Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig6 September 202632°14 km/h

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AntalyasporPossession control

1–2

SivassporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Antalyaspor (38%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 12.00 (+17 %)

1 · Antalyaspor 38%X 31%31% Sivasspor · 2

38%

31%

Analysis: Antalyaspor – Sivasspor

Oscar Nilsson · 5 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A clash of possession-based styles defines the upcoming meeting between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor. According to the models, this is a tightly contested matchup, with the hosts holding a slight edge at 38% probability for a win, compared to 31% for both a draw and a Sivasspor victory. The expected goals suggest a narrow margin as well, with Antalyaspor at 1.21 and Sivasspor at 1.15. If possession is king, this match may be a chess game rather than a shootout.

Despite sitting higher in the points table with 6 to Sivasspor's 3, Antalyaspor's underlying numbers tell a different story. Their xPoints lag behind at 5.0 compared to Sivasspor’s 6.7, indicating that the visitors might be underperforming their potential thus far. Sivasspor’s xG per match of 1.4 is markedly superior to Antalyaspor’s 0.96, suggesting they could be the more dangerous side offensively, despite their current standing.

In terms of defense, Antalyaspor has the upper hand with an xGA of 1.6 compared to Sivasspor’s 1.8. This defensive edge might be crucial, especially given the low probability of a high-scoring affair. The likelihood of under 2.5 goals stands at 58%, and the chance of both teams finding the net is less than 50%. These numbers hint at a cautious, tight contest where one goal might just decide the outcome.

For the sharp bettors, the real angle lies in the extreme market odds for no goals at all. Betting on under 0.5 goals is available at odds of 12.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this happening at 10%, presenting a 17% value edge. While not a likely scenario, the disparity between the odds and model valuation makes it an intriguing low-risk, high-reward play.

Antalyaspor

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #17xP/match #19Points #11

Key players

Sander Van De StreekFxG 0.16 · xT 0.04
Ramzi SafuriCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Bunyamin BalciRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06

Sivasspor

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #6xGA #18xT #16xP/match #12Points #18

Key players

Rey ManajFxG 0.86 · xT -0.07
Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Valon EthemiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.06

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Antalyaspor 38% · Draw 31% · Sivasspor 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SivassporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,70fair 14,99-35 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AntalyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,94fair 13,54-49 %

Miss

Match prediction: Antalyaspor – Sivasspor

Predicted score matrix

Sivasspor →

Antalyaspor →

0–09.8%

0–110.4%

0–26.2%

0–32.4%

0–4+0.9%

1–011.0%

1–113.5%

1–27.6%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.9%

2–18.0%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.8%

3–13.2%

3–21.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-010%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,21–1,15

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.90EV+10%

Over 2,542%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Antalyaspor or draw (1X)66%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Antalyaspor or draw (1X)66%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Nikola Storm to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Nikola Storm to score24%
Charilaos Charisis to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.510% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@12.00BetssonEV+17%reference odds
Under 0.510% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Antalyaspor	X	2 · Sivasspor
Betsafe	2.19	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.92
Betsson	2.19	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.92
Nordicbet	2.19	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.92

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Sivasspor win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 3.38 to 2.92 (−14%).

1+10 %

48 %38 %

1.99 → 2.19

X+1 %

32 %22 %

3.38 → 3.40

2-14 %

34 %24 %

3.38 → 2.92

Over 2,5-6 %

55 %45 %

1.90 → 1.78

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Antalyaspor

Sivasspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Antalyaspor (8–10)

Sivasspor (5–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Sivasspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Sivasspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Antalyaspor	Sivasspor
Points	6	3
xPoints	5	6.7
xG per match	0.96	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.53	0.38

Playing style	Antalyaspor	Sivasspor
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.52	0.48
xT per match	0.79	0.81
xTA per match	0.98	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	19	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.66
Passes per match	383	292
Passes against per match	317	318
Switches of play per match	33.6	33
Long balls per match	41	40

Set pieces	Antalyaspor	Sivasspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.15
Corners per match	4.2	4.8
Corners against per match	4	4.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.55

Other	Antalyaspor	Sivasspor
Throw-in control	0.67	0.67

The goalkeepers	Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)	Mehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş (Sivasspor)
Saves	10	12
Save %	56%	60%
xG prevented	29%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Antalyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor according to our model?

The model gives Antalyaspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Antalyaspor 38%, draw 31%, Sivasspor 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.