Bandırmaspor vs Antalyaspor: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig1 September 202625°20 km/h

Läs på svenska

BandırmasporPossession control

0–1

AntalyasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bandırmaspor (53%)

1 · Bandırmaspor 53%X 27%20% Antalyaspor · 2

53%

27%

20%

Analysis: Bandırmaspor – Antalyaspor

Erik Lindberg · 31 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A 16-match unbeaten streak speaks volumes for Bandırmaspor's form, and tomorrow's clash against Antalyaspor tilts heavily in their favor. The model gives the hosts a 53% chance to win, and with Antalyaspor on a three-game losing skid, it's hard to argue. Most likely scorelines like 1-0 and 2-0 underscore a defensive edge for Bandırmaspor, supported by their solid home win rate of 62% across 42 games.

Looking deeper, Bandırmaspor's expected goals (xG) of 1.54 compared to Antalyaspor's 0.82 suggest a controlled dominance. Despite both teams leaning towards possession football, the hosts have shown a greater ability to turn possession into points. Their xG per match of 1.1 may not scream goal flood, but it comfortably outweighs the visitors' 0.98, while defensively, Bandırmaspor's xGA of 1.0 is significantly better than Antalyaspor's shaky 1.9.

With only a small head-to-head sample available, recent form and expected goals are the more reliable indicators here. The expectation of 1-0 or 2-0 seems plausible, and with just a 42% chance for over 2.5 goals, the under seems the safer play. The hosts' defensive solidity at home is likely to keep the visitors' attack at bay.

The real betting angle lies in the odds. Bandırmaspor's home win is priced at 2.62 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a substantial 38% edge according to the model. This is where the value shines through, suggesting a well-judged, stable bet. For those who prioritize precision over thrill, this opportunity is hard to overlook.

Bandırmaspor

Form WWDDD

League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #19xP/match #13Points #8

Key players

Gianni BrunoFxG 0.76 · xT -0.02
Amidou BadjiFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13

Antalyaspor

Form WLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #15xP/match #19Points #17

Key players

Sander Van De StreekFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Ramzi SafuriCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Pedro Filipe Barbosa MoreiraCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bandırmaspor 53% · Draw 27% · Antalyaspor 20%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BandirmasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,35fair 9,47-1 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AntalyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,43fair 32,63-68 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bandırmaspor – Antalyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Antalyaspor →

Bandırmaspor →

0–09.8%

0–17.4%

0–23.2%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.2%

1–112.3%

1–24.9%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.2%

2–19.2%

2–23.8%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.8%

3–14.7%

3–21.9%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.1%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,54–0,82

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.68

Over 2,542%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bandırmaspor to win53%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bandırmaspor to win53%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Douglas Willian da Silva Souza to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Douglas Willian da Silva Souza to score28%
Soner Dikmen to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.48BetssonEV+31%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.48NordicbetEV+31%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bandırmaspor	X	2 · Antalyaspor
Betsafe	EV+ 31% 2.48	3.10	2.72
Betsson	EV+ 31% 2.48	3.10	2.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 31% 2.48	3.10	2.72

Odds updated 1 Sept, 08:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Bandırmaspor win since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 2.71 to 2.48 (−8%).

1-8 %

38 %33 %

2.71 → 2.48

X-6 %

31 %26 %

3.29 → 3.10

2+14 %

39 %34 %

2.38 → 2.72

Over 2,5+5 %

49 %44 %

1.95 → 2.04

Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Bandirmaspor are unbeaten in their last 16 league matches.
Antalyaspor have lost 3 in a row.
Bandirmaspor win 62% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bandırmaspor

Antalyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bandırmaspor (5–2)

Antalyaspor (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Antalyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Antalyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bandırmaspor	Antalyaspor
Points	6	3
xPoints	5.3	2.8
xG per match	1.1	0.98
xGA per match	1	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.67

Playing style	Bandırmaspor	Antalyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.28
Field tilt	0.6	0.59
xT per match	0.57	0.86
xTA per match	0.63	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	8	12
Pass completion %	0.81	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	404	431
Passes against per match	259	288
Switches of play per match	32.6	39.5
Long balls per match	47	43

Set pieces	Bandırmaspor	Antalyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.07
Corners per match	2.7	5
Corners against per match	3.9	3.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.46

Other	Bandırmaspor	Antalyaspor
Throw-in control	0.66	0.68

The goalkeepers	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)	Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)
Saves	14	10
Save %	88%	56%
xG prevented	40%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Antalyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bandırmaspor vs Antalyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bandırmaspor 53%, draw 27%, Antalyaspor 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.