Turkish 1. Lig24°20 km/h

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    BandırmasporBandırmasporPossession control
    vs
    BolusporBolusporLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Bandırmaspor (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · Boluspor @ 10.26 (+86 %)

    Bandırmaspor – Boluspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Bandırmaspor 56%X 26%18% Boluspor · 2

    Analysis: Bandırmaspor – Boluspor

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Bandırmaspor's 56% win probability sets the tone for their encounter with Boluspor. The hosts' controlled possession style stands in stark contrast to Boluspor's defensive and direct approach. Bandırmaspor's dominance in this fixture is clear, having never lost in their six head-to-head meetings since 2024. This historical edge is supported by both current form and underlying metrics, with the hosts having a solid expected goals tally of 1.64 compared to Boluspor's 0.94.

    With Boluspor on a four-game losing streak, their prospects look grim against a team that wins 60% of its home matches historically. Bandırmaspor's defensive solidity, reflected in their xGA of 1.0 compared to Boluspor's 1.9, suggests they are well-equipped to handle the visitors' attack, if any. The model hints at a low-scoring affair, with a 12% probability for both the 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines. Over 2.5 goals sits at 48%, barely under the halfway mark, indicating a tilt towards a tighter game.

    For those seeking value, Bandırmaspor aligns with the model's lean and the matchup's statistical backing. A 1-0 victory for the hosts fits the narrative, underlining defensive control and leveraging Boluspor's current vulnerabilities to continue their dominant run in this fixture.

    BandırmasporBandırmaspor
    Form WDDDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #19xP/match #15Points #8
    Key players
    • Muhammed GümüşkayaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
    • Gianni BrunoFxG 0.60 · xT -0.01
    • Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
    BolusporBoluspor
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #18xP/match #20Points #20
    Key players
    • Bertu Alican OzyurekFxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
    • Gokhan AkkanCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Bandırmaspor – Boluspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Boluspor →
    Bandırmaspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–16.8%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–112.0%
    1–25.5%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.2%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.3%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.3%
    4+–13.1%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,64–0,94
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.08EV+9%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bandırmaspor to win56%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bandırmaspor to win56%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Douglas Willian da Silva Souza to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Douglas Willian da Silva Souza to score30%
    • Dean Liço to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Boluspor18% probability@10.26BetsafeEV+86%reference odds
    • 2 · Boluspor18% probability@10.26BetssonEV+86%reference odds
    • 2 · Boluspor18% probability@10.26NordicbetEV+86%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BandırmasporX2 · Boluspor
    Betsafe1.27
    EV+ 23%
    4.80
    EV+ 86%
    10.26
    Betsson1.27
    EV+ 23%
    4.80
    EV+ 86%
    10.26
    Nordicbet1.27
    EV+ 23%
    4.80
    EV+ 86%
    10.26

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 23:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Bandırmaspor win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 1.35 to 1.27 (−6%).

    1-6 %
    72 %67 %

    1.35 → 1.27

    X+5 %
    22 %17 %

    4.57 → 4.80

    2+36 %
    13 %8 %

    7.57 → 10.26

    Over 2,5-2 %
    58 %53 %

    1.69 → 1.65

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Bandırmaspor 4Draw 2Boluspor 0
    Goals: 8–1 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Bandirmaspor dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
    • Boluspor have lost 4 in a row.
    • Bandirmaspor win 60% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bandırmaspor
    Boluspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bandırmaspor (5–3)
    Boluspor (1–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bandırmaspor
    Yusuf Kocaturk: 330 passningar, xT 0.34KocaturkLucas Pedro Alves de Lima: 252 passningar, xT 0.89LimaAli Ulgen: 242 passningar, xT 0.77UlgenDean Lico: 236 passningar, xT -0.15LicoEnes Aydın: 222 passningar, xT 0.46AydınMuhammed Gümüşkaya: 124 passningar, xT 0.21GümüşkayaAkin Alkan: 123 passningar, xT 0.07AlkanAmidou Badji: 107 passningar, xT -0.03BadjiRemi Mulumba: 80 passningar, xT 0.06MulumbaEmirhan Ayhan: 72 passningar, xT 0.05AyhanKerem Dönertaş: 70 passningar, xT 0.1Dönertaş
    Boluspor
    Kevin Andrés Cuesta Rodríguez: 114 passningar, xT 0.16RodríguezJuan Cruz Arguello: 107 passningar, xT 0.19ArguelloAbdulsamet Kırım: 95 passningar, xT 0.36KırımMuhammet Zeki Dursun: 82 passningar, xT 0.13DursunAngelo Tafas: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TafasJosé Martín Hosue Díaz López: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LópezGokhan Akkan: 69 passningar, xT 0.08AkkanBartu Gocmen: 53 passningar, xT 0.23GocmenBertu Alican Ozyurek: 49 passningar, xT 0.2OzyurekCan Arda Yılmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.02YılmazTolunay Artuç: 42 passningar, xT 0.31Artuç
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bandırmaspor
    Yusuf Kocaturk: 330 passningar, xT 0.34KocaturkLucas Pedro Alves de Lima: 252 passningar, xT 0.89LimaAli Ulgen: 242 passningar, xT 0.77UlgenDean Lico: 236 passningar, xT -0.15LicoEnes Aydın: 222 passningar, xT 0.46AydınMuhammed Gümüşkaya: 124 passningar, xT 0.21GümüşkayaAkin Alkan: 123 passningar, xT 0.07AlkanAmidou Badji: 107 passningar, xT -0.03BadjiRemi Mulumba: 80 passningar, xT 0.06MulumbaEmirhan Ayhan: 72 passningar, xT 0.05AyhanKerem Dönertaş: 70 passningar, xT 0.1Dönertaş
    Boluspor
    Kevin Andrés Cuesta Rodríguez: 114 passningar, xT 0.16RodríguezJuan Cruz Arguello: 107 passningar, xT 0.19ArguelloAbdulsamet Kırım: 95 passningar, xT 0.36KırımMuhammet Zeki Dursun: 82 passningar, xT 0.13DursunAngelo Tafas: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TafasJosé Martín Hosue Díaz López: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LópezGokhan Akkan: 69 passningar, xT 0.08AkkanBartu Gocmen: 53 passningar, xT 0.23GocmenBertu Alican Ozyurek: 49 passningar, xT 0.2OzyurekCan Arda Yılmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.02YılmazTolunay Artuç: 42 passningar, xT 0.31Artuç

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBandırmasporBoluspor
    Points60
    xPoints5.82.7
    xG per match0.930.6
    xGA per match11.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.38
    Playing styleBandırmasporBoluspor
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.630.37
    xT per match0.650.68
    xTA per match0.61.1
    Won balls, offensive half2419
    Pressing intensity0.20.23
    Pressing efficiency0.350.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.21
    Entries into the box per match118
    Entries into the box against714
    Pass completion %0.810.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.67
    Passes per match409263
    Passes against per match246435
    Switches of play per match31.123.7
    Long balls per match4530
    Set piecesBandırmasporBoluspor
    xG from free kicks0.020.01
    Corners per match3.51.5
    Corners against per match3.34.8
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.060.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.17
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.89
    OtherBandırmasporBoluspor
    Throw-in control0.710.74
    The goalkeepersAkin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)
    Saves1610
    Save %84%53%
    xG prevented44%15%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bandırmaspor vs Boluspor according to our model?

    The model gives Bandırmaspor a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bandırmaspor 56%, draw 26%, Boluspor 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    BandırmasporBandırmaspor
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.