01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)58%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Swedish SuperettanLandskrona IP, Landskrona17°0,6 mm24 km/h
Läs på svenska
Landskrona BoISPossession control1–1
ÖstersundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Östersund (38%)
Landskrona BoIS – Östersund · Swedish Superettan
1 · Landskrona BoIS 36%X 26%38% Östersund · 2
36%
26%
38%
Analysis: Landskrona BoIS – Östersund
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Östersund's seven-match unbeaten run anchors their strong form against Landskrona, who have managed a balanced head-to-head record with two wins, a draw, and two losses in the small sample since 2024. Yet, the hosts have an edge in expected goals at 1.50 compared to Östersund's 1.26. This is a tight contest, a clash of styles between Landskrona's possession control and the visitors' high press.
Despite Landskrona's slight advantage in expected goals, the model gives Östersund a narrow edge in overall probabilities, backed by a better points tally (34 to 30) and a superior defensive record with 1.1 xGA per match compared to Landskrona's 1.4. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw stands at 12%, the most likely scoreline, though the fixture has historically been high-scoring, averaging 4.0 goals per meeting. With over 2.5 goals sitting at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, this looks more like an open, goal-friendly affair than a low-scoring one.
Bookmakers offer value on an Östersund win. Odds of 2.81 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet are enticing given the model's 38% probability, highlighting a 6% edge. While it's not a guarantee, the numbers suggest Östersund carries the day in a tight, potentially high-scoring affair.
Landskrona BoISForm LLWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #8xP/match #12Points #7
Key players
- Adam EgnellFxG 0.24 · xT 0.33
- Zakaria LoukiliFxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
- Constantino CapotondiLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.27
ÖstersundForm DWWDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #3xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Simon MarklundRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.22
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.21
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 36% · Draw 26% · Östersund 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Landskrona BOISBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,15fair 8,47-4 %
MissMatchresultat - Östersunds FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,32fair 12,00-22 %
MissMatch prediction: Landskrona BoIS – Östersund
Predicted score matrix
Östersund →
Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–17.6%
0–25.0%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.1%
1–112.3%
1–27.5%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.0%
2–25.7%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.5%
3–22.8%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,50–1,26
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.84
Over 2,552%
@2.01EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)58%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Emil Özkan to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Emil Özkan to score18%
- Amar Begic to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Östersund38% probability@2.84BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Östersund38% probability@2.84BetssonEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Östersund38% probability@2.84NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Landskrona BoIS | X | 2 · Östersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Betsafe | 2.48 | 3.24 | EV+ 7% 2.84 |
| Betsson | 2.48 | 3.24 | EV+ 7% 2.84 |
| Nordicbet | 2.48 | 3.24 | EV+ 7% 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.26 | EV+ 6% 2.79 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 12:25
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.84 (−6%).
1+6 %
42 %32 %
2.47 → 2.62
X-3 %
34 %24 %
3.35 → 3.26
20 %
39 %29 %
2.78 → 2.79
Over 2,5+10 %
55 %45 %
1.83 → 2.01
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesLandskrona BoIS 2Draw 1Östersund 2
Goals: 10–10 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Landskrona BoIS
Östersund
Landskrona BoIS (26–21)
Östersund (29–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Landskrona BoIS
Östersund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Landskrona BoIS
Östersund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Landskrona BoIS | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 30 | 34 |
| xPoints | 26.3 | 27.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Landskrona BoIS | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 432 | 439 |
| Passes against per match | 323 | 338 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.7 | 17.1 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Landskrona BoIS | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.19 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| Other | Landskrona BoIS | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Amr Kaddoura (Landskrona BoIS) | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 44 | 30 |
| Save % | 73% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 31% |
| Claims | 97 (94%) | 77 (90%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Landskrona BoIS vs Östersund according to our model?
The model gives Östersund a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Landskrona BoIS 36%, draw 26%, Östersund 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.