Turkish 1. Lig19°6 km/h

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    BolusporBolusporLow block & direct
    0–2
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara KeçiörengücüPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · Boluspor @ 5.72 (+78 %)

    Boluspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Boluspor 31%X 28%41% Ankara Keçiörengücü · 2

    Analysis: Boluspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Ankara Keçiörengücü's ability to control possession might be the pivotal factor in their clash against Boluspor. The visitors are coming into the match as slight favorites with a 41% chance of victory according to model probabilities, and their style of play suggests they can dictate the tempo against a Boluspor side currently struggling with a four-match losing streak. This tactical contrast is stark: Boluspor relies on a low defense and direct approach, whereas Ankara Keçiörengücü prefers to dominate possession.

    Digging deeper, the expected goals (xG) figures paint a clear picture of the game's dynamics. Boluspor's xG sits at just 1.17, while their opponents boast a more robust 1.41. This offensive edge is further emphasized by the visitors' xPoints of 7.8 compared to the hosts' 2.7. Looking at season-long per-match numbers, the visitors also show their potency with an xG per match of 1.9, significantly overshadowing Boluspor's 0.59. These metrics highlight Ankara Keçiörengücü's capacity to create quality chances, a crucial element given Boluspor's defensive vulnerabilities.

    However, the betting markets present an intriguing value proposition. Despite the overwhelming edge for Ankara Keçiörengücü, the odds for a Boluspor win at 5.24 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet represent a 63% expected value edge according to the model. While the probability of a home win stands at just 31%, the high odds make it an option worth considering for those seeking high-risk, high-reward plays.

    In terms of scoreline prediction, a 1-1 draw seems the most likely outcome at 13%, with a 0-1 away win at 10%. The model suggests a slight lean towards the under 2.5 goals side, tempering expectations of a high-scoring affair. Ultimately, while Ankara Keçiörengücü's control and attacking prowess may likely secure them a tight win, the value bet on a Boluspor upset at those odds cannot be overlooked for the daring bettor.

    BolusporBoluspor
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #18xP/match #20Points #20
    Key players
    • Bertu Alican OzyurekFxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
    • Gokhan AkkanCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Form LLWDD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #10xT #10xP/match #1Points #12
    Key players
    • Mame DioufFxG 0.50 · xT 0.01
    • Francis EzehFxG 0.22 · xT 0.19
    • Ibrahim AkdagCDMxG 0.40 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Boluspor 31% · Draw 28% · Ankara Keçiörengücü 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - BolusporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 16,62fair 14,29+16 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - KeciörengücüBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,04fair 9,77-59 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Boluspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

    Predicted score matrix

    Ankara Keçiörengücü →
    Boluspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–110.3%
    0–27.6%
    0–33.6%
    0–4+1.7%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.8%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–17.3%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–02.0%
    3–12.8%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,17–1,41
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.29EV+20%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.54

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2)69%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Okwuchukwu Francis Ezeh to score32%
    • Erkam Develi to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Boluspor31% probability@5.72BetsafeEV+78%reference odds
    • 1 · Boluspor31% probability@5.72BetssonEV+78%reference odds
    • 1 · Boluspor31% probability@5.72NordicbetEV+78%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BolusporX2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Betsafe
    EV+ 78%
    5.72
    EV+ 13%
    4.04    		1.49
    Betsson
    EV+ 78%
    5.72
    EV+ 13%
    4.04    		1.49
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 78%
    5.72
    EV+ 13%
    4.04    		1.49

    Odds updated 1 Sept, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Ankara Keçiörengücü win since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 1.71 to 1.49 (−13%).

