Young Boys vs Vaduz: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swiss Super League23 August 2026 14:00 CESTStadion Wankdorf, Bern18°2,4 mm6 km/h

Young BoysPossession control

VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Young Boys (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vaduz @ 8.00 (+82 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Young Boys 53%X 24%23% Vaduz · 2

53%

24%

23%

Analysis: Young Boys – Vaduz

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Young Boys are riding high, unbeaten in their last six league matches, which contrasts sharply with Vaduz's current form—a three-game losing streak weighing heavily on their shoulders. The model places a clear 53% probability on Young Boys to secure victory, a sensible stance given their recent performances and superior metrics. With an expected goals tally of 2.07 compared to Vaduz's 1.33, Young Boys not only appear more likely to score but should also control the game through their possession-based style, stifling Vaduz's counter-attacking ambitions.

Young Boys have an impressive record at home, winning 59% of their league matches. This historical home advantage enhances their appeal, particularly as Vaduz struggles to find form. The likely scorelines of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (7%) in favor of Young Boys underline the expectation of a home win, albeit with a potential for both teams to score, given the 65% probability. Despite Vaduz's recent struggles, their counter-attacking threat could see them nick a goal, keeping the match competitive.

With an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 66%, this clash seems destined for multiple goals, but the edge lies with Young Boys to outscore their opponents. The odds suggest a betting angle worth exploring: Vaduz to win at odds of 8.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, each carrying a 91% edge according to the model. This represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, considering the model rates Vaduz's win probability at 23%.

In this fixture, Young Boys should dominate proceedings, but bettors with an appetite for risk might find the odds on a Vaduz upset too tempting to ignore. The sharpest angle hinges on whether you trust the form and tangible superiority of Young Boys or fancy a flutter on the enticing odds offered on a Vaduz shock victory.

Young Boys

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #5xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Samuel Emmanuel Essende MbonguFxG 1.15 · xT 0.11
Joel MonteiroFxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
Alvyn SanchesCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.24

Vaduz

Form LLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #12xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Marcel MonsbergerLWxG 0.59 · xT 0.01
Juan Ignacio CabreraFxG 0.65 · xT 0.09
Lutfi DalipiCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Young Boys – Vaduz

Predicted score matrix

Vaduz →

Young Boys →

0–03.6%

0–14.2%

0–22.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.6%

1–06.6%

1–19.5%

1–26.1%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.2%

2–19.5%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.9%

3–16.6%

3–24.4%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–04.1%

4+–15.5%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,07–1,33

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@3.35EV+14%

Over 2,566%

@1.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Young Boys to win53%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Young Boys to win53%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Alvyn Antonio Sanches to score30%
Liridon Berisha to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vaduz23% probability@8.00BetsafeEV+82%reference odds
2 · Vaduz23% probability@8.00BetssonEV+82%reference odds
2 · Vaduz23% probability@8.00NordicbetEV+82%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Young Boys	X	2 · Vaduz
Betsafe	1.26	EV+ 36% 5.70	EV+ 82% 8.00
Betsson	1.26	EV+ 36% 5.70	EV+ 82% 8.00
Nordicbet	1.26	EV+ 36% 5.70	EV+ 82% 8.00

Odds updated 19 Aug, 04:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Young Boys win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 1.33 to 1.26 (−5%).

1-5 %

73 %68 %

1.33 → 1.26

X+11 %

20 %15 %

5.15 → 5.70

2+18 %

15 %10 %

6.80 → 8.00

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Vaduz have lost 3 in a row.
Young Boys win 59% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Young Boys

Vaduz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Young Boys (12–4)

Vaduz (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Young Boys

Vaduz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Young Boys

Vaduz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Young Boys	Vaduz
Points	7	0
xPoints	6.3	2.4
xG per match	2.5	1.6
xGA per match	1	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.71	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.53

Playing style	Young Boys	Vaduz
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.29
Field tilt	0.54	0.42
xT per match	1.2	0.05
xTA per match	0.88	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	22	43
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	9	26
Pass completion %	0.76	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	313	415
Passes against per match	340	359
Switches of play per match	25.7	16.9
Long balls per match	32	33

Set pieces	Young Boys	Vaduz
xG from free kicks	0	0.14
Corners per match	4.2	3.8
Corners against per match	3.6	11.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.5

Other	Young Boys	Vaduz
Throw-in control	0.67	0.71

The goalkeepers	Sandro Lauper (Young Boys)	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)
Saves	5	9
Save %	100%	64%
xG prevented	100%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Young Boys vs Vaduz according to our model?

The model gives Young Boys a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Young Boys 53%, draw 24%, Vaduz 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.