Swiss Super LeagueStadion Wankdorf, Bern19°17 km/h

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    Young BoysYoung BoysLow block & direct
    3–3
    BaselBaselPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Young Boys (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Basel @ 5.18 (+20 %)

    Young Boys – Basel · Swiss Super League

    1 · Young Boys 51%X 26%23% Basel · 2

    Analysis: Young Boys – Basel

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Young Boys are riding a 7-match unbeaten streak, and their stronghold at home is undeniable, winning 60% of their home matches all-time. In contrast, Basel has struggled to make their possession game count against such direct opponents. With a narrow edge in points (10 to 9) and a more pronounced superiority in expected metrics (xPoints and xG), the hosts seem better positioned to capitalize on their chances.

    Historically, this match-up leans towards high drama with an average of 3.9 goals per encounter. However, the numbers suggest a more controlled outcome this time. While Young Boys have the upper hand in head-to-heads since 2023 with 4 wins, Basel's tighter defense could curtail an outright goal spree. The most likely scorelines favor a restrained 1-1 or a 2-1 win for the hosts, hinting at a tactical tussle rather than a free-for-all.

    The market sees a goal-heavy game, but there's hidden value in a cautious under 2.5 goals bet, priced intriguingly at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite an over 2.5 market lean, the model points to only a 35% likelihood for under 2.5, offering a tempting edge for those willing to back a tighter affair than the odds suggest.

    Young BoysYoung Boys
    Form DWWDW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #4xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Joel MonteiroFxG 0.29 · xT 0.11
    • Samuel Emmanuel Essende MbonguFxG 1.04 · xT 0.09
    • Alvyn SanchesCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.22
    BaselBasel
    Form LWLWW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #1xT #7xP/match #5Points #3
    Key players
    • Žan CelarFxG 0.53 · xT -0.03
    • Nicolas VouillozLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
    • Keigo TsunemotoRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    3 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Young Boys 51% · Draw 26% · Basel 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BaselBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,28fair 10,41-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Young BoysBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,06fair 4,90-38 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Young Boys – Basel

    Predicted score matrix

    Basel →
    Young Boys →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–14.5%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–19.7%
    1–26.5%
    1–33.0%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–19.4%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–04.6%
    3–16.3%
    3–24.3%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–14.9%
    4+–23.4%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.2-07%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,99–1,37
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,535%
    @3.20EV+11%
    Over 2,565%
    @1.30

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Young Boys to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.23

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Young Boys to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score30%
    • Abemly Silu Metinho to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Basel23% probability@5.18PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
    • X · Draw26% probability@4.56PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • Under 3.557% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Young BoysX2 · Basel
    Betsafe1.52
    EV+ 13%
    4.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.60
    Betsson1.52
    EV+ 13%
    4.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.60
    Nordicbet1.52
    EV+ 13%
    4.40
    EV+ 7%
    4.60
    Pinnacle1.59
    EV+ 17%
    4.56
    EV+ 20%
    5.18

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    62 %57 %

    1.62 → 1.59

    X+7 %
    24 %19 %

    4.28 → 4.56

    2+9 %
    22 %17 %

    4.77 → 5.18

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Young Boys 4Draw 2Basel 2
    Goals: 18–13 (⌀ 3,9)

    Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Young Boys dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.9 goals per meeting on average.
    • Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    • Young Boys win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Young Boys
    Basel
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Young Boys (16–6)
    Basel (7–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Young Boys
    Edimilson Fernandes: 133 passningar, xT 0.1FernandesArmin Gigović: 125 passningar, xT 0.39GigovićCédric Adrian Zesiger: 114 passningar, xT 0.47ZesigerAlvyn Sanches: 106 passningar, xT 0.74SanchesLewin Blum: 94 passningar, xT 0.83BlumGregory Wuthrich: 83 passningar, xT 0.12WuthrichJaouen Hadjam: 72 passningar, xT 0.05HadjamMarvin Keller: 67 passningar, xT 0.05KellerStefan Bukinac: 61 passningar, xT 0.97BukinacSandro Lauper: 56 passningar, xT 0.11LauperDominik Pech: 53 passningar, xT -0.06Pech
    Basel
    Akpe Victory Maduabuchukwu: 227 passningar, xT 0.29MaduabuchukwuFlavius David Daniliuc: 201 passningar, xT 0.32DaniliucKeigo Tsunemoto: 176 passningar, xT 0.6TsunemotoAbemly Silu Metinho: 88 passningar, xT -0.06MetinhoMoussa Cissé: 83 passningar, xT 0.11CisséLudwig Simon Małachowski Thorell: 79 passningar, xT 0.43ThorellMirko Salvi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02SalviXherdan Shaqiri: 72 passningar, xT 0.28ShaqiriBećir Omeragić: 60 passningar, xT 0.01OmeragićAsane Sow: 54 passningar, xT 0.29SowKazeem Aderemi Olaigbe: 49 passningar, xT 0.34Olaigbe
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Young Boys
    Edimilson Fernandes: 133 passningar, xT 0.1FernandesArmin Gigović: 125 passningar, xT 0.39GigovićCédric Adrian Zesiger: 114 passningar, xT 0.47ZesigerAlvyn Sanches: 106 passningar, xT 0.74SanchesLewin Blum: 94 passningar, xT 0.83BlumGregory Wuthrich: 83 passningar, xT 0.12WuthrichJaouen Hadjam: 72 passningar, xT 0.05HadjamMarvin Keller: 67 passningar, xT 0.05KellerStefan Bukinac: 61 passningar, xT 0.97BukinacSandro Lauper: 56 passningar, xT 0.11LauperDominik Pech: 53 passningar, xT -0.06Pech
    Basel
    Akpe Victory Maduabuchukwu: 227 passningar, xT 0.29MaduabuchukwuFlavius David Daniliuc: 201 passningar, xT 0.32DaniliucKeigo Tsunemoto: 176 passningar, xT 0.6TsunemotoAbemly Silu Metinho: 88 passningar, xT -0.06MetinhoMoussa Cissé: 83 passningar, xT 0.11CisséLudwig Simon Małachowski Thorell: 79 passningar, xT 0.43ThorellMirko Salvi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02SalviXherdan Shaqiri: 72 passningar, xT 0.28ShaqiriBećir Omeragić: 60 passningar, xT 0.01OmeragićAsane Sow: 54 passningar, xT 0.29SowKazeem Aderemi Olaigbe: 49 passningar, xT 0.34Olaigbe

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceYoung BoysBasel
    Points109
    xPoints85.7
    xG per match2.41.3
    xGA per match1.20.97
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.690.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.14
    Playing styleYoung BoysBasel
    Build-up efficiency0.360.32
    Field tilt0.540.44
    xT per match1.40.96
    xTA per match0.870.74
    Won balls, offensive half2523
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.26
    Entries into the box per match1613
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.750.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.7
    Passes per match309334
    Passes against per match376326
    Switches of play per match27.633
    Long balls per match3730
    Set piecesYoung BoysBasel
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match4.74.6
    Corners against per match3.75.8
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.580.68
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.46
    OtherYoung BoysBasel
    Throw-in control0.690.63
    The goalkeepersMarvin Keller (Young Boys)Mirko Salvi (Basel)
    Saves98
    Save %69%73%
    xG prevented38%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Young Boys
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Basel
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Young Boys vs Basel according to our model?

    The model gives Young Boys a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Young Boys 51%, draw 26%, Basel 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.