    1+32 %
    24 %14 %

    4.33 → 5.72

    X+12 %
    29 %19 %

    3.62 → 4.04

    2-13 %
    62 %52 %

    1.71 → 1.49

    Over 2,5-8 %
    63 %53 %

    1.67 → 1.54

    Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Boluspor 1Draw 2Ankara Keçiörengücü 1
    Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Boluspor have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Boluspor
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Boluspor (1–9)
    Ankara Keçiörengücü (10–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Boluspor
    Kevin Andrés Cuesta Rodríguez: 114 passningar, xT 0.16RodríguezJuan Cruz Arguello: 107 passningar, xT 0.19ArguelloAbdulsamet Kırım: 95 passningar, xT 0.36KırımMuhammet Zeki Dursun: 82 passningar, xT 0.13DursunAngelo Tafas: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TafasJosé Martín Hosue Díaz López: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LópezGokhan Akkan: 69 passningar, xT 0.08AkkanBartu Gocmen: 53 passningar, xT 0.23GocmenBertu Alican Ozyurek: 49 passningar, xT 0.2OzyurekCan Arda Yılmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.02YılmazTolunay Artuç: 42 passningar, xT 0.31Artuç
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Ibrahim Akdag: 156 passningar, xT 0.57AkdagWellington Ferreira Nascimento: 133 passningar, xT 0.25NascimentoOguzcan Caliskan: 119 passningar, xT 0.19CaliskanEmre Satilmis: 104 passningar, xT 0.09SatilmisIshak Karaogul: 90 passningar, xT -0.01KaraogulYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirFrancis Ezeh: 62 passningar, xT 0.68EzehJefferson Nogueira Junior: 59 passningar, xT 0.18JuniorSuleyman Lus: 57 passningar, xT 0.24LusAbdullah Celik: 56 passningar, xT 0.37CelikBerkan Keskin: 49 passningar, xT 0.14Keskin
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Boluspor
    Kevin Andrés Cuesta Rodríguez: 114 passningar, xT 0.16RodríguezJuan Cruz Arguello: 107 passningar, xT 0.19ArguelloAbdulsamet Kırım: 95 passningar, xT 0.36KırımMuhammet Zeki Dursun: 82 passningar, xT 0.13DursunAngelo Tafas: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TafasJosé Martín Hosue Díaz López: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LópezGokhan Akkan: 69 passningar, xT 0.08AkkanBartu Gocmen: 53 passningar, xT 0.23GocmenBertu Alican Ozyurek: 49 passningar, xT 0.2OzyurekCan Arda Yılmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.02YılmazTolunay Artuç: 42 passningar, xT 0.31Artuç
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Ibrahim Akdag: 156 passningar, xT 0.57AkdagWellington Ferreira Nascimento: 133 passningar, xT 0.25NascimentoOguzcan Caliskan: 119 passningar, xT 0.19CaliskanEmre Satilmis: 104 passningar, xT 0.09SatilmisIshak Karaogul: 90 passningar, xT -0.01KaraogulYunus Bahadir: 86 passningar, xT 0.16BahadirFrancis Ezeh: 62 passningar, xT 0.68EzehJefferson Nogueira Junior: 59 passningar, xT 0.18JuniorSuleyman Lus: 57 passningar, xT 0.24LusAbdullah Celik: 56 passningar, xT 0.37CelikBerkan Keskin: 49 passningar, xT 0.14Keskin

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBolusporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Points05
    xPoints2.77.8
    xG per match0.591.9
    xGA per match1.91.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.380.25
    Playing styleBolusporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Build-up efficiency0.310.34
    Field tilt0.370.41
    xT per match0.680.96
    xTA per match1.10.85
    Won balls, offensive half1927
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.280.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.17
    Entries into the box per match813
    Entries into the box against1415
    Pass completion %0.710.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.7
    Passes per match263284
    Passes against per match434400
    Switches of play per match23.724.5
    Long balls per match3037
    Set piecesBolusporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    xG from free kicks0.010.06
    Corners per match1.53.2
    Corners against per match4.85
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.170.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.890.55
    OtherBolusporAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Throw-in control0.740.62
    The goalkeepersAngelo Tafas (Boluspor)Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)
    Saves1012
    Save %53%63%
    xG prevented15%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Boluspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Boluspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü according to our model?

    The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 31%, draw 28%, Ankara Keçiörengücü 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.