St. Gallen vs Thun: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Swiss Super League30 August 2026 16:30 CESTKybunpark, St. Gallen20°14 km/h

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St. GallenPossession control

3–4

ThunCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · St. Gallen (59%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.97 (+14 %)

1 · St. Gallen 59%X 24%17% Thun · 2

59%

24%

17%

Analysis: St. Gallen – Thun

Marcus Johansson · 29 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

St. Gallen holds a distinct advantage heading into their matchup against Thun, as underscored by a 59% probability of victory. The model's numbers favor the hosts, reflecting their superior recent form. With an unbeaten streak in their last six league games, St. Gallen's possession-based strategy seems poised to control the flow against Thun's counter-attacking and crossing tactics.

Despite the small sample size of recent head-to-head meetings — just four since 2023 — these encounters have been tight, with each team securing a single victory and sharing two draws. However, league form and expected goals lean decisively in favor of St. Gallen. They boast a significant edge in both xG and xGA per match, averaging 2.4 to Thun's 1.4 and conceding 1.5 to Thun's 2.6. This statistical superiority suggests that the hosts could find the net more than once.

The model lists a 2-1 victory for St. Gallen as the most probable outcome, supported by their expected goals of 2.12. Although Thun will look to exploit any defensive lapses through quick transitions, their chances are limited, reflected in their lower xG of 1.19. The probabilities suggest a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, indicating potential for an open game.

Yet, the sharp betting angle might lie in the contrary value on under 2.5 goals, with an EV+ at odds of 3.1 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite the forecasted goal potential, the model rates the under at 36%, representing a notable 11% edge. In a match where possession could dominate over conversion, this contrarian view could yield returns.

St. Gallen

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #9xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Lukas GortlerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.25
Aliou BaldeLWxG 0.67 · xT -0.02
Lukas DaschnerCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.15

Thun

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #10xP/match #12Points #9

Key players

Marc GutbubFxG 0.46 · xT 0.00
Lucien DahlerRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Fabio Saiz PennarossaFxG 0.02 · xT 0.06

Final score

3 – 4

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Gallen 59% · Draw 24% · Thun 17%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - St. GallenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,28fair 4,55-28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - ThunBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,01fair 14,78-39 %

Hit

Match prediction: St. Gallen – Thun

Predicted score matrix

Thun →

St. Gallen →

0–03.9%

0–14.1%

0–22.6%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–07.5%

1–19.5%

1–25.5%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.2%

2–19.8%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–05.8%

3–16.9%

3–24.1%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–05.1%

4+–16.0%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,12–1,19

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@3.00EV+7%

Over 2,564%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Gallen to win59%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Gallen to win59%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Jordi Quintillà Guasch to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Jordi Quintillà Guasch to score23%
Leonardo Fabrizio Bertone to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.558% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
Under 3.558% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
Under 3.558% probability@1.88BetssonEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Gallen	X	2 · Thun
Betsafe	1.60	EV+ 2% 4.30	4.30
Betsson	1.60	EV+ 2% 4.30	4.30
Nordicbet	1.60	EV+ 2% 4.30	4.30
Pinnacle	1.67	EV+ 3% 4.35	4.71

Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:31

Odds movement

1+2 %

61 %56 %

1.64 → 1.67

X+3 %

24 %19 %

4.21 → 4.35

20 %

23 %18 %

4.71 → 4.71

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

St. Gallen 1Draw 2Thun 1

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

St. Gallen are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Gallen

Thun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Gallen (7–5)

Thun (5–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Thun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Thun

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Gallen	Thun
Points	7	3
xPoints	5.1	2.7
xG per match	2.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	2.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.68	0.45
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.38

Playing style	St. Gallen	Thun
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.53	0.38
xT per match	0.83	0.81
xTA per match	0.59	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	41	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.43	0.28
Entries into the box per match	21	13
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.64	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.62
Passes per match	273	287
Passes against per match	268	346
Switches of play per match	19.7	23.3
Long balls per match	38	30

Set pieces	St. Gallen	Thun
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.15
Corners per match	7.1	5
Corners against per match	6	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	St. Gallen	Thun
Throw-in control	0.65	0.66

The goalkeepers	Lawrence Ati Zigi (St. Gallen)	Niklas Steffen (Thun)
Saves	3	15
Save %	50%	58%
xG prevented	59%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Gallen

Fixtures, form & tips

Thun

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Gallen vs Thun according to our model?

The model gives St. Gallen a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Gallen 59%, draw 24%, Thun 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.