Swedish SuperettanJämtkraft Arena, Östersund9°17 km/h

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    ÖstersundÖstersundPossession & high press
    vs
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IFPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Östersund (59%)

    Östersund – Helsingborgs IF · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Östersund 59%X 24%17% Helsingborgs IF · 2

    Analysis: Östersund – Helsingborgs IF

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Östersund has been riding a wave of resilience, staying unbeaten in their last nine league outings. Hosting Helsingborgs IF, the model gives the hosts a strong 59% chance of victory, a clear testament to their current form and tactical approach. The home team thrives on possession and a high press, setting the stage for a dynamic clash against Helsingborg's more measured control style.

    In terms of expected goals, Östersund boasts a robust 1.95 compared to Helsingborg's 1.01. This stark difference suggests the hosts are well-positioned to dominate the match. Both teams to score is pegged at 55%, indicating a reasonable chance of both finding the net. Yet, with Östersund's xGA per match standing at a solid 1.1 against Helsingborg's more vulnerable 1.5, the scales tip towards the hosts keeping a clean sheet.

    The head-to-head record since 2024, albeit from a small sample size of five matches, shows a balanced outcome, with each team securing a win and sharing three draws. However, form and expected goals offer a more reliable gauge here, both favoring Östersund. The most likely scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, each with a 10% probability, with 2-1 and 2-0 pointing to a home win.

    For bettors, the value lies in backing the home side at odds of 1.91 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where a 14% edge is apparent. The model's lean towards an Östersund victory aligns with recent form and the statistical edge they hold. Expect a 2-0 triumph for the hosts, as they continue their unbeaten streak, with the over 2.5 goals market leaning slightly positive.

    ÖstersundÖstersund
    Form WDDDW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #4xP/match #11Points #4
    Key players
    • Simon MarklundRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
    • Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
    • Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
    Helsingborgs IFHelsingborgs IF
    Form DLDLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #3xP/match #16Points #10
    Key players
    • Max SvenssonLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.50
    • Julian LarssonFxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
    • Alexander JohanssonFxG 0.41 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Östersund – Helsingborgs IF

    Predicted score matrix

    Helsingborgs IF →
    Östersund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–14.9%
    0–22.6%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–110.5%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.9%
    2–110.0%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–06.4%
    3–16.5%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–04.9%
    4+–14.9%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.1-010%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,95–1,01
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @1.95
    Over 2,557%
    @1.85EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Östersund to win59%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Östersund to win59%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Simon Marklund to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Simon Marklund to score30%
    • Daouda Amadou to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.77BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.77BetssonEV+5%reference odds
    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.77NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ÖstersundX2 · Helsingborgs IF
    Betsafe
    EV+ 5%
    1.77    		3.684.41
    Betsson
    EV+ 5%
    1.77    		3.684.41
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 5%
    1.77    		3.684.41
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.72    		3.754.50

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:10

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Östersund 1Draw 3Helsingborgs IF 1
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 1,6)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Östersund are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Östersund
    Helsingborgs IF
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Östersund (31–23)
    Helsingborgs IF (36–44)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Östersund
    Dennis Widgren: 413 passningar, xT 1.85WidgrenSunday Anyanwu: 295 passningar, xT 0.34AnyanwuHugo Azzi: 277 passningar, xT 1.37AzziCurtis Edwards: 269 passningar, xT 1.24EdwardsEmil Özkan: 224 passningar, xT 0.13ÖzkanDaniel Miljanovic: 200 passningar, xT 0.88MiljanovicAmar Begic: 200 passningar, xT -0.1BegicSimon Marklund: 172 passningar, xT 0.81MarklundAssiedou Yannick Armel Adjoumani: 95 passningar, xT 0.56AdjoumaniAbdulla Abodi Qasem: 85 passningar, xT 0.06QasemJonathan Westerberg: 77 passningar, xT 0.37Westerberg
    Helsingborgs IF
    Obafemi Awodesu: 246 passningar, xT 0.15AwodesuSimon Bengtsson: 240 passningar, xT 0.3BengtssonDemba N'Diaye: 231 passningar, xT 0.43N'DiayeJakob Voelkerling Persson: 188 passningar, xT 0.34PerssonDaouda Amadou: 159 passningar, xT 0.24AmadouLukas Kjellnäs: 120 passningar, xT 0.56KjellnäsLoret Sadiku: 91 passningar, xT 0.22SadikuSamuel Asoma: 87 passningar, xT 0.01AsomaErvin Gigovic: 80 passningar, xT 0.3GigovicAdam Akimey: 76 passningar, xT 0.77AkimeyJulian Larsson: 74 passningar, xT 0.23Larsson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Östersund
    Dennis Widgren: 413 passningar, xT 1.85WidgrenSunday Anyanwu: 295 passningar, xT 0.34AnyanwuHugo Azzi: 277 passningar, xT 1.37AzziCurtis Edwards: 269 passningar, xT 1.24EdwardsEmil Özkan: 224 passningar, xT 0.13ÖzkanDaniel Miljanovic: 200 passningar, xT 0.88MiljanovicAmar Begic: 200 passningar, xT -0.1BegicSimon Marklund: 172 passningar, xT 0.81MarklundAssiedou Yannick Armel Adjoumani: 95 passningar, xT 0.56AdjoumaniAbdulla Abodi Qasem: 85 passningar, xT 0.06QasemJonathan Westerberg: 77 passningar, xT 0.37Westerberg
    Helsingborgs IF
    Obafemi Awodesu: 246 passningar, xT 0.15AwodesuSimon Bengtsson: 240 passningar, xT 0.3BengtssonDemba N'Diaye: 231 passningar, xT 0.43N'DiayeJakob Voelkerling Persson: 188 passningar, xT 0.34PerssonDaouda Amadou: 159 passningar, xT 0.24AmadouLukas Kjellnäs: 120 passningar, xT 0.56KjellnäsLoret Sadiku: 91 passningar, xT 0.22SadikuSamuel Asoma: 87 passningar, xT 0.01AsomaErvin Gigovic: 80 passningar, xT 0.3GigovicAdam Akimey: 76 passningar, xT 0.77AkimeyJulian Larsson: 74 passningar, xT 0.23Larsson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÖstersundHelsingborgs IF
    Points3829
    xPoints2924.3
    xG per match1.31.2
    xGA per match1.11.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.24
    Playing styleÖstersundHelsingborgs IF
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.630.54
    xT per match1.61.6
    xTA per match1.11.4
    Won balls, offensive half3633
    Pressing intensity0.550.54
    Pressing efficiency0.290.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.29
    Entries into the box per match1714
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.80.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.74
    Passes per match438417
    Passes against per match350349
    Switches of play per match17.413.6
    Long balls per match4127
    Set piecesÖstersundHelsingborgs IF
    xG from free kicks0.10.08
    Corners per match5.65.3
    Corners against per match3.74.6
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.52
    OtherÖstersundHelsingborgs IF
    Throw-in control0.590.56
    The goalkeepersMelker Uppenberg (Östersund)Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)
    Saves3078
    Save %64%68%
    xG prevented31%46%
    Claims77 (90%)148 (93%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Östersund vs Helsingborgs IF according to our model?

    The model gives Östersund a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Östersund 59%, draw 24%, Helsingborgs IF 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.