Luzern vs Vaduz: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League2 September 2026 21:30 CESTSwissporarena, Luzern19°12 km/h

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LuzernCounter-attacks & crosses

2–1

VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Luzern (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vaduz @ 4.70 (+63 %)

1 · Luzern 40%X 25%35% Vaduz · 2

40%

25%

35%

Analysis: Luzern – Vaduz

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The 40% win probability for Luzern stands out in a tightly matched contest. Their slight model favoring comes despite Vaduz's edge in expected goals per match, leading to a compelling clash of styles. Both teams lean heavily on counter attacks and crosses, suggesting a tactical mirror that may cancel out distinct advantages. With Luzern having a slight points advantage, Vaduz's higher expected points and superior xG per match suggest a possible underestimation of their threat.

The numbers indicate a close affair, with a 1-1 draw emerging as the most probable scoreline at 11%. However, the model sees potential for a sneaky 2-1 victory either way at 8%. The expected goals for Luzern (1.54) and Vaduz (1.58) suggest an open game, aligning with the 60% probability for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams scoring. Luzern's marginally better defensive record (xGA 2.1 vs. Vaduz's 2.2) might just tip the balance in a match likely defined by fine margins.

For those searching for value, the away win for Vaduz is enticingly priced at 4.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 35% estimation of a Vaduz win offers a 56% edge, positioning it as the sharpest angle to exploit.

Luzern

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #6xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Matteo Di GiustoLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.12
Daniel MikołajewskiFxG 0.26 · xT 0.29
Bung Meng FreimannCBxG 0.32 · xT 0.13

Vaduz

Form LLLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #11xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Juan Ignacio CabreraLWxG 0.51 · xT 0.07
Lutfi DalipiCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.21
Liridon BerishaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Luzern 40% · Draw 25% · Vaduz 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VaduzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,47fair 7,46+0 %

Miss

Matchresultat - LuzernBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,20fair 7,85-59 %

Miss

Match prediction: Luzern – Vaduz

Predicted score matrix

Vaduz →

Luzern →

0–04.7%

0–16.6%

0–25.5%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.6%

1–06.5%

1–111.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.2%

2–18.3%

2–26.5%

2–33.5%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.7%

3–14.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,54–1,58

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@3.25EV+14%

Over 2,560%

@1.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Luzern or draw (1X)61%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Luzern or draw (1X)61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score23%
Leonardo Fabrizio Bertone to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vaduz35% probability@4.70Betfair ExchangeEV+63%reference odds
2 · Vaduz35% probability@4.52PinnacleEV+56%reference odds
2 · Vaduz35% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+42%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Luzern	X	2 · Vaduz
Betfair Exchange	1.47	EV+ 1% 3.95	EV+ 63% 4.70
Betsafe	1.65	EV+ 3% 4.05	EV+ 42% 4.10
Betsson	1.65	EV+ 3% 4.05	EV+ 42% 4.10
Nordicbet	1.65	EV+ 3% 4.05	EV+ 42% 4.10
Pinnacle	1.70	EV+ 11% 4.34	EV+ 56% 4.52

Odds updated 2 Sept, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Vaduz win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 5.24 to 4.52 (−14%).

1+7 %

60 %55 %

1.59 → 1.70

X+4 %

25 %20 %

4.16 → 4.34

2-14 %

23 %18 %

5.24 → 4.52

Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Luzern

Vaduz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Luzern (5–9)

Vaduz (12–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Luzern

Vaduz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Luzern

Vaduz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Luzern	Vaduz
Points	5	3
xPoints	5.7	6.8
xG per match	1.4	2
xGA per match	2.1	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.58

Playing style	Luzern	Vaduz
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.29
Field tilt	0.41	0.41
xT per match	1.1	0.68
xTA per match	1.2	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	20	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.29
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	17	21
Pass completion %	0.7	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.7
Passes per match	259	383
Passes against per match	366	324
Switches of play per match	22.1	21.9
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	Luzern	Vaduz
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.06
Corners per match	6.1	4.1
Corners against per match	5.9	8.5
xG per corner	0.02	0
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.51

Other	Luzern	Vaduz
Throw-in control	0.71	0.69

The goalkeepers	Simon Simoni (Luzern)	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)
Saves	16	15
Save %	67%	58%
xG prevented	37%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Luzern

Fixtures, form & tips

Vaduz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Luzern vs Vaduz according to our model?

The model gives Luzern a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Luzern 40%, draw 25%, Vaduz 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.