Basel vs Sion: Prediction & Odds (3 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League3 September 2026 20:30 CESTSt. Jakob-Park, Basel21°12 km/h

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BaselPossession control

SionCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Sion (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.67 (+12 %)

1 · Basel 37%X 25%38% Sion · 2

37%

25%

38%

Analysis: Basel – Sion

Anna Karlsson · 1 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Possession control versus counter-attacking precision — that's the battlefield we step into as Basel host Sion. Basel's tendency to dominate possession might seem advantageous, yet there's a tension that hangs in the air; Sion's recent run of scoring in 15 consecutive league matches suggests they can be lethal on the break. Despite the hosts' historical 55% home win rate, the model nudges slightly towards the visitors, with Sion having a 38% probability of clinching the game compared to Basel's 37%.

The head-to-head record since 2023 shows Basel with a slight advantage (3 wins to Sion's 2 in 7 matches), but this small sample size doesn't overshadow the current form where Sion's ability to find the net is critical. Basel's expected goals (xG) per match sit at 1.3, while Sion's is a more robust 2.0. This underlines the visitors' attacking threat, especially through crosses. However, Basel's defense, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.2, is more resilient compared to Sion's 1.8.

With most likely scorelines being 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, this match could tilt either way. The expected goals tally suggests a tight contest, and if Sion can disrupt Basel's possession, they're well-positioned to capitalize on counter-attacks. Yet, the over 2.5 goals probability hanging at 55% is tempered by the value bets available on under 2.5 at odds 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, indicating a potential 9% edge.

All considered, while Sion's goal-scoring streak impresses, the numbers hint at a cautious affair. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most plausible outcome, with the value on the under 2.5 goals market too attractive to ignore.

Basel

Form WLWWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #1xT #9xP/match #8Points #3

Key players

Keigo TsunemotoRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Flavius David DaniliucCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Žan CelarFxG 0.43 · xT -0.03

Sion

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #1xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Winsley BoteliFxG 1.00 · xT 0.09
Numa LavanchyRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.34
Ali KabacalmanCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Basel – Sion

Predicted score matrix

Sion →

Basel →

0–05.9%

0–17.8%

0–25.9%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.6%

1–112.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.3%

2–26.0%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,43–1,46

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.42EV+9%

Over 2,555%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Adrien Llukes to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Žan Celar to score25%
Ali Kabacalman to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.567% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.42BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Basel	X	2 · Sion
Betsafe	2.45	3.45	2.52
Betsson	2.45	3.45	2.52
Nordicbet	2.45	3.45	2.52
Pinnacle	2.45	3.71	EV+ 2% 2.66

Odds updated 2 Sept, 04:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Basel win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.73 to 2.45 (−10%).

1-10 %

39 %34 %

2.73 → 2.45

X+3 %

28 %23 %

3.61 → 3.71

2+9 %

40 %35 %

2.44 → 2.66

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Basel 3Draw 2Sion 2

Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sion have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Basel win 55% of their home matches all-time (40 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Basel

Sion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Basel (10–7)

Sion (9–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Basel

Sion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Basel

Sion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Basel	Sion
Points	10	6
xPoints	6.6	5.6
xG per match	1.3	2
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.45
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.4

Playing style	Basel	Sion
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.45	0.61
xT per match	0.95	1.9
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	19
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	342	433
Passes against per match	346	301
Switches of play per match	31.6	32.4
Long balls per match	30	32

Set pieces	Basel	Sion
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.3	5.2
Corners against per match	6.5	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.44

Other	Basel	Sion
Throw-in control	0.65	0.73

The goalkeepers	Mirko Salvi (Basel)	Anthony Racioppi (Sion)
Saves	13	12
Save %	68%	60%
xG prevented	45%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Basel vs Sion according to our model?

The model gives Sion a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Basel 37%, draw 25%, Sion 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.