Swedish SuperettanBorås Arena, Borås13°31,2 mm19 km/h

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    NorrbyNorrbyCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–3
    Landskrona BoISLandskrona BoISPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Landskrona BoIS (44%)

    Norrby – Landskrona BoIS · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Norrby 32%X 24%44% Landskrona BoIS · 2

    Analysis: Norrby – Landskrona BoIS

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Landskrona BoIS's possession-oriented style is set to clash with Norrby's counter-attacking approach, creating a compelling tactical battle. However, the visitors come into this game with a clear edge in overall points (31 compared to Norrby's 23). The single head-to-head clash since 2024, resulting in a draw, offers little insight, and the focus should remain on current trends and expected goals.

    Landskrona's defensive solidity (xGA of 1.4) gives them a slight advantage over a Norrby side that concedes 1.5 xGA per match. Although Norrby outperforms Landskrona in xPoints (32.8 to 28.4), the visitors’ ability to control the game through possession might neutralize Norrby's counter-attacks, especially considering the weather conditions, which favor defensive strategies.

    The model sees the visitors as the more likely winners, assigning them a 44% probability and identifying a potential betting edge with Landskrona's win priced at 2.4 across several bookmakers, including Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This reflects a 5% positive expected value for punters looking to capitalize on the market mispricing.

    With expected goals closely aligned (1.46 for Landskrona, 1.42 for Norrby), the game could be tightly contested, but goals are likely given a 55% chance of exceeding 2.5. Both teams are expected to find the net at 58%, suggesting an open affair despite the forecasted rain, which is already considered in the model's numbers.

    A 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most probable scenario at 12%, yet the lean towards a 1-2 victory for Landskrona, at 8%, cannot be ignored. If you're looking for value, back the visitors at 2.4 for an away win—it's where the sharpest edge lies.

    NorrbyNorrby
    Form DWLDL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #11xP/match #3Points #12
    Key players
    • Julius JohanssonFxG 0.22 · xT 0.15
    • Azeez Temitope YusufFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
    • Olle BacklundRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
    Landskrona BoISLandskrona BoIS
    Form LWDDD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #7xP/match #9Points #7
    Key players
    • Adam EgnellFxG 0.24 · xT 0.33
    • Zakaria LoukiliFxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
    • Constantino CapotondiLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.28
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Norrby 32% · Draw 24% · Landskrona BoIS 44%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Norrby IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,39fair 9,38-21 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Landskrona BOISBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,30fair 8,88-29 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Norrby – Landskrona BoIS

    Predicted score matrix

    Landskrona BoIS →
    Norrby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.0%
    0–17.9%
    0–26.0%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–07.7%
    1–112.0%
    1–28.5%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.7%
    2–18.3%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-28%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,42–1,46
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.22EV+0%
    Over 2,555%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Landskrona BoIS or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Allen Smajic to score14%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Malte Ljungkull to score19%
    • André Alvarez Perez to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Landskrona BoIS44% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Landskrona BoIS44% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Landskrona BoIS44% probability@2.40BetssonEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · NorrbyX2 · Landskrona BoIS
    Betfair Exchange1.101.101.10
    Betsafe2.803.45
    EV+ 5%
    2.40
    Betsson2.803.45
    EV+ 5%
    2.40
    Nordicbet2.803.45
    EV+ 5%
    2.40
    Pinnacle2.743.59
    EV+ 8%
    2.47

