Swedish SuperettanPåskbergsvallen, Varberg14°30 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    IFK NorrköpingIFK NorrköpingPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · IFK Norrköping (48%)

    Varbergs BoIS – IFK Norrköping · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Varbergs BoIS 28%X 24%48% IFK Norrköping · 2

    Analysis: Varbergs BoIS – IFK Norrköping

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    IFK Norrköping's eight-match unbeaten streak is the standout number here, underscoring their form superiority over Varbergs BoIS. The visitors have also found the net in each of those eight games, hinting at their attacking reliability. While the hosts will likely rely on counter-attacks and crosses, Norrköping’s possession control style gives them an upper hand in dictating play.

    Despite the small sample size in head-to-head statistics between these teams, the broader form lines are more telling. Norrköping also leads in expected goals (1.70 to Varberg's 1.34) and xPoints metrics. This aligns with the model's 48% win probability for Norrköping. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw (11%), but a 1-2 away win (9%) is close behind, which fits Norrköping's current scoring form.

    Given the match's potential for goals, the over 2.5 goals market at 59% leans towards an active match. However, the sharpest angle lies in betting value: the away win at odds 2.09, available across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, represents a slight edge given the model's 48% probability. For those siding with Norrköping's form, this value bet stands out among the options.

    Varbergs BoISVarbergs BoIS
    Form LDLWD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #10xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Shanyder BorgelinFxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
    • Albin WinboCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.39
    • Erion SadikuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
    IFK NorrköpingIFK Norrköping
    Form WWWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Christoffer NymanFxG 0.55 · xT 0.01
    • Moutaz NeffatiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
    • Tim PricaFxG 0.35 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Varbergs BoIS – IFK Norrköping

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Norrköping →
    Varbergs BoIS →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–17.8%
    0–26.9%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–06.1%
    1–111.2%
    1–29.3%
    1–35.3%
    1–4+3.3%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.3%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.5%
    2–4+2.2%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,34–1,70
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,541%
    @2.28
    Over 2,559%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • IFK Norrköping to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.65

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • IFK Norrköping to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Tim Prica to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Tim Prica to score28%
    • Erion Sadiku to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Varbergs BoISX2 · IFK Norrköping
    Betsafe3.363.592.05
    Betsson3.363.592.05
    Nordicbet3.363.592.05
    Pinnacle3.523.712.02

    Odds updated 10 Sept, 10:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an IFK Norrköping win since 5 September — the odds have shortened from 2.13 to 2.02 (−5%).

    1+10 %
    31 %26 %

    3.19 → 3.52

    X+5 %
    29 %24 %

    3.54 → 3.71

    2-5 %
    48 %43 %

    2.13 → 2.02

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Varbergs BoIS 0Draw 0IFK Norrköping 1
    Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • IFK Norrköping FK are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
    • IFK Norrköping FK have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Varbergs BoIS
    IFK Norrköping
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Varbergs BoIS (39–28)
    IFK Norrköping (43–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Varbergs BoIS
    Gustav Broman: 245 passningar, xT 0.69BromanEmil Hellman: 223 passningar, xT 1.17HellmanEdvin Tellgren: 213 passningar, xT 0.39TellgrenErion Sadiku: 204 passningar, xT 0.35SadikuAlbin Winbo: 172 passningar, xT 1.04WinboIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 134 passningar, xT 0.38VidjeskogNoah Johansson: 93 passningar, xT 0.12JohanssonLucas Sibelius: 86 passningar, xT 0.42SibeliusNiklas Dahlström: 84 passningar, xT 0.09DahlströmWilhelm Ärlig: 74 passningar, xT 0.23ÄrligDaniel Strindholm: 58 passningar, xT 0.24Strindholm
    IFK Norrköping
    Aleksander Opsahl: 287 passningar, xT 0.42OpsahlAnton Eriksson: 282 passningar, xT 0.32ErikssonViktor Christiansson: 277 passningar, xT 0.74ChristianssonTure Sandberg: 249 passningar, xT 0.23SandbergMoutaz Neffati: 222 passningar, xT 0.97NeffatiNoel Sernelius: 198 passningar, xT 1.03SerneliusElias Jemal: 170 passningar, xT 0.91JemalRyan Nelson: 164 passningar, xT 1.01NelsonTheo Krantz: 153 passningar, xT 0.24KrantzAlexander Fransson: 84 passningar, xT 0.2FranssonChristoffer Nyman: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Nyman
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Varbergs BoIS
    Gustav Broman: 245 passningar, xT 0.69BromanEmil Hellman: 223 passningar, xT 1.17HellmanEdvin Tellgren: 213 passningar, xT 0.39TellgrenErion Sadiku: 204 passningar, xT 0.35SadikuAlbin Winbo: 172 passningar, xT 1.04WinboIsak Valentin Vidjeskog: 134 passningar, xT 0.38VidjeskogNoah Johansson: 93 passningar, xT 0.12JohanssonLucas Sibelius: 86 passningar, xT 0.42SibeliusNiklas Dahlström: 84 passningar, xT 0.09DahlströmWilhelm Ärlig: 74 passningar, xT 0.23ÄrligDaniel Strindholm: 58 passningar, xT 0.24Strindholm
    IFK Norrköping
    Aleksander Opsahl: 287 passningar, xT 0.42OpsahlAnton Eriksson: 282 passningar, xT 0.32ErikssonViktor Christiansson: 277 passningar, xT 0.74ChristianssonTure Sandberg: 249 passningar, xT 0.23SandbergMoutaz Neffati: 222 passningar, xT 0.97NeffatiNoel Sernelius: 198 passningar, xT 1.03SerneliusElias Jemal: 170 passningar, xT 0.91JemalRyan Nelson: 164 passningar, xT 1.01NelsonTheo Krantz: 153 passningar, xT 0.24KrantzAlexander Fransson: 84 passningar, xT 0.2FranssonChristoffer Nyman: 62 passningar, xT 0.06Nyman

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVarbergs BoISIFK Norrköping
    Points3848
    xPoints30.836.8
    xG per match1.41.8
    xGA per match1.41
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.42
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.27
    Playing styleVarbergs BoISIFK Norrköping
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.440.61
    xT per match1.51.7
    xTA per match1.41.2
    Won balls, offensive half3639
    Pressing intensity0.580.56
    Pressing efficiency0.260.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.3
    Entries into the box per match1416
    Entries into the box against1313
    Pass completion %0.730.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.75
    Passes per match299432
    Passes against per match374328
    Switches of play per match2015.1
    Long balls per match3533
    Set piecesVarbergs BoISIFK Norrköping
    xG from free kicks0.120.2
    Corners per match4.95.3
    Corners against per match4.55.4
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.53
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.55
    OtherVarbergs BoISIFK Norrköping
    Throw-in control0.440.63
    The goalkeepersOscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS)Theo Krantz (IFK Norrköping)
    Saves4167
    Save %65%84%
    xG prevented39%67%
    Claims84 (94%)117 (89%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Varbergs BoIS vs IFK Norrköping according to our model?

    The model gives IFK Norrköping a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varbergs BoIS 28%, draw 24%, IFK Norrköping 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.