Turkish 1. Lig23°9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara KeçiörengücüPossession control
    3–0
    SarıyerSarıyerBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (45%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 12.00 (+4 %)

    Ankara Keçiörengücü – Sarıyer · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 45%X 30%25% Sarıyer · 2

    Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Sarıyer

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Two meetings between Ankara Keçiörengücü and Sarıyer since 2024 offer limited insight, with each side picking up a victory. This small sample doesn't overshadow current form trends or expected goals metrics, which favor the hosts. Keçiörengücü's approach centers on possession control, contrasting with Sarıyer's balanced and physical style. This tactical matchup could dictate the rhythm of the game, with the home side likely to dominate the ball while Sarıyer seeks to exploit transitions.

    Ankara Keçiörengücü's statistical edge in expected goals (1.9 vs. 1.4) suggests they should create more scoring opportunities. However, the visitors have demonstrated an attack's resilience, finding the net in their last nine league matches. Despite this offensive consistency, Sarıyer's slightly superior defensive metric (0.86 xGA versus Keçiörengücü's 1.1 xGA) indicates they might be tough to break down.

    With a model probability favoring Keçiörengücü at 45% and the most likely scorelines tipping towards a narrow victory or a draw, this encounter could be a tight affair. The predicted scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 underline a lean towards a low-scoring outcome, with under 2.5 goals sitting at 55%. The potential for both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 49%, reflecting the clash between Keçiörengücü's offensive potential and Sarıyer's scoring streak.

    From a betting perspective, there's notable value in the under 0.5 goals market at odds of 12.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 9%, presenting a 4% edge over the odds offered. For those seeking a long shot, this angle could prove intriguing despite its inherent risk, as a solitary goal would settle the bet.

    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Form LWDDW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #8xT #6xP/match #1Points #7
    Key players
    • Mame DioufFxG 0.53 · xT 0.01
    • Francis EzehFxG 0.28 · xT 0.23
    • Ibrahim AkdagCDMxG 0.40 · xT 0.15
    SarıyerSarıyer
    Form WDLWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
    • Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
    • Emeka EzeFxG 0.48 · xT -0.03
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Ankara Keçiörengücü 45% · Draw 30% · Sarıyer 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - KeciörengücüBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,03fair 9,13-23 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SariyerBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,18fair 20,79-51 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Sarıyer

    Predicted score matrix

    Sarıyer →
    Ankara Keçiörengücü →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–17.8%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.1%
    1–112.7%
    1–26.1%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–14.6%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,50–0,99
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.85EV+1%
    Over 2,545%
    @1.83

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win45%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win45%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score24%
    • Erkam Develi to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 0.59% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Ankara KeçiörengücüX2 · Sarıyer
    Betsafe2.143.293.10
    Betsson2.143.293.10
    Nordicbet2.143.293.10

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 20:38

    Odds movement

    10 %
    45 %40 %

    2.14 → 2.14

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.29 → 3.29

    20 %
    32 %27 %

    3.10 → 3.10

    Over 2,50 %
    53 %48 %

    1.83 → 1.83

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ankara Keçiörengücü 1Draw 0Sarıyer 1
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Sariyer have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Sarıyer
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ankara Keçiörengücü (12–8)
    Sarıyer (8–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 198 passningar, xT 0.42NascimentoIbrahim Akdag: 156 passningar, xT 0.57AkdagIshak Karaogul: 127 passningar, xT -0.03KaraogulOguzcan Caliskan: 119 passningar, xT 0.19CaliskanBerkan Keskin: 111 passningar, xT 0.19KeskinAbdullah Celik: 110 passningar, xT 0.44CelikEmre Satilmis: 104 passningar, xT 0.09SatilmisSuleyman Lus: 101 passningar, xT 0.53LusFrancis Ezeh: 87 passningar, xT 1EzehYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirJefferson Nogueira Junior: 74 passningar, xT 0.16Junior
    Sarıyer
    Caner Osmanpasa: 259 passningar, xT 0.78OsmanpasaMarcos Silva: 213 passningar, xT 0.27SilvaEsref Korkmazoglu: 200 passningar, xT 1.09KorkmazogluIbrahim Šehić: 198 passningar, xT 0.21ŠehićCebrail Karayel: 196 passningar, xT 0.48KarayelKaan Arslan: 179 passningar, xT 0.24ArslanEfecan Karaca: 158 passningar, xT 0.63KaracaJoseph Larweh Attamah: 113 passningar, xT 0.25AttamahAndre Poko: 98 passningar, xT 0.12PokoBaris Alici: 83 passningar, xT 0.43AliciHasan Emre Emre Yesilyurt: 74 passningar, xT 0.04Yesilyurt
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 198 passningar, xT 0.42NascimentoIbrahim Akdag: 156 passningar, xT 0.57AkdagIshak Karaogul: 127 passningar, xT -0.03KaraogulOguzcan Caliskan: 119 passningar, xT 0.19CaliskanBerkan Keskin: 111 passningar, xT 0.19KeskinAbdullah Celik: 110 passningar, xT 0.44CelikEmre Satilmis: 104 passningar, xT 0.09SatilmisSuleyman Lus: 101 passningar, xT 0.53LusFrancis Ezeh: 87 passningar, xT 1EzehYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirJefferson Nogueira Junior: 74 passningar, xT 0.16Junior
    Sarıyer
    Caner Osmanpasa: 259 passningar, xT 0.78OsmanpasaMarcos Silva: 213 passningar, xT 0.27SilvaEsref Korkmazoglu: 200 passningar, xT 1.09KorkmazogluIbrahim Šehić: 198 passningar, xT 0.21ŠehićCebrail Karayel: 196 passningar, xT 0.48KarayelKaan Arslan: 179 passningar, xT 0.24ArslanEfecan Karaca: 158 passningar, xT 0.63KaracaJoseph Larweh Attamah: 113 passningar, xT 0.25AttamahAndre Poko: 98 passningar, xT 0.12PokoBaris Alici: 83 passningar, xT 0.43AliciHasan Emre Emre Yesilyurt: 74 passningar, xT 0.04Yesilyurt

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAnkara KeçiörengücüSarıyer
    Points810
    xPoints9.48.9
    xG per match1.91.4
    xGA per match1.10.86
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.26
    Playing styleAnkara KeçiörengücüSarıyer
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.460.47
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match0.860.96
    Won balls, offensive half2522
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.14
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.760.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.77
    Passes per match313394
    Passes against per match386388
    Switches of play per match27.234.7
    Long balls per match4043
    Set piecesAnkara KeçiörengücüSarıyer
    xG from free kicks0.080.1
    Corners per match3.83.2
    Corners against per match4.63.4
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.47
    OtherAnkara KeçiörengücüSarıyer
    Throw-in control0.670.69
    The goalkeepersEmre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)Kaan Arslan (Sarıyer)
    Saves127
    Save %63%100%
    xG prevented36%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sarıyer
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Sarıyer according to our model?

    The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 45%, draw 30%, Sarıyer 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    BolusporBoluspor
    1–2
    Manisa FKManisa FK
    1 51%X 26%2 23%
    The model missed the outcome
    AntalyasporAntalyaspor
    4–3
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara Keçiörengücü
    1 32%X 28%2 40%
    The model missed the outcome
    BandırmasporBandırmaspor
    3–0
    IstanbulsporIstanbulspor
    1 40%X 28%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.