Thun vs Grasshopper: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League12 September 2026 18:00 CESTStockhorn Arena, Thun16°14 km/h

Läs på svenska

ThunCounter-attacks & crosses

GrasshopperCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Thun (51%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.75 (+7 %)

1 · Thun 51%X 25%24% Grasshopper · 2

51%

25%

24%

Analysis: Thun – Grasshopper

Marcus Johansson · 11 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Grasshopper's ability to find the net in nine consecutive league matches highlights their offensive consistency, despite their lower probability of winning. Their counterattack and crossing strategy will be tested against Thun, a team that excels in a similar style at home. The hosts have historically been strong on their turf, winning 57% of their matches, which gives them a tangible edge in this encounter.

The head-to-head record, albeit small with just three matches, leans heavily towards Thun, who remain undefeated against Grasshopper since 2023. The Swiss Super League's current standings show Thun slightly ahead on points, yet Grasshopper's superior expected goals per match and expected points suggest they could pose a significant threat.

Both sides' preference for quick transitions and wide play could lead to an open game. However, the expected goals and model predictions paint a more nuanced picture. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, aligning with the 62% likelihood of both teams scoring. The data suggests a 61% chance for the match to exceed 2.5 goals, but the real betting value lies elsewhere.

With a calculated under 3.5 goals estimate at odds of 1.65, available across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there’s a small EV+ opportunity here. While some might expect a high-scoring affair given both teams' attacking prowess, the under 3.5 market appears slightly mispriced. The model's 61% confidence in this outcome translates into a 1% edge — a subtle but noteworthy angle for punters looking to capitalize on tight margins in the Swiss Super League.

Thun

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #7

Key players

Marc GutbubFxG 0.47 · xT 0.00
Brighton LabeauFxG 0.31 · xT 0.17
Dorian DerbaciFxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

Grasshopper

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #5xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Samuel Sebastian KrasniqiLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.39
Tim MeyerCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Nikolas MuciFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Thun – Grasshopper

Predicted score matrix

Grasshopper →

Thun →

0–04.5%

0–15.3%

0–23.7%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.4%

1–110.6%

1–26.8%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–19.5%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.4%

3–15.8%

3–23.8%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.0%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,84–1,33

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.58

Over 2,561%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Thun to win51%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Thun to win51%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score36%
Tim Meyer to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.561% probability@1.75PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 3.561% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Under 3.561% probability@1.65BetssonEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Thun	X	2 · Grasshopper
Betsafe	1.75	3.80	3.95
Betsson	1.75	3.80	3.95
Nordicbet	1.75	3.80	3.95
Pinnacle	1.79	EV+ 1% 4.01	4.03

Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:29

Odds movement

1+3 %

56 %51 %

1.74 → 1.79

X-2 %

26 %21 %

4.11 → 4.01

2-4 %

26 %21 %

4.19 → 4.03

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Thun 2Draw 1Grasshopper 0

Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Grasshopper have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Thun win 57% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Thun

Grasshopper

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Thun (11–17)

Grasshopper (9–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Thun

Grasshopper

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Thun

Grasshopper

The teams in numbers

Performance	Thun	Grasshopper
Points	7	5
xPoints	5.9	9.2
xG per match	1.4	1.7
xGA per match	2.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.29

Playing style	Thun	Grasshopper
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.46	0.51
xT per match	0.94	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	26	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.29
Entries into the box per match	16	16
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.6
Passes per match	277	260
Passes against per match	320	342
Switches of play per match	26.6	13.7
Long balls per match	38	26

Set pieces	Thun	Grasshopper
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.18
Corners per match	4.3	5.6
Corners against per match	6.1	6.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.63

Other	Thun	Grasshopper
Throw-in control	0.69	0.64

The goalkeepers	Niklas Steffen (Thun)	Justin Hammel (Grasshopper)
Saves	26	11
Save %	61%	48%
xG prevented	31%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Thun

Fixtures, form & tips

Grasshopper

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Thun vs Grasshopper according to our model?

The model gives Thun a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Thun 51%, draw 25%, Grasshopper 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.