Oddevold vs Falkenberg: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan5 September 2026 15:00 CESTRimnersvallen, Uddevalla14°2,8 mm22 km/h

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OddevoldLow block & direct

2–1

FalkenbergPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Oddevold (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Falkenberg @ 3.11 (+1 %)

1 · Oddevold 40%X 27%33% Falkenberg · 2

40%

27%

33%

Analysis: Oddevold – Falkenberg

Anna Karlsson · 4 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Oddevold's inability to secure a win against Falkenberg in their last three matchups adds an intriguing layer to their upcoming clash. The head-to-head record reads 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss for the hosts, suggesting a mental barrier that might influence the game. However, with only three encounters to consider, this small sample size doesn't overshadow current form and expected goals data, where Oddevold holds a slight edge.

The hosts are backed by a 40% model probability for victory, slightly above Falkenberg's 33%. Oddevold also leads in expected goals, producing 1.60 compared to the visitors' 1.21. This, coupled with their direct playing style, might see them capitalize on Falkenberg's possession-oriented approach, potentially disrupting their rhythm. Despite this, Falkenberg's consistent attacking record, scoring in 14 consecutive league matches, cannot be overlooked and suggests they'll likely find the net again.

Rain is expected, with 2.9 mm poised to dampen the pitch. Such conditions typically suppress high-scoring games, with defensive solidity becoming critical. The model's prediction of a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score already factors in this weather aspect. The most probable scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—align with a tightly contested affair, rather than a goal-heavy spectacle.

The sharpest angle for this encounter lies in the under 3.5 goals market. The betting value here is clear, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 1.49. The model rates this outcome at 69%, revealing a 3% value edge. While Oddevold may hold a slight upper hand in terms of expected goals, the most rational conclusion is a hard-fought match with limited scoring chances, where the under 3.5 goals bet appears particularly compelling.

Oddevold

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #8

Key players

Gustav ForssellFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
Leonardo Farah ShahinFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03

Falkenberg

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #14xP/match #8Points #2

Key players

Hampus KällströmFxG 0.47 · xT 0.17
Albin AnderssonFxG 0.45 · xT 0.09
Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Oddevold 40% · Draw 27% · Falkenberg 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IK OddevoldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,16fair 7,54-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Falkenbergs FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,37fair 13,08-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Oddevold – Falkenberg

Predicted score matrix

Falkenberg →

Oddevold →

0–06.3%

0–16.9%

0–24.4%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.3%

1–112.0%

1–27.1%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.3%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.1%

3–15.0%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,60–1,21

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.10

Over 2,553%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Leonardo Farah Shahin to score26%
Melker Nilsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Falkenberg33% probability@3.11BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg33% probability@3.11BetssonEV+1%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg33% probability@3.11NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oddevold	X	2 · Falkenberg
Betsafe	2.23	3.40	EV+ 1% 3.11
Betsson	2.23	3.40	EV+ 1% 3.11
Nordicbet	2.23	3.40	EV+ 1% 3.11
Pinnacle	2.37	3.38	3.03

Odds updated 5 Sept, 12:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.20 to 1.99 (−10%).

1+8 %

48 %38 %

2.20 → 2.37

X-3 %

32 %22 %

3.50 → 3.38

2-1 %

35 %25 %

3.07 → 3.03

Over 2,5+12 %

60 %50 %

1.65 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Oddevold 0Draw 2Falkenberg 1

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Falkenbergs FF have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oddevold

Falkenberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oddevold (34–31)

Falkenberg (41–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oddevold

Falkenberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oddevold

Falkenberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oddevold	Falkenberg
Points	29	38
xPoints	34.5	29.2
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.28

Playing style	Oddevold	Falkenberg
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.32
Field tilt	0.47	0.41
xT per match	1.6	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	40	25
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.72
Passes per match	328	397
Passes against per match	428	391
Switches of play per match	16.8	18.7
Long balls per match	29	33

Set pieces	Oddevold	Falkenberg
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.15
Corners per match	5.5	4.2
Corners against per match	4.2	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.47

Other	Oddevold	Falkenberg
Throw-in control	0.43	0.56

The goalkeepers	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)
Saves	54	30
Save %	67%	63%
xG prevented	48%	43%
Claims	127 (94%)	90 (98%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oddevold

Fixtures, form & tips

Falkenberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oddevold vs Falkenberg according to our model?

The model gives Oddevold a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oddevold 40%, draw 27%, Falkenberg 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.