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 14:31

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    36 %31 %

    2.83 → 2.74

    X+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.49 → 3.59

    2+5 %
    42 %37 %

    2.36 → 2.47

    Over 2,5+2 %
    60 %55 %

    1.65 → 1.68

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Norrby 0Draw 1Landskrona BoIS 0
    Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Norrby
    Landskrona BoIS
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Norrby (25–28)
    Landskrona BoIS (27–22)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Norrby
    Vidar Svendsén: 259 passningar, xT 0.43SvendsénTure Spendler: 229 passningar, xT 2.22SpendlerJoel Hjalmar: 218 passningar, xT 0.94HjalmarCharlie Axede: 167 passningar, xT 0.68AxedeJohannes Engvall: 166 passningar, xT 0.38EngvallSebastian Banozic: 131 passningar, xT 0.28BanozicJulius Johansson: 126 passningar, xT 0.62JohanssonFilip Gustafsson: 72 passningar, xT -0.02GustafssonAzeez Temitope Yusuf: 65 passningar, xT -0.04YusufOlle Backlund: 58 passningar, xT 0.55BacklundKevin Liimatainen: 58 passningar, xT -0.06Liimatainen
    Landskrona BoIS
    Tobias Karlsson: 440 passningar, xT 0.4KarlssonAndreas Murbeck: 318 passningar, xT 0.27MurbeckGustaf Westström: 314 passningar, xT 1.11WestströmGustaf Bruzelius: 251 passningar, xT 0.26BruzeliusConstantino Capotondi: 181 passningar, xT 1.55CapotondiAndré Alvarez Perez: 176 passningar, xT 0.16PerezZakaria Loukili: 153 passningar, xT 1.33LoukiliAdam Egnell: 147 passningar, xT 0.57EgnellAmr Kaddoura: 142 passningar, xT 0.26KaddouraKota Sakurai: 104 passningar, xT 0.26SakuraiAllen Smajic: 92 passningar, xT 0.08Smajic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Norrby
    Vidar Svendsén: 259 passningar, xT 0.43SvendsénTure Spendler: 229 passningar, xT 2.22SpendlerJoel Hjalmar: 218 passningar, xT 0.94HjalmarCharlie Axede: 167 passningar, xT 0.68AxedeJohannes Engvall: 166 passningar, xT 0.38EngvallSebastian Banozic: 131 passningar, xT 0.28BanozicJulius Johansson: 126 passningar, xT 0.62JohanssonFilip Gustafsson: 72 passningar, xT -0.02GustafssonAzeez Temitope Yusuf: 65 passningar, xT -0.04YusufOlle Backlund: 58 passningar, xT 0.55BacklundKevin Liimatainen: 58 passningar, xT -0.06Liimatainen
    Landskrona BoIS
    Tobias Karlsson: 440 passningar, xT 0.4KarlssonAndreas Murbeck: 318 passningar, xT 0.27MurbeckGustaf Westström: 314 passningar, xT 1.11WestströmGustaf Bruzelius: 251 passningar, xT 0.26BruzeliusConstantino Capotondi: 181 passningar, xT 1.55CapotondiAndré Alvarez Perez: 176 passningar, xT 0.16PerezZakaria Loukili: 153 passningar, xT 1.33LoukiliAdam Egnell: 147 passningar, xT 0.57EgnellAmr Kaddoura: 142 passningar, xT 0.26KaddouraKota Sakurai: 104 passningar, xT 0.26SakuraiAllen Smajic: 92 passningar, xT 0.08Smajic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNorrbyLandskrona BoIS
    Points2331
    xPoints32.828.4
    xG per match1.41.5
    xGA per match1.51.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.39
    Playing styleNorrbyLandskrona BoIS
    Build-up efficiency0.350.32
    Field tilt0.370.56
    xT per match1.41.5
    xTA per match1.71.5
    Won balls, offensive half3030
    Pressing intensity0.540.57
    Pressing efficiency0.250.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.28
    Entries into the box per match1216
    Entries into the box against1713
    Pass completion %0.730.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.76
    Passes per match295431
    Passes against per match462330
    Switches of play per match19.413.3
    Long balls per match3131
    Set piecesNorrbyLandskrona BoIS
    xG from free kicks0.140.18
    Corners per match4.74.9
    Corners against per match5.54.5
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.340.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.440.52
    OtherNorrbyLandskrona BoIS
    Throw-in control0.440.56
    The goalkeepersSebastian Banozic (Norrby)Amr Kaddoura (Landskrona BoIS)
    Saves6346
    Save %69%73%
    xG prevented49%41%
    Claims126 (93%)103 (95%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Norrby
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Landskrona BoIS
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Norrby vs Landskrona BoIS according to our model?

    The model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norrby 32%, draw 24%, Landskrona BoIS 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.