01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Thun to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swiss Super LeagueStockhorn Arena, Thun19°14 km/h
Läs på svenska
ThunLow block & direct0–0
Lausanne SportPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Thun (46%)
Thun – Lausanne Sport · Swiss Super League
1 · Thun 46%X 27%27% Lausanne Sport · 2
46%
27%
27%
Analysis: Thun – Lausanne Sport
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Thun holds a slight edge in their recent head-to-head encounters with Lausanne Sport, securing two victories in the three matches since 2023. While it's a limited sample, these results might suggest a slight psychological advantage for the hosts. However, this matchup is not just about past meetings; it's about contrasting styles and current form.
Thun, playing at home, tends to rely on a low defensive block and direct play. This could challenge Lausanne Sport's possession-oriented approach, especially as Thun boasts a 60% home win rate. Yet, the expected goals tell a more nuanced story. For this match, Thun's expected goals stand at 1.67, while Lausanne Sport's are 1.35. Although this leans slightly in favor of the home side, their defensive frailties are exposed with a worrying 2.5 xGA per game, compared to Lausanne Sport's more robust 1.2 xGA.
Despite their defensive vulnerabilities, the model still favors Thun with a 46% probability of winning. The most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 and 2-1, reflect the balance but slight edge for the hosts. However, with a model-predicted 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, this could easily swing either way if defenses falter.
The sharper betting angle lies in the value on the under 3.5 goals market. The model gives a 64% likelihood for this outcome, offering a 6% edge at odds of 1.65 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This suggests a slightly less chaotic affair than the goal probabilities imply, making it a strategic pick for those evaluating the match from a value perspective.
ThunForm DWLLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #12xP/match #12Points #6
Key players
- Marc GutbubFxG 0.47 · xT 0.00
- Brighton LabeauLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.10
- Lucien DahlerRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Lausanne SportForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #10xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Beyatt LekoueiryRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
- Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
- Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Thun 46% · Draw 27% · Lausanne Sport 27%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LausanneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,20fair 10,46-22 %
MissMatchresultat - ThunBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,16fair 6,84-25 %
MissMatch prediction: Thun – Lausanne Sport
Predicted score matrix
Lausanne Sport →
Thun →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–16.3%
0–24.5%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.9%
1–111.4%
1–27.4%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.2%
2–26.2%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.1%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,67–1,35
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.22
Over 2,558%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Thun to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score26%
- Jamie John Roche to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Thun | X | 2 · Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.51 | 3.65 |
Odds updated 2 Sept, 10:36
Odds movement
1-5 %
48 %43 %
2.19 → 2.09
X+4 %
30 %25 %
3.37 → 3.51
2+10 %
30 %25 %
3.33 → 3.65
Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesThun 2Draw 0Lausanne Sport 1
Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Thun win 60% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Thun
Lausanne Sport
Thun (9–14)
Lausanne Sport (6–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Thun
Lausanne Sport
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Thun
Lausanne Sport
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 5 |
| xPoints | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.71 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.41 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.6 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 246 | 352 |
| Passes against per match | 346 | 304 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.8 | 36.9 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| Other | Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Niklas Steffen (Thun) | Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 16 |
| Save % | 58% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- FC Zürich – Young Boys1 September 2026 20:30 CEST
- Grasshopper – St. Gallen2 September 2026 20:30 CEST
- Luzern – Vaduz2 September 2026 21:30 CEST
- Lugano – Servette3 September 2026 20:30 CEST
- Basel – Sion3 September 2026 20:30 CEST
- Young Boys – Luzern5 September 2026 18:00 CEST
- Vaduz – Lausanne Sport5 September 2026 18:00 CEST
- Grasshopper – FC Zürich5 September 2026 20:30 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Thun vs Lausanne Sport according to our model?
The model gives Thun a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Thun 46%, draw 27%, Lausanne Sport 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.