Swedish SuperettanBehrn Arena, Örebro14°12 km/h

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    Örebro SKÖrebro SKPossession control
    vs
    Nordic UnitedNordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Nordic United (48%)

    Örebro SK – Nordic United · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Örebro SK 28%X 24%48% Nordic United · 2

    Analysis: Örebro SK – Nordic United

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The single head-to-head encounter between Örebro SK and Nordic United saw the visitors victorious, but with such a limited sample, it's the current form that draws a clearer picture. Nordic United leads in the league with 35 points compared to Örebro's 20, a gap mirrored by the expected points (xPoints) and goals metrics. The numbers suggest a solid advantage for the visitors, who also possess a sharper attacking edge with an xG of 1.5 per match over Örebro's 0.95.

    Örebro's style revolves around maintaining possession, aiming to control the tempo, but this strategy might play into the hands of Nordic United, who thrive on counter-attacks and crossing opportunities. With Örebro's xGA at 1.3, matching that of Nordic United, the defensive resilience of both teams appears evenly matched on paper. However, the visitors' ability to exploit transitions could prove decisive, particularly if Örebro struggles to break down a well-organized backline.

    The model probabilities underscore Nordic United's strength, assigning them a 48% chance of victory, which translates into a likely scoreline of 1-1 or a narrow 1-2 win in their favor. Goals seem likely, as suggested by the 62% chance for both teams to score and a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals. This analysis leans towards a scoreline with multiple goals, possibly a 1-2 outcome, given the visitors' offensive prowess and the hosts' possession-based vulnerabilities.

    The standout betting value lies with Nordic United's away win, priced at odds of 2.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 48%, providing a significant 24% edge, a strong signal to consider backing the visitors in this encounter.

    Örebro SKÖrebro SK
    Form LDWDL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #14xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Antonio YakoubFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05
    • Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.43
    • Karl HolmbergFxG 0.28 · xT -0.01
    Nordic UnitedNordic United
    Form DDWLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #2xP/match #4Points #6
    Key players
    • Aziz HarabiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.33
    • Kalipha JawlaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.00
    • Shergo ShhabFxG 0.44 · xT -0.03

    Match prediction: Örebro SK – Nordic United

    Predicted score matrix

    Nordic United →
    Örebro SK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–17.4%
    0–27.0%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+2.9%
    1
    1–05.5%
    1–110.7%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.7%
    1–4+3.8%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–17.0%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.8%
    2–4+2.6%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-17%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,34–1,81
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    @2.09
    Over 2,561%
    @1.72EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Nordic United to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.47

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Nordic United to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Kalipha Jawla to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Kalipha Jawla to score28%
    • Edwin Ibrahimbegovic to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Nordic United48% probability@2.84PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
    • 2 · Nordic United48% probability@2.70BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
    • 2 · Nordic United48% probability@2.70BetssonEV+29%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Örebro SKX2 · Nordic United
    Betfair Exchange1.101.111.10
    Betsafe2.433.54
    EV+ 29%
    2.70
    Betsson2.433.54
    EV+ 29%
    2.70
    Nordicbet2.433.54
    EV+ 29%
    2.70
    Pinnacle2.303.60
    EV+ 36%
    2.84

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:10

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Örebro SK 0Draw 0Nordic United 1
    Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Örebro SK
    Nordic United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Örebro SK (21–34)
    Nordic United (34–31)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Örebro SK
    John Stenberg: 289 passningar, xT 0.82StenbergJetmir Haliti: 216 passningar, xT 0.26HalitiVictor Sandberg: 191 passningar, xT 0.53SandbergManasse Kusu: 187 passningar, xT -0.03KusuAhmed Yasin: 175 passningar, xT 0.81YasinSamuel Wikman: 165 passningar, xT 1.41WikmanJacob Ouro Ortmark: 139 passningar, xT 0.42OrtmarkDino Salihovic: 80 passningar, xT 0.09SalihovicKarl Holmberg: 79 passningar, xT -0.05HolmbergJakub Ojrzynski: 78 passningar, xT 0.21OjrzynskiChovanie Shakur Amatkarijo: 77 passningar, xT 0.22Amatkarijo
    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 426 passningar, xT 3.32AnderssonMohammad Fazal: 233 passningar, xT 0.57FazalJonathan Gürsac: 230 passningar, xT -0.07GürsacElias Durmaz: 212 passningar, xT 1.84DurmazAmar Dzevlan: 171 passningar, xT 0.2DzevlanAziz Harabi: 166 passningar, xT 1.1HarabiEmmanuel Swedi: 152 passningar, xT 0.31SwediTeo Grönborg: 125 passningar, xT 0.02GrönborgNhome Daneyl: 113 passningar, xT 0.04DaneylTheodor Johansson: 109 passningar, xT 0JohanssonMatteus Behnan: 66 passningar, xT 0.08Behnan
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Örebro SK
    John Stenberg: 289 passningar, xT 0.82StenbergJetmir Haliti: 216 passningar, xT 0.26HalitiVictor Sandberg: 191 passningar, xT 0.53SandbergManasse Kusu: 187 passningar, xT -0.03KusuAhmed Yasin: 175 passningar, xT 0.81YasinSamuel Wikman: 165 passningar, xT 1.41WikmanJacob Ouro Ortmark: 139 passningar, xT 0.42OrtmarkDino Salihovic: 80 passningar, xT 0.09SalihovicKarl Holmberg: 79 passningar, xT -0.05HolmbergJakub Ojrzynski: 78 passningar, xT 0.21OjrzynskiChovanie Shakur Amatkarijo: 77 passningar, xT 0.22Amatkarijo
    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 426 passningar, xT 3.32AnderssonMohammad Fazal: 233 passningar, xT 0.57FazalJonathan Gürsac: 230 passningar, xT -0.07GürsacElias Durmaz: 212 passningar, xT 1.84DurmazAmar Dzevlan: 171 passningar, xT 0.2DzevlanAziz Harabi: 166 passningar, xT 1.1HarabiEmmanuel Swedi: 152 passningar, xT 0.31SwediTeo Grönborg: 125 passningar, xT 0.02GrönborgNhome Daneyl: 113 passningar, xT 0.04DaneylTheodor Johansson: 109 passningar, xT 0JohanssonMatteus Behnan: 66 passningar, xT 0.08Behnan

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÖrebro SKNordic United
    Points2035
    xPoints25.233.3
    xG per match0.951.5
    xGA per match1.31.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.3
    Playing styleÖrebro SKNordic United
    Build-up efficiency0.370.37
    Field tilt0.520.52
    xT per match1.31.6
    xTA per match1.51.4
    Won balls, offensive half2929
    Pressing intensity0.570.53
    Pressing efficiency0.260.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.27
    Entries into the box per match1218
    Entries into the box against1514
    Pass completion %0.80.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.74
    Passes per match414369
    Passes against per match381406
    Switches of play per match16.117.6
    Long balls per match2931
    Set piecesÖrebro SKNordic United
    xG from free kicks0.130.14
    Corners per match4.75
    Corners against per match54.5
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.55
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.59
    OtherÖrebro SKNordic United
    Throw-in control0.530.55
    The goalkeepersJakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK)William Eskelinen (Nordic United)
    Saves8236
    Save %71%63%
    xG prevented59%41%
    Claims126 (90%)86 (95%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Örebro SK vs Nordic United according to our model?

    The model gives Nordic United a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 28%, draw 24%, Nordic United 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.