xPoints	27.1	25.8
xG per match	1	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.34

Playing style	IFK Värnamo	Öster
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.48	0.46
xT per match	1.3	1.4
xTA per match	1.6	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	33	27
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	15	19
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	375	373
Passes against per match	373	381
Switches of play per match	15.2	14
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	IFK Värnamo	Öster
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.16
Corners per match	4.8	5
Corners against per match	5.1	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.56

Other	IFK Värnamo	Öster
Throw-in control	0.47	0.57

The goalkeepers	Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)	Carl Lundahl Persson (Öster)
Saves	75	92
Save %	68%	77%
xG prevented	48%	56%
Claims	117 (91%)	122 (85%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Värnamo

Fixtures, form & tips

Öster

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Öster according to our model?

The model gives IFK Värnamo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 46%, draw 25%, Öster 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.