Swedish SuperettanSödertälje Fotbollsarena, Södertälje16°2,4 mm13 km/h

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    Nordic UnitedNordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    2–4
    IFK VärnamoIFK VärnamoPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Nordic United (51%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.40 (+14 %)

    Nordic United – IFK Värnamo · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Nordic United 51%X 24%25% IFK Värnamo · 2

    Analysis: Nordic United – IFK Värnamo

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    51% is the magic number as Nordic United prepares to host Värnamo. With the model favoring the hosts at this probability, the odds reflect an edge, particularly with Nordic United available at 2.14 through Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This suggests a potentially profitable opportunity for those backing the home side.

    The expected goals lean toward Nordic United, who average 1.95 expected goals compared to Värnamo's 1.21. Despite Värnamo's impressive unbeaten streak of seven matches, the home side's xG metrics and their ability to capitalize on counter-attacks and crosses give them a solid advantage. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, both point towards tight margins but a slight edge for the hosts.

    With a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% probability of both teams finding the net, the match leans towards a dynamic encounter. While Värnamo's possession-based style may challenge Nordic United's approach, the numbers suggest a 2-1 victory for the hosts. The main takeaway? Explore the value of Nordic United's odds at 2.14 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, as the model offers a clear nod toward the home team's prospects.

    Nordic UnitedNordic United
    Form DDWLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #3xP/match #4Points #5
    Key players
    • Aziz HarabiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.33
    • Kalipha JawlaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.00
    • Shergo ShhabFxG 0.44 · xT -0.03
    IFK VärnamoIFK Värnamo
    Form WDDWD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #4xT #12xP/match #13Points #13
    Key players
    • Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.38
    • Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
    • Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.02
    Final score
    2 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Nordic United 51% · Draw 24% · IFK Värnamo 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Nordic United FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,93fair 5,26-6 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IFK VärnamoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,31fair 13,73-39 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Nordic United – IFK Värnamo

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Värnamo →
    Nordic United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–14.9%
    0–23.1%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–110.3%
    1–26.1%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–08.1%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–05.3%
    3–16.3%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–04.0%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,95–1,21
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    @2.34
    Over 2,561%
    @1.71EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Nordic United to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.17

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Nordic United to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Kalipha Jawla to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Kalipha Jawla to score28%
    • Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.521% probability@5.40Betfair ExchangeEV+14%reference odds
    • 1 · Nordic United51% probability@2.18Betfair ExchangeEV+11%reference odds
    • Over 3.539% probability@2.82Betfair ExchangeEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Nordic UnitedX2 · IFK Värnamo
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 11%
    2.18    		3.803.40
    Betsafe
    EV+ 2%
    2.00    		3.643.46
    Betsson
    EV+ 2%
    2.00    		3.643.46
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 2%
    2.00    		3.643.46
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 2%
    2.00    		3.603.20
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 0%
    1.96    		3.963.48

    Odds updated 9 Sept, 18:31

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    50 %45 %

    2.05 → 1.96

    X+5 %
    27 %22 %

    3.77 → 3.96

    2+4 %
    30 %25 %

    3.36 → 3.48

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Nordic United 1Draw 0IFK Värnamo 0
    Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • IFK Värnamo are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nordic United
    IFK Värnamo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nordic United (34–31)
    IFK Värnamo (26–39)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 426 passningar, xT 3.32AnderssonMohammad Fazal: 233 passningar, xT 0.57FazalJonathan Gürsac: 230 passningar, xT -0.07GürsacElias Durmaz: 212 passningar, xT 1.84DurmazAmar Dzevlan: 171 passningar, xT 0.2DzevlanAziz Harabi: 166 passningar, xT 1.1HarabiEmmanuel Swedi: 152 passningar, xT 0.31SwediTeo Grönborg: 125 passningar, xT 0.02GrönborgNhome Daneyl: 113 passningar, xT 0.04DaneylTheodor Johansson: 109 passningar, xT 0JohanssonMatteus Behnan: 66 passningar, xT 0.08Behnan
    IFK Värnamo
    Johan Rapp: 239 passningar, xT 0.63RappArash Motaraghebjafarpour: 219 passningar, xT 0.89MotaraghebjafarpourAxel Björnström: 176 passningar, xT 1.79BjörnströmSamuel Ohlsson: 153 passningar, xT 0.58OhlssonCarl Johansson: 130 passningar, xT 0.27JohanssonViktor Claesson Cedercrantz: 125 passningar, xT 0.09CedercrantzCalle Johansson: 113 passningar, xT 0.11JohanssonHugo Andersson: 106 passningar, xT 0.02AnderssonHugo Keto: 81 passningar, xT 0.33KetoViktor Claesson: 80 passningar, xT -0.02ClaessonHugo Mella: 79 passningar, xT 0.6Mella
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 426 passningar, xT 3.32AnderssonMohammad Fazal: 233 passningar, xT 0.57FazalJonathan Gürsac: 230 passningar, xT -0.07GürsacElias Durmaz: 212 passningar, xT 1.84DurmazAmar Dzevlan: 171 passningar, xT 0.2DzevlanAziz Harabi: 166 passningar, xT 1.1HarabiEmmanuel Swedi: 152 passningar, xT 0.31SwediTeo Grönborg: 125 passningar, xT 0.02GrönborgNhome Daneyl: 113 passningar, xT 0.04DaneylTheodor Johansson: 109 passningar, xT 0JohanssonMatteus Behnan: 66 passningar, xT 0.08Behnan
    IFK Värnamo
    Johan Rapp: 239 passningar, xT 0.63RappArash Motaraghebjafarpour: 219 passningar, xT 0.89MotaraghebjafarpourAxel Björnström: 176 passningar, xT 1.79BjörnströmSamuel Ohlsson: 153 passningar, xT 0.58OhlssonCarl Johansson: 130 passningar, xT 0.27JohanssonViktor Claesson Cedercrantz: 125 passningar, xT 0.09CedercrantzCalle Johansson: 113 passningar, xT 0.11JohanssonHugo Andersson: 106 passningar, xT 0.02AnderssonHugo Keto: 81 passningar, xT 0.33KetoViktor Claesson: 80 passningar, xT -0.02ClaessonHugo Mella: 79 passningar, xT 0.6Mella

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNordic UnitedIFK Värnamo
    Points3523
    xPoints33.326
    xG per match1.51
    xGA per match1.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.25
    Playing styleNordic UnitedIFK Värnamo
    Build-up efficiency0.370.32
    Field tilt0.520.49
    xT per match1.61.4
    xTA per match1.41.5
    Won balls, offensive half2934
    Pressing intensity0.530.55
    Pressing efficiency0.260.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.31
    Entries into the box per match1815
    Entries into the box against1415
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match369376
    Passes against per match406362
    Switches of play per match17.615.2
    Long balls per match3132
    Set piecesNordic UnitedIFK Värnamo
    xG from free kicks0.140.11
    Corners per match54.6
    Corners against per match4.55.2
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.550.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.58
    OtherNordic UnitedIFK Värnamo
    Throw-in control0.550.47
    The goalkeepersWilliam Eskelinen (Nordic United)Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)
    Saves3670
    Save %63%68%
    xG prevented41%46%
    Claims86 (95%)114 (91%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nordic United vs IFK Värnamo according to our model?

    The model gives Nordic United a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordic United 51%, draw 24%, IFK Värnamo 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.