Lausanne Sport vs Servette: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League13 September 2026 16:30 CESTStade de la Tuilière, Lausanne20°8 km/h

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Lausanne SportPossession control

ServettePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Servette (51%)

1 · Lausanne Sport 22%X 27%51% Servette · 2

22%

27%

51%

Analysis: Lausanne Sport – Servette

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Servette's dominance in this fixture adds a layer of intrigue to their visit to Lausanne Sport. Historically, they have the upper hand with four wins in the last eight meetings, a modest sample that nonetheless suggests a pattern. Yet, it's worth noting that Lausanne have been surprisingly resilient this season, leading on points with six compared to Servette's four. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Servette's expected goals (xG) of 1.70 per match dwarfs Lausanne's 1.07, pointing to a more potent attacking threat. This disparity aligns with their playing style, both sides favoring possession control, but Servette's execution appears sharper. Defensively, the hosts have a slight edge, conceding fewer expected goals against (xGA) per match compared to their visitors. It suggests Lausanne might have the ability to stifle Servette's advances, but the visitors’ superior attacking metrics could tip the balance.

The model's most likely scorelines are revealing. A 1-1 draw leads at 12%, but Servette winning 0-1 or 1-2 both come in at 10%. These probabilities underscore the visitors’ potential to edge out a result, even if narrowly. With the model giving Servette a 51% chance of winning, their status as favorites is clear, despite their current lower points tally.

For those seeking value, the odds for a Servette win with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a tempting proposition at 2.08. Given the model's 51% confidence, there's a 7% edge, making this an attractive option for the shrewd bettor. While the over 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 52%, the numbers suggest a slight lean towards over, but it's the away win that's the sharpest play here.

Lausanne Sport

Form DLLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #12xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Beyatt LekoueiryRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01

Servette

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #6xP/match #6Points #12

Key players

Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Samuel MrazFxG 0.87 · xT -0.02
Tiemoko OuattaraLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Lausanne Sport – Servette

Predicted score matrix

Servette →

Lausanne Sport →

0–06.6%

0–110.3%

0–29.0%

0–35.1%

0–4+3.2%

1–06.4%

1–111.7%

1–29.7%

1–35.5%

1–4+3.4%

2–03.6%

2–16.1%

2–25.2%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.3%

3–12.2%

3–21.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,07–1,70

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.23EV+5%

Over 2,552%

@1.66

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Servette to win51%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Servette to win51%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Samuel Mráz to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Samuel Mráz to score26%
David Marc Michel Douline to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Servette51% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Servette51% probability@2.08BetssonEV+7%reference odds
2 · Servette51% probability@2.08NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lausanne Sport	X	2 · Servette
Betsafe	3.10	3.45	EV+ 7% 2.08
Betsson	3.10	3.45	EV+ 7% 2.08
Nordicbet	3.10	3.45	EV+ 7% 2.08
Pinnacle	3.42	3.65	EV+ 5% 2.05

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:04

Odds movement

1+5 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.42

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.68 → 3.65

2-3 %

48 %43 %

2.11 → 2.05

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Lausanne Sport 2Draw 2Servette 4

Goals: 9–13 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Servette dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lausanne Sport

Servette

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lausanne Sport (7–10)

Servette (4–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Servette

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lausanne Sport

Servette

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lausanne Sport	Servette
Points	6	4
xPoints	7.3	8.6
xG per match	0.76	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.17

Playing style	Lausanne Sport	Servette
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.53
xT per match	0.72	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	20	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	7	19
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.7
Passes per match	330	378
Passes against per match	337	307
Switches of play per match	37.3	23.2
Long balls per match	42	33

Set pieces	Lausanne Sport	Servette
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.1
Corners per match	3.5	6.9
Corners against per match	5.2	4.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.6

Other	Lausanne Sport	Servette
Throw-in control	0.72	0.76

The goalkeepers	Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)
Saves	29	13
Save %	74%	68%
xG prevented	56%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lausanne Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Servette

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lausanne Sport vs Servette according to our model?

The model gives Servette a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lausanne Sport 22%, draw 27%, Servette 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.