Young Boys vs Servette: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Swiss Super League19 September 2026Stadion Wankdorf, Bern14°15 km/h

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Young BoysPossession control

ServettePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Young Boys (52%)

1 · Young Boys 52%X 25%23% Servette · 2

52%

25%

23%

Analysis: Young Boys – Servette

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The clash between Young Boys and Servette is set to test the resolve of both possession-oriented sides. Young Boys enter the match as clear favorites. They boast an unbeaten streak of 10 league matches and have consistently found the net in each of those outings. The model gives them a solid 52% chance of triumphing, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 2-1. The numbers suggest a tightly contested affair, but one where the hosts have the edge.

Despite the historical dominance of Young Boys in this fixture, with 3 wins in the last 7 meetings, the sample size is small. Thus, current form and expected goals carry more weight. Young Boys' offensive potency is evident in their xG of 2.3 per match compared to Servette's 1.5. However, Servette's ability to match Young Boys defensively, as both teams post an xGA of 1.4, could keep the visitors in the game. This defensive solidity will be crucial if Servette are to close the gap.

The open nature of the match is suggested by the model’s expectation of goals, with a high-scoring encounter likely. The combined expected goals sit at 3.41, reinforcing the 66% probability of over 2.5 goals. Both teams might find the back of the net, given the same probability for both teams to score. However, with Young Boys' superior firepower and form, they are better positioned to edge out Servette.

Betting value might lie in backing Young Boys to win, with a 52% probability at odds that translate to anything over 1.92 (bet365 currently offering 2.05). This provides a positive expected value, amplifying the worth of backing the home side in what promises to be a dynamic encounter.

Young Boys

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #3xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Samuel Emmanuel Essende MbonguFxG 0.82 · xT 0.06
Alvyn SanchesCAMxG 0.34 · xT 0.34
Kaly SeneFxG 0.79 · xT 0.09

Servette

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #6xP/match #6Points #12

Key players

Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Samuel MrazFxG 0.87 · xT -0.02
Tiemoko OuattaraLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Young Boys – Servette

Predicted score matrix

Servette →

Young Boys →

0–03.6%

0–14.5%

0–23.5%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.2%

1–19.7%

1–26.9%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.3%

2–19.2%

2–26.7%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–04.1%

3–16.0%

3–24.3%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.1%

4+–03.1%

4+–14.6%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.2-06%

Expected goals

1,95–1,46

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

–

Over 2,566%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Young Boys to win52%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Young Boys to win52%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score27%
David Marc Michel Douline to be booked26%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Young Boys 3Draw 3Servette 1

Goals: 12–10 (⌀ 3,1)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Young Boys dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
Young Boys have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Young Boys win 57% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Young Boys

Servette

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Young Boys (26–14)

Servette (4–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Young Boys

Servette

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Young Boys

Servette

The teams in numbers

Performance	Young Boys	Servette
Points	15	4
xPoints	12.7	8.6
xG per match	2.3	1.5
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.56	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.17

Playing style	Young Boys	Servette
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.56	0.53
xT per match	1.6	1.2
xTA per match	1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	17	19
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.7
Passes per match	342	378
Passes against per match	357	307
Switches of play per match	30.3	23.2
Long balls per match	38	33

Set pieces	Young Boys	Servette
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.1
Corners per match	5.5	6.9
Corners against per match	3.3	4.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.6

Other	Young Boys	Servette
Throw-in control	0.7	0.76

The goalkeepers	Marvin Keller (Young Boys)	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)
Saves	19	13
Save %	61%	68%
xG prevented	40%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Young Boys

Fixtures, form & tips

Servette

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Young Boys vs Servette according to our model?

The model gives Young Boys a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Young Boys 52%, draw 25%, Servette 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.