Grasshopper vs St. Gallen: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League2 September 2026 20:30 CESTLetzigrund, Zürich20°12 km/h

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GrasshopperPossession control

2–0

St. GallenPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · St. Gallen (60%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.75 (+9 %)

1 · Grasshopper 17%X 23%60% St. Gallen · 2

17%

23%

60%

Analysis: Grasshopper – St. Gallen

Erik Lindberg · 31 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Grasshopper's current trajectory is troubling. With three consecutive losses, they're struggling in the Swiss Super League, while St. Gallen enters this clash as the clear favorite with a 60% chance of victory according to the model. The visitors' recent form and head-to-head dominance—winning five of their last seven encounters—make them the more reliable bet.

Both teams play a possession-based game, but St. Gallen has been more effective at converting control into results. Their edge in expected goals (xG) is significant: 2.4 per match compared to the hosts' 1.4. This suggests that even if Grasshopper can hold the ball, they struggle to translate it into clear chances—unlike their opponents, who have a knack for finding the net.

In terms of scoreline, the model's probabilities hover around a 1-1 draw or a 1-2 win for St. Gallen, with the latter more in line with recent trends. Given the xG data, a 0-1 result isn't out of the question either if Grasshopper can tighten up defensively. The over/under line leans over 2.5 goals (60%), driven by both teams’ tendency to both score and concede.

However, the most compelling angle lies in the betting value on St. Gallen to win. Odds of 1.7 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet provide a 2% edge given the model's 60% probability. It’s a small but meaningful margin for bettors who prefer calculated risks over chasing long shots.

The combination of Grasshopper's recent form and St. Gallen's statistical superiority creates a straightforward narrative. While the hosts may put up a fight, the numbers suggest a controlled display by the visitors, who have every reason to take all three points.

Grasshopper

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #5xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Samuel Sebastian KrasniqiLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.38
Tim MeyerCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Amir Malush AbrashiCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.04

St. Gallen

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #1xGA #6xT #7xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Lukas GortlerFxG 0.46 · xT 0.21
Aliou BaldeLWxG 0.50 · xT 0.15
Leon FrokajFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Grasshopper 17% · Draw 23% · St. Gallen 60%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - St. GallenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,89fair 5,50-29 %

Miss

Match prediction: Grasshopper – St. Gallen

Predicted score matrix

St. Gallen →

Grasshopper →

0–04.8%

0–18.2%

0–28.1%

0–35.1%

0–4+3.7%

1–05.1%

1–110.6%

1–29.7%

1–36.2%

1–4+4.5%

2–03.3%

2–16.2%

2–25.9%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.7%

3–01.3%

3–12.5%

3–22.4%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-18%
4.0-28%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,20–1,90

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.62EV+5%

Over 2,560%

@1.43

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Gallen to win60%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Gallen to win60%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jordi Quintillà Guasch to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jordi Quintillà Guasch to score22%
Tim Meyer to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
2 · St. Gallen60% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Grasshopper	X	2 · St. Gallen
Betsafe	3.95	3.85	EV+ 3% 1.72
Betsson	3.95	3.85	EV+ 3% 1.72
Nordicbet	3.95	3.85	EV+ 3% 1.72
Pinnacle	4.25	4.22	EV+ 5% 1.76

Odds updated 2 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

25 %20 %

4.48 → 4.25

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.21 → 4.22

2+6 %

58 %53 %

1.67 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 22 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Grasshopper 1Draw 1St. Gallen 5

Goals: 5–13 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

St. Gallen dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
Grasshopper have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Grasshopper

St. Gallen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Grasshopper (5–12)

St. Gallen (10–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Grasshopper

St. Gallen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Grasshopper

St. Gallen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Grasshopper	St. Gallen
Points	1	7
xPoints	4.8	6.7
xG per match	1.4	2.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.64
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.32

Playing style	Grasshopper	St. Gallen
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.33
Field tilt	0.53	0.59
xT per match	1.2	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	0.5
Won balls, offensive half	26	37
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.46
Entries into the box per match	13	21
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.68	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.61
Passes per match	289	293
Passes against per match	369	229
Switches of play per match	14.9	19.8
Long balls per match	24	35

Set pieces	Grasshopper	St. Gallen
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.06
Corners per match	4.7	6.7
Corners against per match	5.2	4.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.65

Other	Grasshopper	St. Gallen
Throw-in control	0.68	0.64

The goalkeepers	Justin Hammel (Grasshopper)	Lawrence Ati Zigi (St. Gallen)
Saves	11	4
Save %	48%	36%
xG prevented	24%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Grasshopper

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Gallen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Grasshopper vs St. Gallen according to our model?

The model gives St. Gallen a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grasshopper 17%, draw 23%, St. Gallen 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.