01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Servette to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Swiss Super LeagueStade de Genève, Genève20°16 km/h
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ServettePossession control1–1
LuzernCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Servette (53%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.73 (+6 %)
Servette – Luzern · Swiss Super League
1 · Servette 53%X 25%22% Luzern · 2
53%
25%
22%
Analysis: Servette – Luzern
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The numbers suggest Servette should edge this contest, but not without a struggle. Despite the hosts' historical dominance over Luzern, leading the head-to-head with 4 wins and 4 draws in their last 8 matches, recent form and expected goal metrics paint a more balanced picture. Servette's possession-focused style contrasts sharply with Luzern's counter-attacking approach, which might lead to a tighter game than historical averages suggest.
With Servette boasting a 53% win probability and a slight edge in expected goals (1.81 to Luzern's 1.35), the home team is favored. Yet, the most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw at 11%, indicating a competitive match. While the 2-1 scoreline for the hosts follows closely behind at 9%, Servette's lack of recent wins in terms of points (3 compared to Luzern's 4) and their comparable xPoints (4.5 vs 4.6) underline the visitors' potential to disrupt expectations.
The clash of styles could limit the scoring opportunities, despite the model's suggestion of a 61% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a high both teams to score probability at 62%. Servette's ability to control possession might stifle Luzern's counter-attacks, causing fewer goals than the 4.2 per game average seen historically in this fixture.
Where the betting market seems to offer value is in the under 3.5 goals line, available at odds of 1.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This is rated at 61% by the model, presenting a 1% edge. Given the recent data and tactical matchup, a cautious approach might be prudent, with a 2-1 victory for Servette looking plausible but far from certain.
ServetteForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #3xP/match #4Points #8
Key players
- Tiemoko OuattaraFxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
- Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
- Samuel MrazFxG 0.66 · xT 0.02
LuzernForm WLLDW
League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #5xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Lars VilligerFxG 0.32 · xT 0.29
- Matteo Di GiustoLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
- Daniel MikołajewskiLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.34
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Servette 53% · Draw 25% · Luzern 22%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LuzernBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,40fair 10,48-20 %
MissMatchresultat - ServetteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,47fair 5,83-23 %
MissMatch prediction: Servette – Luzern
Predicted score matrix
Luzern →
Servette →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.4%
0–23.9%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–07.3%
1–110.7%
1–27.0%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.4%
2–26.3%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.7%
3–23.8%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-07%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,81–1,35
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.42
Over 2,561%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Servette to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Jérémy Bruno Guillemenot to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Jérémy Bruno Guillemenot to score23%
- David Marc Michel Douline to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.561% probability@1.73PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- X · Draw25% probability@4.08PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Servette53% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Servette | X | 2 · Luzern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 0% 1.88 | EV+ 2% 4.08 | 3.82 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:36
Odds movement
10 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.88
X+2 %
26 %21 %
4.00 → 4.08
2+6 %
28 %23 %
3.62 → 3.82
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesServette 4Draw 4Luzern 0
Goals: 20–14 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Servette dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 8 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Servette
Luzern
Servette (3–4)
Luzern (4–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Servette
Luzern
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Servette
Luzern
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Servette | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| Playing style | Servette | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 37 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 23 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 259 |
| Passes against per match | 282 | 333 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.5 | 22.8 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Servette | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.35 |
| Other | Servette | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette) | Simon Simoni (Luzern) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 16 |
| Save % | 63% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 26% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Servette vs Luzern according to our model?
The model gives Servette a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Servette 53%, draw 25%, Luzern 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.