Swiss Super LeagueSwissporarena, Luzern19°2,7 mm4 km/h

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    LuzernLuzernCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Lausanne SportLausanne SportPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Luzern (42%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.45 (+8 %)

    Luzern – Lausanne Sport · Swiss Super League

    1 · Luzern 42%X 27%31% Lausanne Sport · 2

    Analysis: Luzern – Lausanne Sport

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Luzern holds a compelling historical advantage against Lausanne Sport, having never lost in their last eight encounters. Yet, despite this dominance, it's Lausanne Sport who comes into this match with the momentum, boasting five points to Luzern's zero in the current season. The tension in this matchup is palpable, with Luzern's counter-attacking prowess and cross-heavy approach facing off against Lausanne Sport's possession-based strategy.

    Luzern's expected goals of 1.65 per match suggest they are likely to find the back of the net; however, their defensive frailty, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.5, might just hand Lausanne Sport the opportunities they need. Lausanne Sport's xGA is a mere 0.97, revealing a potentially tighter defense that Luzern will need to unlock if they are to capitalize on their historical superiority.

    With 3.4 goals per game on average in this fixture, the temptation might be to lean towards a high-scoring encounter. Yet, the smart money could be on a tighter affair. The odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet for under 2.5 goals stand at an attractive 2.45, with a value edge of 8% according to the model. This suggests that despite history, the expected goals and both teams' playing styles could lean this game towards a less prolific outing.

    Ultimately, the numbers suggest a cagey 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, which aligns with the model's 12% probability for that scoreline. But for those seeking a sharper angle in this matchup, betting on under 2.5 goals could provide the value, especially considering the odds and potential defensive setups.

    LuzernLuzern
    Form WWLLD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #2xP/match #11Points #12
    Key players
    • Lars VilligerFxG 0.32 · xT 0.29
    • Matteo Di GiustoLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
    • Tyron OwusuCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
    Lausanne SportLausanne Sport
    Form LLDWD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #2xT #10xP/match #9Points #4
    Key players
    • Beyatt LekoueiryRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
    • Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
    • Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01

    Match prediction: Luzern – Lausanne Sport

    Predicted score matrix

    Lausanne Sport →
    Luzern →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–16.5%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–111.6%
    1–27.2%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–15.1%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.2-07%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,65–1,28
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.45EV+8%
    Over 2,556%
    @1.49

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Luzern or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Luzern or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb to score24%
    • Abdou Karim Sow to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.544% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    • Under 2.544% probability@2.45BetssonEV+8%reference odds
    • Under 2.544% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · LuzernX2 · Lausanne Sport
    Betsafe1.903.70
    EV+ 5%
    3.40
    Betsson1.903.70
    EV+ 5%
    3.40
    Nordicbet1.903.70
    EV+ 5%
    3.40

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 09:35

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    50 %45 %

    1.92 → 1.90

    X-1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.75 → 3.70

    2+3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.30 → 3.40

    Over 2,50 %
    65 %60 %

    1.49 → 1.49

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Luzern 4Draw 4Lausanne Sport 0
    Goals: 20–7 (⌀ 3,4)

    Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Luzern dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Luzern
    Lausanne Sport
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Luzern (3–8)
    Lausanne Sport (4–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Luzern
    Stefan Knezevic: 86 passningar, xT 0.12KnezevicSimon Simoni: 84 passningar, xT 0.12SimoniRuben Dantas Fernandes: 76 passningar, xT 0.8FernandesLoic Luthi: 75 passningar, xT 0.02LuthiMatteo Di Giusto: 74 passningar, xT 0.59GiustoPius Dorn: 72 passningar, xT 0.1DornLeonardo Bertone: 70 passningar, xT 0.15BertoneLucas Ferreira: 41 passningar, xT 0.07FerreiraTyron Owusu: 30 passningar, xT 0.03OwusuAndrejs Ciganiks: 28 passningar, xT 0.06CiganiksOscar Kabwit Tshikomb: 26 passningar, xT 0.18Tshikomb
    Lausanne Sport
    Kevin Mouanga: 152 passningar, xT 0.12MouangaJamie Roche: 141 passningar, xT -0.02RocheAbdou Karim Sow: 137 passningar, xT 0.15SowBrandon Soppy: 101 passningar, xT 0.14SoppyMorgan Poaty: 98 passningar, xT 0.24PoatyOlivier da Costa Custodio: 89 passningar, xT 0.04CustodioMelvin Feyçal Mastil: 60 passningar, xT 0.09MastilBeyatt Lekoueiry: 56 passningar, xT 0.56LekoueiryFlorent Mollet: 55 passningar, xT -0.03MolletNathan Jerome Chatoyer Butler-Oyedeji: 38 passningar, xT -0.07Butler-OyedejiSékou Koné: 36 passningar, xT 0.19Koné
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Luzern
    Stefan Knezevic: 86 passningar, xT 0.12KnezevicSimon Simoni: 84 passningar, xT 0.12SimoniRuben Dantas Fernandes: 76 passningar, xT 0.8FernandesLoic Luthi: 75 passningar, xT 0.02LuthiMatteo Di Giusto: 74 passningar, xT 0.59GiustoPius Dorn: 72 passningar, xT 0.1DornLeonardo Bertone: 70 passningar, xT 0.15BertoneLucas Ferreira: 41 passningar, xT 0.07FerreiraTyron Owusu: 30 passningar, xT 0.03OwusuAndrejs Ciganiks: 28 passningar, xT 0.06CiganiksOscar Kabwit Tshikomb: 26 passningar, xT 0.18Tshikomb
    Lausanne Sport
    Kevin Mouanga: 152 passningar, xT 0.12MouangaJamie Roche: 141 passningar, xT -0.02RocheAbdou Karim Sow: 137 passningar, xT 0.15SowBrandon Soppy: 101 passningar, xT 0.14SoppyMorgan Poaty: 98 passningar, xT 0.24PoatyOlivier da Costa Custodio: 89 passningar, xT 0.04CustodioMelvin Feyçal Mastil: 60 passningar, xT 0.09MastilBeyatt Lekoueiry: 56 passningar, xT 0.56LekoueiryFlorent Mollet: 55 passningar, xT -0.03MolletNathan Jerome Chatoyer Butler-Oyedeji: 38 passningar, xT -0.07Butler-OyedejiSékou Koné: 36 passningar, xT 0.19Koné

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLuzernLausanne Sport
    Points05
    xPoints23.6
    xG per match1.90.65
    xGA per match2.50.97
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.230.12
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.460.4
    Playing styleLuzernLausanne Sport
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.510.53
    xT per match1.70.67
    xTA per match1.40.79
    Won balls, offensive half1822
    Pressing intensity0.260.24
    Pressing efficiency0.270.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.28
    Entries into the box per match156
    Entries into the box against1811
    Pass completion %0.730.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.68
    Passes per match294338
    Passes against per match361308
    Switches of play per match23.431.6
    Long balls per match2932
    Set piecesLuzernLausanne Sport
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match6.83.8
    Corners against per match4.43.5
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.58
    First touch, defensive corners %0.220.36
    OtherLuzernLausanne Sport
    Throw-in control0.710.72
    The goalkeepersSimon Simoni (Luzern)Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)
    Saves169
    Save %67%75%
    xG prevented37%68%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Luzern vs Lausanne Sport according to our model?

    The model gives Luzern a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Luzern 42%, draw 27%, Lausanne Sport 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.