Swedish SuperettanBehrn Arena, Örebro15°9 km/h

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    Örebro SKÖrebro SKLow block & direct
    vs
    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Varbergs BoIS (48%)

    Örebro SK – Varbergs BoIS · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Örebro SK 29%X 23%48% Varbergs BoIS · 2

    Analysis: Örebro SK – Varbergs BoIS

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Varbergs BoIS have a compelling edge in this encounter, with a 48% model probability suggesting they are the most likely victors at Örebro SK, who sit rooted with just 16 points this season. While Örebro SK's historical head-to-head record against Varbergs BoIS might raise some eyebrows — five matches with a balanced 1W 3D 1L — this sample is far from definitive. The real story emerges from current form, where Varbergs BoIS shine with 34 points to Örebro's 16 and a superior expected points tally of 28.3 to Örebro's 20.9.

    Örebro SK's direct playing style might find itself exposed by Varbergs BoIS's counter-attacking prowess. Expected goals back this assertion: Örebro SK manage just 0.94 xG per match compared to Varbergs BoIS's 1.4. When you factor in their defensive frailties, with an xGA of 1.4 against Varbergs BoIS's 1.3, it's clear which side has the upper hand. The weather, mercifully untroubling this time, doesn't skew these expectations — they are already baked into the model.

    The bookmakers are offering odds of 2.10 with Bet365 on Varbergs BoIS to win, which carries a whiff of value given the 48% probability and Varbergs' tangible form superiority. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-2, lean towards a Varbergs advantage, and a 0-1 outcome isn't far behind in probability. This suggests a close match but one where Varbergs BoIS might just have the cutting edge.

    The over 2.5 goals percentage stands at 61%, suggesting a potential for a lively contest. With both teams to score at 62%, the odds favor some fireworks. Yet, the sharpest angle here is the undervalued Varbergs BoIS win at 2.10. While Örebro SK might have moments of resistance, the numbers speak to Varbergs BoIS carving out a narrow, yet decisive, 2-1 victory.

    Örebro SKÖrebro SK
    Form LDLLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #14xP/match #15Points #15
    Key players
    • Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.43
    • Karl HolmbergFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
    • Ahmed YasinLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoIS
    Form WLWLD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #9xP/match #4Points #3
    Key players
    • Shanyder BorgelinFxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
    • Albin WinboCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.41
    • Erion SadikuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Örebro SK – Varbergs BoIS

    Predicted score matrix

    Varbergs BoIS →
    Örebro SK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–17.4%
    0–26.9%
    0–34.1%
    0–4+2.7%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–110.8%
    1–29.3%
    1–35.5%
    1–4+3.7%
    2
    2–04.0%
    2–17.1%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.8%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–01.8%
    3–13.2%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-17%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,78
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @1.95
    Over 2,561%
    @1.78EV+8%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Varbergs BoIS to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.52

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Varbergs BoIS to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Wilhelm Ärlig to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Wilhelm Ärlig to score29%
    • Manasse Kusu to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Varbergs BoIS48% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • 2 · Varbergs BoIS48% probability@2.55BetssonEV+23%reference odds
    • 2 · Varbergs BoIS48% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Örebro SKX2 · Varbergs BoIS
    Betsafe2.703.34
    EV+ 23%
    2.55
    Betsson2.703.34
    EV+ 23%
    2.55
    Nordicbet2.703.34
    EV+ 23%
    2.55

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 18:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Örebro SK 1Draw 3Varbergs BoIS 1
    Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Örebro SK
    Varbergs BoIS
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Örebro SK (18–31)
    Varbergs BoIS (34–24)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Örebro SK
    Manasse Kusu: 335 passningar, xT 0.21KusuVictor Sandberg: 309 passningar, xT 0.64SandbergChristopher Redenstrand: 289 passningar, xT 1.62RedenstrandJacob Ouro Ortmark: 280 passningar, xT 0.55OrtmarkJohn Stenberg: 274 passningar, xT 1.08StenbergAhmed Yasin: 175 passningar, xT 0.33YasinGiuseppe Bovalina: 147 passningar, xT 1.17BovalinaSamuel Wikman: 132 passningar, xT 0.58WikmanErik McCue: 107 passningar, xT 0.15McCueAntonio Yakoub: 102 passningar, xT -0.02YakoubDino Salihovic: 85 passningar, xT 0.23Salihovic
    Varbergs BoIS
    Emil Hellman: 228 passningar, xT 0.84HellmanGustav Broman: 227 passningar, xT 0.21BromanErion Sadiku: 222 passningar, xT 0.68SadikuEdvin Tellgren: 215 passningar, xT 0.6TellgrenAlbin Winbo: 172 passningar, xT 1.72WinboIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 110 passningar, xT 0.09VidjeskogLucas Sibelius: 100 passningar, xT 0.4SibeliusNiklas Dahlström: 96 passningar, xT 0.13DahlströmNoah Johansson: 76 passningar, xT -0.12JohanssonWilhelm Ärlig: 64 passningar, xT 0.75ÄrligLucas Kåhed: 44 passningar, xT 0.16Kåhed
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Örebro SK
    Manasse Kusu: 335 passningar, xT 0.21KusuVictor Sandberg: 309 passningar, xT 0.64SandbergChristopher Redenstrand: 289 passningar, xT 1.62RedenstrandJacob Ouro Ortmark: 280 passningar, xT 0.55OrtmarkJohn Stenberg: 274 passningar, xT 1.08StenbergAhmed Yasin: 175 passningar, xT 0.33YasinGiuseppe Bovalina: 147 passningar, xT 1.17BovalinaSamuel Wikman: 132 passningar, xT 0.58WikmanErik McCue: 107 passningar, xT 0.15McCueAntonio Yakoub: 102 passningar, xT -0.02YakoubDino Salihovic: 85 passningar, xT 0.23Salihovic
    Varbergs BoIS
    Emil Hellman: 228 passningar, xT 0.84HellmanGustav Broman: 227 passningar, xT 0.21BromanErion Sadiku: 222 passningar, xT 0.68SadikuEdvin Tellgren: 215 passningar, xT 0.6TellgrenAlbin Winbo: 172 passningar, xT 1.72WinboIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 110 passningar, xT 0.09VidjeskogLucas Sibelius: 100 passningar, xT 0.4SibeliusNiklas Dahlström: 96 passningar, xT 0.13DahlströmNoah Johansson: 76 passningar, xT -0.12JohanssonWilhelm Ärlig: 64 passningar, xT 0.75ÄrligLucas Kåhed: 44 passningar, xT 0.16Kåhed

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÖrebro SKVarbergs BoIS
    Points1634
    xPoints20.928.3
    xG per match0.941.4
    xGA per match1.41.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.41
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.22
    Playing styleÖrebro SKVarbergs BoIS
    Build-up efficiency0.370.33
    Field tilt0.510.44
    xT per match1.31.5
    xTA per match1.51.4
    Won balls, offensive half2836
    Pressing intensity0.580.58
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.27
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1613
    Pass completion %0.80.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.69
    Passes per match405290
    Passes against per match383372
    Switches of play per match15.720.2
    Long balls per match2835
    Set piecesÖrebro SKVarbergs BoIS
    xG from free kicks0.130.12
    Corners per match4.94.8
    Corners against per match5.44
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.64
    OtherÖrebro SKVarbergs BoIS
    Throw-in control0.530.43
    The goalkeepersJakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK)Oscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS)
    Saves7341
    Save %70%65%
    xG prevented60%39%
    Claims109 (89%)84 (94%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Örebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS according to our model?

    The model gives Varbergs BoIS a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 29%, draw 23%, Varbergs BoIS 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.