Swedish SuperettanDomnarvsvallen, Borlänge14°2,6 mm11 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    BrageBragePossession control
    0–1
    GIF SundsvallGIF SundsvallLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Brage (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · GIF Sundsvall @ 5.63 (+39 %)

    Brage – GIF Sundsvall · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Brage 51%X 24%25% GIF Sundsvall · 2

    Analysis: Brage – GIF Sundsvall

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A clash of styles is on the cards as Brage and GIF Sundsvall lock horns in the Superettan, with the hosts set to play their possession-based game against Sundsvall's low block and direct approach. The data suggests that Brage, with a 51% chance of victory, holds the upper hand. With expected goals of 1.95 for Brage against 1.16 for Sundsvall, the home side should find more opportunities to impose their game.

    The historical record leans heavily towards the hosts too, with Brage winning three of the last five encounters since 2024. However, it's worth noting that this is a limited sample size, and while it provides a glimpse, the current form and underlying numbers should carry more weight in our assessment. Brage's possession control could be pivotal here, particularly against a Sundsvall side that prefers to sit back and counter.

    Goals could be on the menu, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 59%. The most likely outcomes of 1-1 or 2-1 suggest a tight contest, though Brage's edge in xG per match (1.4 vs. 0.98) indicates they're more likely to carve out decisive chances. Still, Sundsvall's slightly better defense (xGA 1.4 vs. 1.5) means they won't be easy to break down.

    For those seeking value, the away win at odds of 4.8 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers a tempting proposition. Sundsvall's 25% win probability provides a 19% edge against these odds. While Brage is favored, a calculated punt on the visitors could indeed pay dividends.

    BrageBrage
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #8xP/match #11Points #14
    Key players
    • Alex MortensenFxG 0.33 · xT 0.12
    • Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.33 · xT 0.05
    • Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.65
    GIF SundsvallGIF Sundsvall
    Form LLDLW
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #16xP/match #12Points #16
    Key players
    • Taiki KagayamaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Suwaibou KebbehFxG 0.32 · xT 0.03
    • Miguel SandbergLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Brage 51% · Draw 24% · GIF Sundsvall 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - GIF SundsvallBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,67fair 14,99-9 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IK BrageBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,57fair 5,30-14 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Brage – GIF Sundsvall

    Predicted score matrix

    GIF Sundsvall →
    Brage →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–14.9%
    0–23.0%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–110.4%
    1–25.9%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.5%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–05.5%
    3–16.4%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–04.2%
    4+–14.9%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,95–1,16
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.22
    Over 2,560%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Brage to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.13

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Brage to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Anton Lundin to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Anton Lundin to score37%
    • Hugo Aviander to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · GIF Sundsvall25% probability@5.63PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
    • 2 · GIF Sundsvall25% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
    • 2 · GIF Sundsvall25% probability@4.80BetssonEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BrageX2 · GIF Sundsvall
    Betfair Exchange1.101.101.10
    Betsafe1.654.02
    EV+ 19%
    4.80
    Betsson1.654.02
    EV+ 19%
    4.80
    Nordicbet1.654.02
    EV+ 19%
    4.80
    Pinnacle1.54
    EV+ 4%
    4.38
    EV+ 39%
    5.63

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 16:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Brage win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.54 (−10%).

