Ljungskile vs Falkenberg: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Swedish Superettan13 September 2026 17:00 CESTSkarsjövallen, Uddevalla16°4,3 mm13 km/h

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LjungskilePossession control

FalkenbergPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Falkenberg (39%)Soft draw

1 · Ljungskile 35%X 26%39% Falkenberg · 2

35%

26%

39%

Analysis: Ljungskile – Falkenberg

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fifteen straight games with a goal. That's the streak Falkenberg rides into their clash against Ljungskile, a testament to their attacking consistency. While the visitors have a slight edge in the model's win probability at 39%, the numbers suggest a razor-thin contest. Ljungskile's 1.5 expected goals per match shade Falkenberg's 1.3, yet both sides adopt a possession-driven approach, which might see tactical control rather than goalscoring flair dominate proceedings.

Despite a scant head-to-head sample — just a lone draw since 2024 — the weighted importance lies in current form and expected goals. Ljungskile's xG and xPoints suggest a team with underutilized potential, but Falkenberg's positional consistency in scoring can't be ignored. Both teams are expected to find the net with a 60% probability, pointing towards a potentially high-scoring affair, albeit one dampened slightly by the forecast of nearly 10 mm of rain. This weather factor is accounted for in the model, which still leans towards the overs at 57%.

For bettors, the away win offers value at odds of 2.65 across multiple bookmakers, including Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 5% edge identified, Falkenberg's continued scoring run coupled with Ljungskile's shaky form makes the visitors an attractive proposition.

Ljungskile

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #6xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Vilmer TyrénFxG 0.31 · xT 0.15
Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
Lukas Lindholm CornerFxG 0.21 · xT 0.01

Falkenberg

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #13xP/match #8Points #3

Key players

Hampus KällströmFxG 0.47 · xT 0.17
Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19
Albin AnderssonFxG 0.44 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Ljungskile – Falkenberg

Predicted score matrix

Falkenberg →

Ljungskile →

0–05.5%

0–17.3%

0–25.6%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.4%

1–07.3%

1–111.7%

1–28.4%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.4%

2–26.2%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.8%

3–14.2%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,49–1,48

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.13

Over 2,557%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Falkenberg or draw (X2)62%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Falkenberg or draw (X2)62%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Albin Andersson to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Albin Andersson to score26%
Melker Nilsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Falkenberg39% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg39% probability@2.75BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Falkenberg39% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ljungskile	X	2 · Falkenberg
Betsafe	2.44	3.44	EV+ 8% 2.75
Betsson	2.44	3.44	EV+ 8% 2.75
Nordicbet	2.44	3.44	EV+ 8% 2.75
Pinnacle	2.44	3.49	EV+ 8% 2.73

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Ljungskile 0Draw 1Falkenberg 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Falkenbergs FF have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ljungskile

Falkenberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ljungskile (29–30)

Falkenberg (42–32)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ljungskile

Falkenberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ljungskile

Falkenberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ljungskile	Falkenberg
Points	25	38
xPoints	30.3	29.8
xG per match	1.5	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.28

Playing style	Ljungskile	Falkenberg
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.47	0.42
xT per match	1.6	1.3
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	26
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.29
Entries into the box per match	17	12
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.72
Passes per match	337	406
Passes against per match	349	385
Switches of play per match	18.9	18.5
Long balls per match	36	34

Set pieces	Ljungskile	Falkenberg
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.14
Corners per match	5.6	4.2
Corners against per match	5.4	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.47

Other	Ljungskile	Falkenberg
Throw-in control	0.54	0.56

The goalkeepers	Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile)	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)
Saves	79	33
Save %	73%	62%
xG prevented	58%	42%
Claims	131 (95%)	98 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ljungskile

Fixtures, form & tips

Falkenberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ljungskile vs Falkenberg according to our model?

The model gives Falkenberg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ljungskile 35%, draw 26%, Falkenberg 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.