Turkish 1. Lig29°11 km/h

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    BodrumsporBodrumsporPossession control
    0–0
    Esenler EroksporEsenler EroksporPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Esenler Erokspor (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.15 (+2 %)

    Bodrumspor – Esenler Erokspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Bodrumspor 29%X 32%39% Esenler Erokspor · 2

    Analysis: Bodrumspor – Esenler Erokspor

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The numbers reveal a subtle edge for Esenler Erokspor, with a 39% chance of victory, against 29% for Bodrumspor. This matches the expected goals, leaning slightly towards the visitors at 1.41 compared to 1.17 for the hosts. In a clash where fine margins could dictate the outcome, the model's most likely scorelines point to a tight affair, with 1-1 (13%) and a 0-1 away win (10%) leading the probabilities.

    Despite Bodrum's historical 57% home win rate, the small head-to-head sample since 2024 shows a slight tilt against them: one draw and one loss. Erokspor's pressing game and superior xG metrics amplify their slim advantage. However, the over 2.5 goals probability sits at just 48%, indicating a balanced matchup with minimal fireworks.

    For those seeking value, the draw emerges as an attractive proposition. Available at odds of 3.19 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, it offers a 3% edge based on the model's 32% assessment. In a match poised on a knife's edge, this bet stands out as the sharpest angle.

    BodrumsporBodrumspor
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #11xP/match #17Points #16
    Key players
    • Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
    • Ali AytemurCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Ege BilselLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor
    Form LDDDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #1xP/match #16Points #15
    Key players
    • Kubilay KanatsızkuşFxG 0.33 · xT -0.03
    • Onur UlasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
    • Braian José Samudio SegoviaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Bodrumspor 29% · Draw 32% · Esenler Erokspor 39%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - EroksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,22fair 9,89-7 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Bodrumspor – Esenler Erokspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Esenler Erokspor →
    Bodrumspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–110.3%
    0–27.5%
    0–33.5%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.8%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.2%
    2–17.3%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–02.0%
    3–12.9%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,17–1,41
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.74
    Over 2,548%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Esenler Erokspor or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Esenler Erokspor or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score30%
    • Musah Mohammed to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw32% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.15BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BodrumsporX2 · Esenler Erokspor
    Betsafe2.58
    EV+ 2%
    3.15    		2.58
    Betsson2.58
    EV+ 2%
    3.15    		2.58
    Nordicbet2.58
    EV+ 2%
    3.15    		2.58

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 10:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.98 to 1.74 (−12%).

    1+6 %
    41 %31 %

    2.44 → 2.58

    X-7 %
    33 %23 %

    3.39 → 3.15

    20 %
    41 %31 %

    2.58 → 2.58

    Over 2,5+13 %
    54 %44 %

    1.72 → 1.95

    Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Bodrumspor 0Draw 1Esenler Erokspor 1
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Bodrumspor win 57% of their home matches all-time (23 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bodrumspor
    Esenler Erokspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bodrumspor (2–4)
    Esenler Erokspor (2–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 202 passningar, xT 0.44AytemurIsmail Tarim: 197 passningar, xT 0.38TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 146 passningar, xT 0.6YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 113 passningar, xT 0.34KaplanMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanYusuf Sertkaya: 102 passningar, xT 0.17SertkayaDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 96 passningar, xT 0.14SousaEge Bilsel: 85 passningar, xT 0.12BilselFlorian Loshaj: 52 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 51 passningar, xT -0.05HabeşoğluAdem Metin Türk: 38 passningar, xT -0.04Türk
    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 240 passningar, xT 0.54SantosHayrullah Bilazer: 165 passningar, xT 0.71BilazerOnur Ulas: 141 passningar, xT 0.31UlasEnes Alic: 126 passningar, xT 0.77AlicBahadır Öztürk: 120 passningar, xT 0.29ÖztürkRecep Niyaz: 114 passningar, xT 0.28NiyazNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 108 passningar, xT 0.74JanvierMikail Okyar: 105 passningar, xT 0.14OkyarMuhamed Buljubašić: 99 passningar, xT 0.33BuljubašićErdem Canpolat: 85 passningar, xT 0.16CanpolatBraian José Samudio Segovia: 68 passningar, xT 0.28Segovia
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 202 passningar, xT 0.44AytemurIsmail Tarim: 197 passningar, xT 0.38TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 146 passningar, xT 0.6YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 113 passningar, xT 0.34KaplanMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanYusuf Sertkaya: 102 passningar, xT 0.17SertkayaDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 96 passningar, xT 0.14SousaEge Bilsel: 85 passningar, xT 0.12BilselFlorian Loshaj: 52 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 51 passningar, xT -0.05HabeşoğluAdem Metin Türk: 38 passningar, xT -0.04Türk
    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 240 passningar, xT 0.54SantosHayrullah Bilazer: 165 passningar, xT 0.71BilazerOnur Ulas: 141 passningar, xT 0.31UlasEnes Alic: 126 passningar, xT 0.77AlicBahadır Öztürk: 120 passningar, xT 0.29ÖztürkRecep Niyaz: 114 passningar, xT 0.28NiyazNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 108 passningar, xT 0.74JanvierMikail Okyar: 105 passningar, xT 0.14OkyarMuhamed Buljubašić: 99 passningar, xT 0.33BuljubašićErdem Canpolat: 85 passningar, xT 0.16CanpolatBraian José Samudio Segovia: 68 passningar, xT 0.28Segovia

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBodrumsporEsenler Erokspor
    Points33
    xPoints4.14.5
    xG per match0.821.2
    xGA per match1.20.97
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.12
    Playing styleBodrumsporEsenler Erokspor
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.410.72
    xT per match0.951.6
    xTA per match1.10.69
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency0.270.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.25
    Entries into the box per match1417
    Entries into the box against139
    Pass completion %0.760.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.75
    Passes per match344432
    Passes against per match380255
    Switches of play per match30.828.3
    Long balls per match4639
    Set piecesBodrumsporEsenler Erokspor
    xG from free kicks0.030.01
    Corners per match6.15.1
    Corners against per match3.55.3
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.290.71
    OtherBodrumsporEsenler Erokspor
    Throw-in control0.750.74
    The goalkeepersDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)Erdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor)
    Saves1511
    Save %79%79%
    xG prevented74%62%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bodrumspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Esenler Erokspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bodrumspor vs Esenler Erokspor according to our model?

    The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodrumspor 29%, draw 32%, Esenler Erokspor 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.