Varbergs BoIS vs Oddevold: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan30 August 2026 15:00 CESTPåskbergsvallen, Varberg17°3,7 mm29 km/h

Läs på svenska

Varbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crosses

3–1

OddevoldLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Varbergs BoIS (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Oddevold @ 3.19 (+11 %)

1 · Varbergs BoIS 39%X 26%35% Oddevold · 2

39%

26%

35%

Analysis: Varbergs BoIS – Oddevold

Erik Lindberg · 29 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Varbergs BoIS, known for their counter-attacking prowess, face a stern test against an IK Oddevold side that thrives on defensive solidity and direct play. While Varbergs have a slight edge in expected goals at 1.57 compared to Oddevold's 1.30, the visitors bring a five-match unbeaten streak into this clash, making them a formidable opponent.

The head-to-head record since 2024 is limited to five encounters, with both sides claiming two wins apiece, and one draw. This small sample offers little predictive weight against the current form and expected goals metrics. Oddevold's recent performances have been underpinned by a robust defense, conceding just 1.0 xGA per match, an edge over Varbergs' 1.3. This defensive stability could prove crucial, especially in a match likely influenced by the forecasted rain, which tends to dampen scoring opportunities.

Despite Varbergs' superior points tally of 34 versus Oddevold's 29, the expected points tell a different story, favoring Oddevold with 32.6 against Varbergs' 29.1. This suggests that Oddevold might have been slightly unlucky or underperformed in some of their matches and could be primed for a stronger showing.

With a high-scoring average in their meetings of 3.8 goals, and the model suggesting a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals, bettors could be tempted by a game with multiple goals. However, the forecasted rain might suppress this potential, making the over/under 2.5 market delicate to navigate.

For those eyeing value, the away win at odds of 2.94 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a calculated opportunity. Rated at 35% by the model, this bet carries a 3% edge. While Varbergs BoIS have a slight statistical edge at home, the value leans towards backing Oddevold to continue their unbeaten run.

Varbergs BoIS

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #9xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Albin WinboCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.40
Shanyder BorgelinFxG 0.38 · xT 0.05
Erion SadikuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Oddevold

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #8

Key players

Gustav ForssellFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
Leonardo Farah ShahinFxG 0.43 · xT 0.04

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Varbergs BoIS 39% · Draw 26% · Oddevold 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Varbergs BoISBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,45fair 7,71-3 %

Hit

Matchresultat - IK OddevoldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,67fair 11,31-14 %

Miss

Match prediction: Varbergs BoIS – Oddevold

Predicted score matrix

Oddevold →

Varbergs BoIS →

0–06.0%

0–17.0%

0–24.8%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.9%

1–08.6%

1–111.9%

1–27.5%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–19.1%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.7%

3–14.8%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,57–1,30

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.93

Over 2,555%

@1.91EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Axel Vidjeskog to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Axel Vidjeskog to score24%
Elias Forsberg to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Oddevold35% probability@3.19PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
2 · Oddevold35% probability@3.06BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Oddevold35% probability@3.06BetssonEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Varbergs BoIS	X	2 · Oddevold
Betsafe	2.33	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.06
Betsson	2.33	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.06
Nordicbet	2.33	3.25	EV+ 7% 3.06
Pinnacle	2.29	3.35	EV+ 11% 3.19

Odds updated 30 Aug, 14:29

Odds movement

10 %

45 %35 %

2.28 → 2.29

X-3 %

34 %24 %

3.44 → 3.35

2+7 %

36 %26 %

2.98 → 3.19

Over 2,5+7 %

54 %44 %

1.78 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Varbergs BoIS 2Draw 1Oddevold 2

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
IK Oddevold are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Varbergs BoIS

Oddevold

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Varbergs BoIS (35–26)

Oddevold (33–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Varbergs BoIS

Oddevold

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Varbergs BoIS

Oddevold

The teams in numbers

Performance	Varbergs BoIS	Oddevold
Points	34	29
xPoints	29.1	32.6
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.21

Playing style	Varbergs BoIS	Oddevold
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.43	0.47
xT per match	1.4	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	36	40
Pressing intensity	0.58	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.73	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.7
Passes per match	293	328
Passes against per match	374	434
Switches of play per match	20.2	17.1
Long balls per match	36	29

Set pieces	Varbergs BoIS	Oddevold
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.14
Corners per match	4.7	5.5
Corners against per match	4	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.55

Other	Varbergs BoIS	Oddevold
Throw-in control	0.43	0.43

The goalkeepers	Oscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS)	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)
Saves	41	52
Save %	65%	68%
xG prevented	39%	52%
Claims	84 (94%)	122 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

Varbergs BoIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Oddevold

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Varbergs BoIS vs Oddevold according to our model?

The model gives Varbergs BoIS a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varbergs BoIS 39%, draw 26%, Oddevold 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.