IFK Värnamo vs Varbergs BoIS: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan5 September 2026 13:00 CESTFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo13°14,9 mm19 km/h

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IFK VärnamoPossession control

1–1

Varbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Varbergs BoIS (40%)

1 · IFK Värnamo 34%X 26%40% Varbergs BoIS · 2

34%

26%

40%

Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Varbergs BoIS

Erik Lindberg · 4 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

IFK Värnamo's recent form shows an unbeaten streak in their last six league matches. But the statistics tell a more nuanced story. Värnamo holds possession well, yet struggles to convert that into goals, with an xG of just 0.97 per match. Their approach will likely focus on maintaining control and probing for openings, but they might find themselves vulnerable to Varbergs BoIS's more direct style, which thrives on counter-attacks and crossing.

Varbergs, on the other hand, bring a sharper attacking edge to the table. Their xG stands at 1.4 per match, suggesting they are more effective in creating and capitalizing on goal-scoring opportunities. Despite Värnamo's recent unbeaten run, the visitors have the upper hand in both points and xPoints, indicating a more consistent performance throughout the season.

The small sample size of head-to-head data—just one match—doesn't overshadow the current form and expected goals statistics. With Värnamo's defensive solidity (xGA 1.2) facing Varbergs' potent attack, this matchup may hinge on whether Varbergs can exploit the gaps left by a possession-focused Värnamo side. The forecasted 25 mm of rain could dampen scoring chances, but the model's numbers have accounted for these conditions.

Considering the probabilities and the betting landscape, the smart money leans towards Varbergs BoIS. With their odds at 2.81 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet giving a 12% edge over the model's 40% win probability, there's clear value in backing the visitors. A 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 12%, but Varbergs' 1-2 win, at 9%, offers both a plausible and financially rewarding scenario.

IFK Värnamo

Form WWDDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #4xT #13xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.39
Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02

Varbergs BoIS

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #10xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Shanyder BorgelinFxG 0.37 · xT 0.05
Albin WinboCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.39
Isak Valentin VidjeskogCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.16

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: IFK Värnamo 34% · Draw 26% · Varbergs BoIS 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Varbergs BoISBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,74fair 9,05-14 %

Miss

Matchresultat - IFK VärnamoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,52fair 10,01-35 %

Miss

Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Varbergs BoIS

Predicted score matrix

Varbergs BoIS →

IFK Värnamo →

0–06.3%

0–18.3%

0–26.2%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.9%

1–112.2%

1–28.6%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.6%

2–18.1%

2–25.9%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.6%

3–13.7%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,37–1,45

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,547%

@2.24EV+4%

Over 2,553%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Shanyder Borgelin to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Shanyder Borgelin to score31%
Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Varbergs BoIS40% probability@2.81BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Varbergs BoIS40% probability@2.81BetssonEV+12%reference odds
2 · Varbergs BoIS40% probability@2.81NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Värnamo	X	2 · Varbergs BoIS
Betsafe	2.42	3.41	EV+ 12% 2.81
Betsson	2.42	3.41	EV+ 12% 2.81
Nordicbet	2.42	3.41	EV+ 12% 2.81
Pinnacle	2.47	3.54	EV+ 11% 2.77

Odds updated 5 Sept, 12:31

Odds movement

1+6 %

42 %37 %

2.33 → 2.47

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.48 → 3.54

2-4 %

36 %31 %

2.88 → 2.77

Over 2,5-1 %

59 %54 %

1.69 → 1.67

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Värnamo 0Draw 0Varbergs BoIS 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

IFK Värnamo are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Värnamo

Varbergs BoIS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Värnamo (25–38)

Varbergs BoIS (38–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Varbergs BoIS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Varbergs BoIS

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Värnamo	Varbergs BoIS
Points	22	37
xPoints	24	30
xG per match	0.97	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.4
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.24

Playing style	IFK Värnamo	Varbergs BoIS
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.49	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	34	36
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.58
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	374	294
Passes against per match	360	372
Switches of play per match	15.3	20.2
Long balls per match	32	35

Set pieces	IFK Värnamo	Varbergs BoIS
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.12
Corners per match	4.3	4.7
Corners against per match	5	4.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.67

Other	IFK Värnamo	Varbergs BoIS
Throw-in control	0.46	0.43

The goalkeepers	Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)	Oscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS)
Saves	66	41
Save %	67%	65%
xG prevented	46%	39%
Claims	109 (93%)	84 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Värnamo

Fixtures, form & tips

Varbergs BoIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Varbergs BoIS according to our model?

The model gives Varbergs BoIS a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 34%, draw 26%, Varbergs BoIS 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.