Thun vs Servette: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Swiss Super League22 August 2026Stockhorn Arena, Thun18°3,0 mm5 km/h

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ThunCounter-attacks & crosses

ServettePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Thun (40%)

1 · Thun 40%X 26%34% Servette · 2

40%

26%

34%

Analysis: Thun – Servette

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Thun's remarkable 100% record in the three head-to-head clashes against Servette since 2023 adds a fascinating wrinkle to this matchup. Yet, don't let that small sample size fool you into overlooking Servette's superior xPoints and xGA numbers, which suggest they're the more robust team over the duration of the season. Thun, despite their home dominance historically, are up against it when weighed against Servette's calculated possession style.

Thun claims the upper hand with a 60% win rate at home, but Servette's xG and xGA figures portray a side that, on paper, should have the defensive fortitude to frustrate Thun's counter-attacking instincts. Thun thrives on quick transitions, as evidenced by their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball standing at 0.47 compared to Servette's 0.35. Servette, meanwhile, excels in controlling the game and limiting chances, reflected in their xGA of 1.3 per match versus Thun's concerning 3.3.

Number-wise, a 1-1 draw appears the most likely outcome, carrying an 11% probability. Yet, the model's subtle lean towards Thun at 40% shouldn't be ignored, especially when there's evident value on offer. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all list Thun at odds of 2.72, giving punters a 9% edge according to the model's valuation.

Despite the forecasted 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, the expected goals from both sides hover around the 1.5 mark, hinting at a tight contest. Therefore, a 2-1 win for Thun, matching their playing style strengths against Servette's vulnerabilities, nudges the prediction scale slightly in their favor.

For those eyeing a value bet, backing Thun to capitalize on their tactical nous and recent head-to-head success at odds of 2.72 offers a sharp angle. While not a sure thing, it's an enticing prospect where the model sees a calculated risk worth considering.

Thun

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #8

Key players

Marc GutbubFxG 0.46 · xT 0.00
Lucien DahlerRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Fabio Saiz PennarossaFxG 0.02 · xT 0.06

Servette

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #4xP/match #4Points #7

Key players

Tiemoko OuattaraFxG 0.26 · xT 0.13
Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Samuel MrazFxG 0.66 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Thun – Servette

Predicted score matrix

Servette →

Thun →

0–04.5%

0–16.1%

0–25.0%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.4%

1–06.5%

1–110.8%

1–28.1%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.6%

2–18.6%

2–26.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.0%

3–14.7%

3–23.6%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.8%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,63–1,54

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.40

Over 2,561%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Thun or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Thun or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Marc Gutbub to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Florian Ayé to score20%
Pedro Henrique Naressi Machado to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Thun40% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
1 · Thun40% probability@2.72BetssonEV+9%reference odds
1 · Thun40% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Thun	X	2 · Servette
Betsafe	EV+ 9% 2.72	3.50	2.30
Betsson	EV+ 9% 2.72	3.50	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 9% 2.72	3.50	2.30

Odds updated 17 Aug, 20:36

Odds movement

10 %

36 %31 %

2.72 → 2.72

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.50

20 %

42 %37 %

2.30 → 2.30

Over 2,5+1 %

65 %60 %

1.48 → 1.50

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Thun 3Draw 0Servette 0

Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Thun win 60% of their home matches all-time (20 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Thun

Servette

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Thun (5–11)

Servette (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Thun

Servette

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Thun

Servette

The teams in numbers

Performance	Thun	Servette
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.5	4.5
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	3.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.19

Playing style	Thun	Servette
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.32	0.56
xT per match	0.96	1.4
xTA per match	2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	36
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.26
Entries into the box per match	13	23
Entries into the box against	19	13
Pass completion %	0.7	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.7
Passes per match	253	365
Passes against per match	358	279
Switches of play per match	16.4	19.2
Long balls per match	24	30

Set pieces	Thun	Servette
xG from free kicks	0.23	0.01
Corners per match	5	8
Corners against per match	8.5	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.57

Other	Thun	Servette
Throw-in control	0.64	0.73

The goalkeepers	Niklas Steffen (Thun)	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)
Saves	15	5
Save %	58%	63%
xG prevented	39%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Thun vs Servette according to our model?

The model gives Thun a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Thun 40%, draw 26%, Servette 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.