01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Östersund to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Swedish SuperettanBehrn Arena, Örebro15°1,5 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
Örebro SKPossession control0–1
ÖstersundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Östersund (50%)
Örebro SK – Östersund · Swedish Superettan
1 · Örebro SK 25%X 25%50% Östersund · 2
25%
25%
50%
Analysis: Örebro SK – Östersund
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Östersund's high press promises to be the defining feature of their matchup against Örebro SK. With a possession-oriented approach, the hosts will likely seek to maintain control, but the visitors' aggressive style could disrupt their rhythm. The model leans towards an Östersunds FK victory, giving them a 50% chance to take all three points, a reflection of their superiority in both form and underlying metrics.
The expected goals tell a story of an Östersund edge, projecting them at 1.59 compared to Örebro's 1.14. This is reinforced by the difference in points – 35 for the visitors against 20 for the hosts – and the xPoints, where Östersund again comes out on top. Despite the historical head-to-head being evenly split, with each side taking two wins from their last five meetings, the small sample size limits its weight. The broader context of Östersund's eight-match unbeaten streak suggests a continuation of their dominance.
Weather conditions indicate light rain, which might suppress the goal tally somewhat, yet the fixture's history of averaging 3.6 goals per match hints at potential fireworks. The probabilities for both teams to score (54%) and over 2.5 goals (51%) hover around the halfway mark, suggesting a cautious lean toward more goals rather than fewer.
Given these dynamics, the most compelling angle lies in betting on an Östersund win. The odds of 2.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all present a 25% value edge according to the model, making it an attractive proposition for those looking to capitalize on Östersund's form and tactical advantage.
Örebro SKForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #14xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Antonio YakoubFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05
- Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.42
- Rasmus Wiedesheim-PaulFxG 0.39 · xT -0.02
ÖstersundForm WWDDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #4xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Simon MarklundRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.22
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
- Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Örebro SK 25% · Draw 25% · Östersund 50%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Östersunds FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,68fair 7,75-1 %
MissMatchresultat - Örebro SKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,34fair 15,04-45 %
MissMatch prediction: Örebro SK – Östersund
Predicted score matrix
Östersund →
Örebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–110.0%
0–28.3%
0–34.4%
0–4+2.5%
1
1–07.1%
1–112.2%
1–29.4%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.2%
2–16.7%
2–25.4%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.6%
3–22.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,14–1,59
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.98
Over 2,551%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Östersund to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Simon Marklund to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Simon Marklund to score30%
- Edwin Ibrahimbegovic to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Östersund50% probability@2.71PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
- 2 · Östersund50% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Östersund50% probability@2.52BetssonEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Örebro SK | X | 2 · Östersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.73 | 3.33 | EV+ 26% 2.52 |
| Betsson | 2.73 | 3.33 | EV+ 26% 2.52 |
| Nordicbet | 2.73 | 3.33 | EV+ 26% 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.33 | EV+ 36% 2.71 |
Odds updated 7 Sept, 18:30
Odds movement
10 %
39 %29 %
2.64 → 2.64
X-5 %
33 %23 %
3.52 → 3.33
2+9 %
43 %33 %
2.49 → 2.71
Over 2,5+2 %
57 %47 %
1.82 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesÖrebro SK 2Draw 1Östersund 2
Goals: 10–8 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Örebro SK
Östersund
Örebro SK (21–33)
Östersund (30–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Örebro SK
Östersund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Örebro SK
Östersund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Örebro SK | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 35 |
| xPoints | 23.3 | 28.2 |
| xG per match | 0.94 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Örebro SK | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 409 | 440 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 342 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Örebro SK | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Other | Örebro SK | Östersund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK) | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 81 | 30 |
| Save % | 71% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 31% |
| Claims | 121 (90%) | 77 (90%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Örebro SK vs Östersund according to our model?
The model gives Östersund a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 25%, draw 25%, Östersund 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.