Turkish 1. Lig21°0,1 mm13 km/h

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    BursasporBursasporPossession control
    vs
    Esenler EroksporEsenler EroksporPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Bursaspor (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Esenler Erokspor @ 6.28 (+95 %)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Bursaspor – Esenler Erokspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Bursaspor 39%X 30%31% Esenler Erokspor · 2

    Analysis: Bursaspor – Esenler Erokspor

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The matchup between Bursaspor and Esenler Erokspor sees Bursaspor, the hosts, riding a wave of three consecutive victories, which boosts their confidence coming into this game. Statistically, they hold the edge with 15 points against Esenler's 4, and their expected goals per match suggest a more potent attack at 1.6 compared to the visitors' 1.1. However, the model indicates a slight lean towards Bursaspor with a 39% win probability, reflecting the competitive nature of this clash.

    Despite Bursaspor's recent winning streak, their expected points indicate they may not have been as dominant as their results suggest. Their xPoints stand at 9.7, only marginally ahead of Esenler's 6.6. The visitors, while struggling to accumulate points, have a nearly identical defensive xGA to Bursaspor, with 0.97 against 0.99. This indicates a potential for Erokspor to stifle Bursaspor's attack if they effectively employ their high pressing style.

    The model's most likely scorelines lean towards a low-scoring affair, with 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%) as the top probabilities. The over/under 2.5 goals probability is just 43%, suggesting a tilt towards an under. Both teams to score is almost a coin flip at 48%, which implies that a single goal might decide the battle of styles between possession control and high press.

    For bettors seeking value, the odds for Erokspor to win at 5.54 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a lucrative opportunity. Despite being underdogs, the model assigns them a 31% chance of winning, offering a significant 72% edge. This suggests that while Bursaspor is favored, there is an enticing market oversight for those willing to back the visitors.

    BursasporBursaspor
    Form WLWWW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.82 · xT 0.03
    • Amine BoutrahLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.28
    • Alperen BabacanCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor
    Form DDLDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #1xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Kubilay KanatsızkuşFxG 0.44 · xT -0.03
    • Guélor Kanga KakuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.21
    • Onur UlasCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Bursaspor – Esenler Erokspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Esenler Erokspor →
    Bursaspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.4%
    0–18.6%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.3%
    1–113.0%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.9%
    2–18.9%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–14.2%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-09%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,41–1,00
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.94EV+10%
    Over 2,543%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Bursaspor or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.76

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Bursaspor or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score34%
    • Soner Aydoğdu to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Esenler Erokspor31% probability@6.28BetsafeEV+95%reference odds
    • 2 · Esenler Erokspor31% probability@6.28BetssonEV+95%reference odds
    • 2 · Esenler Erokspor31% probability@6.28NordicbetEV+95%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BursasporX2 · Esenler Erokspor
    Betsafe1.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.48
    EV+ 95%
    6.28
    Betsson1.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.48
    EV+ 95%
    6.28
    Nordicbet1.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.48
    EV+ 95%
    6.28

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 04:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Bursaspor win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 1.67 to 1.55 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    61 %51 %

    1.67 → 1.55

    X-9 %
    30 %20 %

    3.83 → 3.48

    2+46 %
    23 %13 %

    4.30 → 6.28

    Over 2,5+2 %
    59 %49 %

    1.71 → 1.75

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Bursaspor come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bursaspor
    Esenler Erokspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bursaspor (12–4)
    Esenler Erokspor (2–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bursaspor
    Taha Batuhan Yayıkcı: 316 passningar, xT 0.5YayıkcıJuergen Farid Elitim Sepúlveda: 274 passningar, xT 0.88SepúlvedaAlperen Babacan: 268 passningar, xT 0.16BabacanLincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos: 185 passningar, xT 0.52SantosAmine Boutrah: 174 passningar, xT 0.73BoutrahBarış Gök: 162 passningar, xT 0.63GökRahmetullah Berisbek: 144 passningar, xT 0.23BerisbekZeki Yavru: 135 passningar, xT 0.44YavruEyup Akcan: 108 passningar, xT 0.11AkcanSoner Aydoğdu: 100 passningar, xT 0.23AydoğduHalil Akbunar: 93 passningar, xT 0.35Akbunar
    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 290 passningar, xT 0.56SantosHayrullah Bilazer: 184 passningar, xT 0.82BilazerNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 179 passningar, xT 0.84JanvierBahadır Öztürk: 155 passningar, xT 0.41ÖztürkOnur Ulas: 148 passningar, xT 0.33UlasErdem Canpolat: 129 passningar, xT 0.19CanpolatGuélor Kanga Kaku: 129 passningar, xT 0.39KakuMikail Okyar: 115 passningar, xT 0.11OkyarErkan Kas: 113 passningar, xT 0.69KasEnes Alic: 107 passningar, xT 0.28AlicMuhamed Buljubašić: 104 passningar, xT 0.5Buljubašić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bursaspor
    Taha Batuhan Yayıkcı: 316 passningar, xT 0.5YayıkcıJuergen Farid Elitim Sepúlveda: 274 passningar, xT 0.88SepúlvedaAlperen Babacan: 268 passningar, xT 0.16BabacanLincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos: 185 passningar, xT 0.52SantosAmine Boutrah: 174 passningar, xT 0.73BoutrahBarış Gök: 162 passningar, xT 0.63GökRahmetullah Berisbek: 144 passningar, xT 0.23BerisbekZeki Yavru: 135 passningar, xT 0.44YavruEyup Akcan: 108 passningar, xT 0.11AkcanSoner Aydoğdu: 100 passningar, xT 0.23AydoğduHalil Akbunar: 93 passningar, xT 0.35Akbunar
    Esenler Erokspor
    Luccas Claro dos Santos: 290 passningar, xT 0.56SantosHayrullah Bilazer: 184 passningar, xT 0.82BilazerNicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier: 179 passningar, xT 0.84JanvierBahadır Öztürk: 155 passningar, xT 0.41ÖztürkOnur Ulas: 148 passningar, xT 0.33UlasErdem Canpolat: 129 passningar, xT 0.19CanpolatGuélor Kanga Kaku: 129 passningar, xT 0.39KakuMikail Okyar: 115 passningar, xT 0.11OkyarErkan Kas: 113 passningar, xT 0.69KasEnes Alic: 107 passningar, xT 0.28AlicMuhamed Buljubašić: 104 passningar, xT 0.5Buljubašić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBursasporEsenler Erokspor
    Points154
    xPoints9.76.6
    xG per match1.61.1
    xGA per match0.990.97
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.460.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.16
    Playing styleBursasporEsenler Erokspor
    Build-up efficiency0.360.32
    Field tilt0.650.72
    xT per match1.11.7
    xTA per match0.750.62
    Won balls, offensive half2226
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.290.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.23
    Entries into the box per match1417
    Entries into the box against88
    Pass completion %0.810.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.75
    Passes per match443422
    Passes against per match300266
    Switches of play per match27.832.7
    Long balls per match2945
    Set piecesBursasporEsenler Erokspor
    xG from free kicks0.040.02
    Corners per match5.85.1
    Corners against per match3.53.9
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.7
    OtherBursasporEsenler Erokspor
    Throw-in control0.660.74
    The goalkeepersKerem Matışlı (Bursaspor)Erdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor)
    Saves1017
    Save %71%74%
    xG prevented35%52%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bursaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Esenler Erokspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bursaspor vs Esenler Erokspor according to our model?

    The model gives Bursaspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bursaspor 39%, draw 30%, Esenler Erokspor 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.