Batman Petrolspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig6 September 202628°0,1 mm18 km/h

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Batman PetrolsporPossession control

4–3

Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Batman Petrolspor (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fatih Karagümrük @ 3.38 (+10 %)

1 · Batman Petrolspor 37%X 30%33% Fatih Karagümrük · 2

37%

30%

33%

Analysis: Batman Petrolspor – Fatih Karagümrük

Oscar Nilsson · 5 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Batman Petrolspor's current momentum is hard to ignore as they enter this clash on the back of four consecutive victories. Their possession-based style has paid dividends, helping them tally 13 points thus far. The hosts' ability to control the game is reflected in their xG of 1.6 per match, which edges Fatih Karagümrük's 1.2. Despite the visitors' high-pressing approach, it's Batman Petrolspor's composure and tactical discipline that could dictate the pace.

Yet, there's a twist in the tale. The model suggests a slight lean towards Batman Petrolspor with a 37% win probability, but Fatih Karagümrük isn't far behind at 33%. With such tight margins, even the model's most likely outcomes hover around a 1-1 draw or a narrow win for the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük, despite trailing in points and recent form, have an equal xGA per match of 1.2, indicating a resilient defensive structure.

The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 54%, pointing to a match that might see sparks of offense, yet the most likely scorelines suggest a more balanced affair. A 1-1 draw remains the leading candidate at 12%, with a Batman 2-1 win at 9%. Both teams to score is tipped at 58%, reflecting their contrasting styles and potential for goal-scoring opportunities.

The real betting value, however, lies with the visitors. Odds of 3.38 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet provide a 10% edge, per the model's 33% probability for a Karagümrük win. Considering the tight competition and potential for an upset, this is where the sharp money seems to be.

Batman Petrolspor

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #14xT #10xP/match #5Points #1

Key players

Pedro Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
Polat YaldırRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
Bernardo Martins de SousaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.18

Fatih Karagümrük

Form LWWDD

League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #2xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Aleksandar PešićFxG 0.84 · xT 0.23
Tiago Süer Barbaros ÇukurLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
Barış Jakob KalaycıFxG 0.12 · xT 0.11

Final score

4 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Batman Petrolspor 37% · Draw 30% · Fatih Karagümrük 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Fatih KaragümrükBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,47fair 10,51+9 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Batman PetrolsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,84fair 8,41-19 %

Hit

Match prediction: Batman Petrolspor – Fatih Karagümrük

Predicted score matrix

Fatih Karagümrük →

Batman Petrolspor →

0–06.2%

0–17.5%

0–25.2%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.4%

1–112.1%

1–27.9%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–18.8%

2–25.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.3%

3–14.4%

3–23.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,50–1,34

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.83

Over 2,554%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Batman Petrolspor or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Batman Petrolspor or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Sergio Duvan Córdova Lezama to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Sergio Duvan Córdova Lezama to score29%
Emmanouil Siopis to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fatih Karagümrük33% probability@3.38BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Fatih Karagümrük33% probability@3.38BetssonEV+10%reference odds
2 · Fatih Karagümrük33% probability@3.38NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Batman Petrolspor	X	2 · Fatih Karagümrük
Betsafe	1.99	EV+ 2% 3.38	EV+ 10% 3.38
Betsson	1.99	EV+ 2% 3.38	EV+ 10% 3.38
Nordicbet	1.99	EV+ 2% 3.38	EV+ 10% 3.38

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Batman Petrolspor win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 2.28 to 1.99 (−13%).

1-13 %

48 %38 %

2.28 → 1.99

X+3 %

32 %22 %

3.28 → 3.38

2+18 %

35 %25 %

2.86 → 3.38

Over 2,5-5 %

53 %43 %

1.95 → 1.85

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Batman Petrolspor come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Batman Petrolspor

Fatih Karagümrük

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Batman Petrolspor (10–4)

Fatih Karagümrük (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Fatih Karagümrük

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Fatih Karagümrük

The teams in numbers

Performance	Batman Petrolspor	Fatih Karagümrük
Points	13	8
xPoints	7.8	7.1
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.13

Playing style	Batman Petrolspor	Fatih Karagümrük
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.48
xT per match	0.98	1.5
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.22
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.71
Passes per match	313	323
Passes against per match	287	424
Switches of play per match	24.8	23.2
Long balls per match	41	35

Set pieces	Batman Petrolspor	Fatih Karagümrük
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	4.7	3.8
Corners against per match	3.1	6
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.66

Other	Batman Petrolspor	Fatih Karagümrük
Throw-in control	0.68	0.72

The goalkeepers	Caglar Akbaba (Batman Petrolspor)	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)
Saves	19	18
Save %	83%	75%
xG prevented	61%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Batman Petrolspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Batman Petrolspor vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?

The model gives Batman Petrolspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Batman Petrolspor 37%, draw 30%, Fatih Karagümrük 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.