Brage vs Sandviken: Prediction & Odds (15 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan15 September 2026 19:00 CESTDomnarvsvallen, Borlänge12°2,7 mm16 km/h

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BragePossession control

SandvikenPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sandviken (45%)

1 · Brage 31%X 24%45% Sandviken · 2

31%

24%

45%

Analysis: Brage – Sandviken

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The five-match head-to-head record between Brage and Sandviken leans slightly towards the visitors, who have claimed victory in three out of these encounters. Although the sample size is relatively small, it hints at a pattern that could extend into the upcoming match. Sandviken's recent form and attacking metrics suggest they have the upper hand, despite the hosts' historical familiarity at home.

Brage's current form is concerning, with three consecutive losses casting a shadow over their campaign. Contrast that with Sandviken, whose points tally of 30 surpasses Brage's 21, and the visitors seem better poised to capitalize. The expected goals data further supports this narrative: Sandviken's xG of 1.72 outstrips Brage's 1.45, indicating a likely edge in offensive output. Even though both teams share a similar playing style focused on possession control, Sandviken have executed it with more success this season.

The expectation for goals is high. With a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score, the statistics suggest a lively contest. However, the anticipated rain, measuring 2.7 mm, could dampen the attacking flow, potentially affecting scoring efficiency. Nonetheless, these conditions are already factored into the model's projections.

For those eyeing value in the betting markets, Sandviken's win at odds 2.61 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a clear opportunity. Rated at a 45% probability by the model, this carries a substantial 17% value edge. Sandviken's recent form, coupled with Brage's struggles, makes the visitors a compelling play in this matchup.

Brage

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #6xP/match #10Points #14

Key players

Alex MortensenFxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.65

Sandviken

Form LDDWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #8xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Adam KianiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
Linus TagessonRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.28
Karl BohmFxG 0.24 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Brage – Sandviken

Predicted score matrix

Sandviken →

Brage →

0–04.5%

0–16.9%

0–26.2%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.3%

1–05.8%

1–110.8%

1–29.0%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.4%

2–17.6%

2–26.5%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.4%

3–02.1%

3–13.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,45–1,72

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.28

Over 2,561%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sandviken or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sandviken or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Johan Arvidsson to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Lasse Bruun Madsen to score27%
Ozor Victor Okeke to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sandviken45% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Sandviken45% probability@2.55BetssonEV+14%reference odds
2 · Sandviken45% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brage	X	2 · Sandviken
Betsafe	2.55	3.59	EV+ 14% 2.55
Betsson	2.55	3.59	EV+ 14% 2.55
Nordicbet	2.55	3.59	EV+ 14% 2.55
Pinnacle	2.60	3.63	EV+ 10% 2.47

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:16

Odds movement

1+6 %

40 %35 %

2.46 → 2.60

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.63 → 3.63

2-5 %

39 %34 %

2.61 → 2.47

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Brage 2Draw 0Sandviken 3

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
IK Brage have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brage

Sandviken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brage (35–43)

Sandviken (36–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brage

Sandviken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brage

Sandviken

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brage	Sandviken
Points	21	30
xPoints	29.4	33.6
xG per match	1.3	1.5
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.3

Playing style	Brage	Sandviken
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.48	0.6
xT per match	1.6	1.5
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	29
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	17	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.78
Passes per match	343	504
Passes against per match	361	339
Switches of play per match	18.7	14.3
Long balls per match	34	30

Set pieces	Brage	Sandviken
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.08
Corners per match	5.1	4.7
Corners against per match	5.4	5.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.65

Other	Brage	Sandviken
Throw-in control	0.55	0.62

The goalkeepers	Viktor Frodig (Brage)	Otto Lindell (Sandviken)
Saves	66	57
Save %	64%	70%
xG prevented	45%	48%
Claims	136 (97%)	103 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brage

Fixtures, form & tips

Sandviken

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brage vs Sandviken according to our model?

The model gives Sandviken a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brage 31%, draw 24%, Sandviken 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.