Swedish SuperettanJämtkraft Arena, Östersund10°17 km/h

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    ÖstersundÖstersundPossession & high press
    1–1
    BrageBragePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Östersund (59%)

    Östersund – Brage · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Östersund 59%X 23%18% Brage · 2

    Analysis: Östersund – Brage

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Östersund's recent unbeaten streak, now stretching to nine league matches, is a force to reckon with as they prepare to host Brage. With a 59% chance of victory, the model strongly favors the home side. This aligns with the fact that the hosts have dominated their meetings in recent years, boasting three wins in their last five encounters against Brage. Meanwhile, the visitors are struggling, having lost their last three matches, which paints a stark contrast to the hosts' form.

    The underlying numbers suggest a tactical contest defined by possession. Both teams lean towards a possession-based approach, although Östersund combines it with a high pressing style. This could disrupt Brage's rhythm, especially given the latter's defensive vulnerabilities, as evidenced by their 1.4 xGA per match.

    Expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) reveal that while both sides average 1.3 xG per match, Östersund has been more resilient defensively with an xGA of 1.1 compared to Brage's 1.4. The anticipated scorelines hover around a narrow margin, with 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 all at 11% likelihood. The model sees a moderate chance for over 2.5 goals at 53%, but with both teams to score closely rated at 52%, defensive solidity could reign.

    Given the form and statistical trends, a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the home team seems plausible. The model suggests value in backing Östersund at home with odds of 1.83 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presenting an 8% edge. This value is underscored by the hosts' current form and historical edge over Brage, making it a compelling option for those looking to capitalize on the clash.

    ÖstersundÖstersund
    Form WDDDW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #4xP/match #11Points #4
    Key players
    • Simon MarklundRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
    • Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.22
    • Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
    BrageBrage
    Form LDLLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #7xP/match #10Points #14
    Key players
    • Alex MortensenFxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
    • Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
    • Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.65
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Östersund 59% · Draw 23% · Brage 18%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Östersunds FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,09fair 6,26-3 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IK BrageBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,07fair 24,08-29 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Östersund – Brage

    Predicted score matrix

    Brage →
    Östersund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–15.4%
    0–22.7%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–111.0%
    1–25.0%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.5%
    3–16.1%
    3–22.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–04.6%
    4+–14.3%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-011%
    2. 2.1-111%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    1,86–0,94
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.89
    Over 2,553%
    @1.93EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Östersund to win59%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.11

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Östersund to win59%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Simon Marklund to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Simon Marklund to score30%
    • Ozor Victor Okeke to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.76BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.76BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Östersund59% probability@1.76NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ÖstersundX2 · Brage
    Betfair Exchange1.101.101.10
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.76    		3.604.63
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.76    		3.604.63
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.76    		3.604.63
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.75    		3.804.59

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 18:23

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    58 %48 %

    1.76 → 1.75

    X+2 %
    30 %20 %

    3.73 → 3.80

    2+7 %
    28 %18 %

    4.27 → 4.59

    Over 2,5+6 %
    56 %46 %

    1.82 → 1.93

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Östersund 3Draw 1Brage 1
    Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Östersund dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    • Östersund are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
    • IK Brage have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Östersund
    Brage
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Östersund (31–23)
    Brage (35–43)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Östersund
    Dennis Widgren: 413 passningar, xT 1.85WidgrenSunday Anyanwu: 295 passningar, xT 0.34AnyanwuHugo Azzi: 277 passningar, xT 1.37AzziCurtis Edwards: 269 passningar, xT 1.24EdwardsEmil Özkan: 224 passningar, xT 0.13ÖzkanDaniel Miljanovic: 200 passningar, xT 0.88MiljanovicAmar Begic: 200 passningar, xT -0.1BegicSimon Marklund: 172 passningar, xT 0.81MarklundAssiedou Yannick Armel Adjoumani: 95 passningar, xT 0.56AdjoumaniAbdulla Abodi Qasem: 85 passningar, xT 0.06QasemJonathan Westerberg: 77 passningar, xT 0.37Westerberg
    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 278 passningar, xT 0.8StagaardAlexander Zetterström: 261 passningar, xT 0.29ZetterströmLasse Bruun Madsen: 179 passningar, xT 0.05MadsenAlbin Sporrong: 149 passningar, xT 0.79SporrongAnders Hellblom: 118 passningar, xT 0.8HellblomOzor Victor Okeke: 118 passningar, xT 0.22OkekeMalte Persson: 93 passningar, xT 0.61PerssonAlex Mortensen: 89 passningar, xT 0.52MortensenNoah Östberg: 89 passningar, xT 0.62ÖstbergGideon Granström: 82 passningar, xT 0.09GranströmViktor Frodig: 75 passningar, xT 0.27Frodig
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Östersund
    Dennis Widgren: 413 passningar, xT 1.85WidgrenSunday Anyanwu: 295 passningar, xT 0.34AnyanwuHugo Azzi: 277 passningar, xT 1.37AzziCurtis Edwards: 269 passningar, xT 1.24EdwardsEmil Özkan: 224 passningar, xT 0.13ÖzkanDaniel Miljanovic: 200 passningar, xT 0.88MiljanovicAmar Begic: 200 passningar, xT -0.1BegicSimon Marklund: 172 passningar, xT 0.81MarklundAssiedou Yannick Armel Adjoumani: 95 passningar, xT 0.56AdjoumaniAbdulla Abodi Qasem: 85 passningar, xT 0.06QasemJonathan Westerberg: 77 passningar, xT 0.37Westerberg
    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 278 passningar, xT 0.8StagaardAlexander Zetterström: 261 passningar, xT 0.29ZetterströmLasse Bruun Madsen: 179 passningar, xT 0.05MadsenAlbin Sporrong: 149 passningar, xT 0.79SporrongAnders Hellblom: 118 passningar, xT 0.8HellblomOzor Victor Okeke: 118 passningar, xT 0.22OkekeMalte Persson: 93 passningar, xT 0.61PerssonAlex Mortensen: 89 passningar, xT 0.52MortensenNoah Östberg: 89 passningar, xT 0.62ÖstbergGideon Granström: 82 passningar, xT 0.09GranströmViktor Frodig: 75 passningar, xT 0.27Frodig

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceÖstersundBrage
    Points3821
    xPoints2929.4
    xG per match1.31.3
    xGA per match1.11.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.3
    Playing styleÖstersundBrage
    Build-up efficiency0.350.35
    Field tilt0.630.48
    xT per match1.61.6
    xTA per match1.11.5
    Won balls, offensive half3632
    Pressing intensity0.550.54
    Pressing efficiency0.290.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.28
    Entries into the box per match1714
    Entries into the box against1017
    Pass completion %0.80.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.71
    Passes per match439344
    Passes against per match350361
    Switches of play per match17.418.7
    Long balls per match4134
    Set piecesÖstersundBrage
    xG from free kicks0.10.12
    Corners per match5.65.1
    Corners against per match3.75.4
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.51
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.57
    OtherÖstersundBrage
    Throw-in control0.590.55
    The goalkeepersMelker Uppenberg (Östersund)Viktor Frodig (Brage)
    Saves3066
    Save %64%64%
    xG prevented31%45%
    Claims77 (90%)136 (97%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Östersund
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Brage
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Östersund vs Brage according to our model?

    The model gives Östersund a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Östersund 59%, draw 23%, Brage 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.