Vaduz vs Grasshopper: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Swiss Super League30 August 2026 16:30 CESTRheinpark Stadion, Vaduz21°2,0 mm13 km/h

Läs på svenska

VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

5–2

GrasshopperPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Vaduz (61%)

1 · Vaduz 61%X 21%18% Grasshopper · 2

61%

21%

18%

Analysis: Vaduz – Grasshopper

Anna Karlsson · 29 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Vaduz's 61% win probability stands out starkly against their recent form, having lost four consecutive matches. Yet, the model's confidence in the hosts isn't without reason. Despite their struggles, Vaduz's expected goals (xG) at 2.06 dwarfs Grasshopper's 1.07, indicating a clear offensive edge. This discrepancy aligns with their playing style, preferring counter-attacks and crosses, while Grasshopper leans towards possession control. The real question is whether Vaduz can convert this potential into a much-needed victory or if their recent slump will persist.

Grasshopper's solitary point from their matches might suggest a minor edge, but a deeper dive reveals a different story. Vaduz has an xPoints advantage of 5.2 to Grasshopper’s 3.7, reflecting better underlying performances despite the poor results. The visitors' marginally better defense, allowing 1.4 xGA per match compared to Vaduz's 2.1, offers some hope. Still, the hosts' offensive potential creates a compelling case for a home win, especially given Grasshopper's limited scoring threat.

Considering the odds, Vaduz offers significant value at 2.05 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, rated by the model at a 61% likelihood, providing a 24% edge. The numbers point towards a 2-1 victory for the home side and a lean towards over 2.5 goals, despite the hosts' losing streak.

Vaduz

Form LLLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #11xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Luca MackCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Marcel MonsbergerLWxG 0.59 · xT -0.05
Lutfi DalipiCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.17

Grasshopper

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #6xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Luke PlangeFxG 0.80 · xT 0.08
Samuel Sebastian KrasniqiLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.46
Tim MeyerCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Final score

5 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vaduz 61% · Draw 21% · Grasshopper 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VaduzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,92fair 4,97-1 %

Hit

Match prediction: Vaduz – Grasshopper

Predicted score matrix

Grasshopper →

Vaduz →

0–04.7%

0–14.4%

0–22.5%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.8%

1–19.9%

1–25.1%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.3%

2–19.9%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.4%

3–16.8%

3–23.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–05.3%

4+–15.6%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,06–1,07

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@2.35

Over 2,560%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vaduz to win61%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vaduz to win61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score27%
Tim Meyer to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Vaduz61% probability@2.16PinnacleEV+31%reference odds
1 · Vaduz61% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
1 · Vaduz61% probability@2.05BetssonEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vaduz	X	2 · Grasshopper
Betsafe	EV+ 24% 2.05	3.50	3.10
Betsson	EV+ 24% 2.05	3.50	3.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 24% 2.05	3.50	3.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 31% 2.16	3.82	3.19

Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:31

Odds movement

1+5 %

48 %43 %

2.05 → 2.16

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.82 → 3.82

2+1 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.19

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Vaduz have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vaduz

Grasshopper

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vaduz (7–12)

Grasshopper (3–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Grasshopper

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Grasshopper

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vaduz	Grasshopper
Points	0	1
xPoints	5.2	3.7
xG per match	1.9	1
xGA per match	2.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.62	0.39

Playing style	Vaduz	Grasshopper
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.28
Field tilt	0.43	0.49
xT per match	0.64	1
xTA per match	1.5	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	32	25
Pressing intensity	0.29	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	23	16
Pass completion %	0.75	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.63
Passes per match	405	304
Passes against per match	347	390
Switches of play per match	22.8	17
Long balls per match	36	24

Set pieces	Vaduz	Grasshopper
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.1
Corners per match	3.9	3.3
Corners against per match	8.4	5.2
xG per corner	0	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.56

Other	Vaduz	Grasshopper
Throw-in control	0.7	0.67

The goalkeepers	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)	Justin Hammel (Grasshopper)
Saves	14	10
Save %	61%	59%
xG prevented	49%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vaduz

Fixtures, form & tips

Grasshopper

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vaduz vs Grasshopper according to our model?

The model gives Vaduz a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vaduz 61%, draw 21%, Grasshopper 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.