    1-10 %
    63 %53 %

    1.72 → 1.54

    X+14 %
    28 %18 %

    3.85 → 4.38

    2+29 %
    24 %14 %

    4.36 → 5.63

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Brage 3Draw 1GIF Sundsvall 1
    Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • IK Brage dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Brage
    GIF Sundsvall
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Brage (35–42)
    GIF Sundsvall (15–44)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 254 passningar, xT 0.69StagaardAlexander Zetterström: 230 passningar, xT 0.25ZetterströmOzor Victor Okeke: 146 passningar, xT 0.22OkekeLasse Bruun Madsen: 144 passningar, xT 0.03MadsenAlbin Sporrong: 139 passningar, xT 0.66SporrongMalte Persson: 127 passningar, xT 1.06PerssonGideon Granström: 102 passningar, xT 0.13GranströmAnders Hellblom: 90 passningar, xT 0.73HellblomNoah Östberg: 84 passningar, xT 0.38ÖstbergAlex Mortensen: 80 passningar, xT 0.17MortensenViktor Frodig: 74 passningar, xT 0.3Frodig
    GIF Sundsvall
    Lucas Forsberg: 223 passningar, xT 0.45ForsbergAlper Demirol: 202 passningar, xT 1.26DemirolMalte Hallin: 169 passningar, xT 0.37HallinJakob Hedenquist: 152 passningar, xT 0.11HedenquistAlieu Atlee Manneh: 135 passningar, xT 0.27MannehJonas Olsson: 109 passningar, xT 0.26OlssonTaiki Kagayama: 100 passningar, xT 0.63KagayamaLudvig Nåvik: 97 passningar, xT 0.28NåvikMarc Manchon I Armans: 89 passningar, xT 0.66ArmansEdvard Carrick: 80 passningar, xT 0.02CarrickEron Gojani: 55 passningar, xT 0.8Gojani
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 254 passningar, xT 0.69StagaardAlexander Zetterström: 230 passningar, xT 0.25ZetterströmOzor Victor Okeke: 146 passningar, xT 0.22OkekeLasse Bruun Madsen: 144 passningar, xT 0.03MadsenAlbin Sporrong: 139 passningar, xT 0.66SporrongMalte Persson: 127 passningar, xT 1.06PerssonGideon Granström: 102 passningar, xT 0.13GranströmAnders Hellblom: 90 passningar, xT 0.73HellblomNoah Östberg: 84 passningar, xT 0.38ÖstbergAlex Mortensen: 80 passningar, xT 0.17MortensenViktor Frodig: 74 passningar, xT 0.3Frodig
    GIF Sundsvall
    Lucas Forsberg: 223 passningar, xT 0.45ForsbergAlper Demirol: 202 passningar, xT 1.26DemirolMalte Hallin: 169 passningar, xT 0.37HallinJakob Hedenquist: 152 passningar, xT 0.11HedenquistAlieu Atlee Manneh: 135 passningar, xT 0.27MannehJonas Olsson: 109 passningar, xT 0.26OlssonTaiki Kagayama: 100 passningar, xT 0.63KagayamaLudvig Nåvik: 97 passningar, xT 0.28NåvikMarc Manchon I Armans: 89 passningar, xT 0.66ArmansEdvard Carrick: 80 passningar, xT 0.02CarrickEron Gojani: 55 passningar, xT 0.8Gojani

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBrageGIF Sundsvall
    Points2113
    xPoints27.927.8
    xG per match1.40.98
    xGA per match1.51.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.25
    Playing styleBrageGIF Sundsvall
    Build-up efficiency0.350.3
    Field tilt0.480.37
    xT per match1.51.1
    xTA per match1.61.7
    Won balls, offensive half3229
    Pressing intensity0.540.5
    Pressing efficiency0.270.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.25
    Entries into the box per match1411
    Entries into the box against1714
    Pass completion %0.770.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.7
    Passes per match343308
    Passes against per match366471
    Switches of play per match18.416.9
    Long balls per match3330
    Set piecesBrageGIF Sundsvall
    xG from free kicks0.130.06
    Corners per match54.8
    Corners against per match5.45.2
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.520.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.58
    OtherBrageGIF Sundsvall
    Throw-in control0.540.57
    The goalkeepersViktor Frodig (Brage)Jonas Olsson (GIF Sundsvall)
    Saves6378
    Save %63%64%
    xG prevented44%44%
    Claims128 (97%)129 (93%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Brage
    Fixtures, form & tips
    GIF Sundsvall
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Brage vs GIF Sundsvall according to our model?

    The model gives Brage a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brage 51%, draw 24%, GIF Sundsvall 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.