Turkish 1. Lig23°20 km/h

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    BursasporBursasporPossession control
    4–0
    IstanbulsporIstanbulsporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Bursaspor (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Istanbulspor @ 7.11 (+78 %)

    Bursaspor – Istanbulspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Bursaspor 48%X 27%25% Istanbulspor · 2

    Analysis: Bursaspor – Istanbulspor

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Curiously, Bursaspor and Istanbulspor both adopt a possession-based approach, yet their fortunes in the season diverge. The hosts, sitting on nine points, are better off than the visitors, who have only managed to claim two. But there's a twist: Bursaspor's expected points (5.4) lag behind Istanbulspor's (5.7), suggesting that the latter has been rather unfortunate in their early outings. The expected goals stat also nudges this narrative, with Bursaspor slightly ahead at 1.3 per match compared to Istanbulspor's 1.2. However, both teams exhibit identical expected goals against figures, which points to a finely balanced contest.

    Staring at the probabilities, the model leans towards a Bursaspor victory, pegging them at 48% to win, while Istanbulspor trail at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, and the probability for a 1-0 outcome isn't far behind. With expected goals reading 1.58 for the hosts against 1.07 for the visitors, it leans towards a low-scoring affair but not decisively so. The over/under line hovering around 49% suggests a tight matchup, with a slight lean to under 2.5 goals.

    Despite Istanbulspor’s poor tally in the points column, there is a significant betting value in their corner. The odds of 6.65 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stand out given their 25% win probability as per the model, making this a worthy shot for those inclined towards high-risk, high-reward wagers. The 66% edge can be an attractive prospect for the astute bettor looking beyond surface-level stats.

    The combination of a balanced playing style and the model's insights provides a landscape where bettors can see the perceived value in the underdogs. Istanbulspor's EV+ odds are not guarantees but present a strategic angle worth considering, especially when the model's valuation hints at an overlooked opportunity.

    BursasporBursaspor
    Form WWLW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #3xP/match #12Points #3
    Key players
    • Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.66 · xT -0.01
    • Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
    • Amine BoutrahLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.24
    IstanbulsporIstanbulspor
    Form WLDLD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #14xP/match #7Points #19
    Key players
    • Ömer Faruk DuymazFxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
    • Alieu ChamLWBxG 0.30 · xT 0.26
    • Ilian Ilianov IlievRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Bursaspor 48% · Draw 27% · Istanbulspor 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - IstanbulsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 22,28fair 17,43+28 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - BursasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,00fair 8,06-50 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Bursaspor – Istanbulspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Istanbulspor →
    Bursaspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–17.2%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–010.9%
    1–112.3%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–15.0%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,58–1,07
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @2.26EV+15%
    Over 2,549%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bursaspor to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bursaspor to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos to score26%
    • Modestas Vorobjovas to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Istanbulspor25% probability@7.11BetsafeEV+78%reference odds
    • 2 · Istanbulspor25% probability@7.11BetssonEV+78%reference odds
    • 2 · Istanbulspor25% probability@7.11NordicbetEV+78%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BursasporX2 · Istanbulspor
    Betsafe1.39
    EV+ 19%
    4.33
    EV+ 78%
    7.11
    Betsson1.39
    EV+ 19%
    4.33
    EV+ 78%
    7.11
    Nordicbet1.39
    EV+ 19%
    4.33
    EV+ 78%
    7.11

    Odds updated 3 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    68 %63 %

    1.41 → 1.39

    X0 %
    24 %19 %

    4.33 → 4.33

    2+7 %
    16 %11 %

    6.65 → 7.11

    Over 2,5-1 %
    60 %55 %

    1.57 → 1.55

    Betsson · 15 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bursaspor
    Istanbulspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bursaspor (6–3)
    Istanbulspor (5–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bursaspor
    Juergen Farid Elitim Sepúlveda: 241 passningar, xT 0.78SepúlvedaTaha Batuhan Yayıkcı: 231 passningar, xT 0.29YayıkcıAlperen Babacan: 205 passningar, xT 0.09BabacanAmine Boutrah: 193 passningar, xT 0.64BoutrahRahmetullah Berisbek: 173 passningar, xT 0.3BerisbekLincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos: 148 passningar, xT 0.36SantosBarış Gök: 138 passningar, xT 0.7GökEyup Akcan: 87 passningar, xT 0.04AkcanKerem Matışlı: 79 passningar, xT 0.06MatışlıSoner Aydoğdu: 64 passningar, xT 0.09AydoğduKelechi Promise Ịheanachọ: 57 passningar, xT -0.08Ịheanachọ
    Istanbulspor
    Alp Tutar: 151 passningar, xT 0.25TutarDuran Şahin: 125 passningar, xT 0.14ŞahinDijlan Aydin: 115 passningar, xT 0.05AydinYusuf Ozer: 112 passningar, xT 0.34OzerPhellipe Cardoso Araújo: 80 passningar, xT 0.5AraújoMichael Ologo: 79 passningar, xT 0.04OlogoIlian Ilianov Iliev: 76 passningar, xT 0.18IlievFatih Tultak: 73 passningar, xT 0.46TultakMuhlis Dağaşan: 69 passningar, xT 0.04DağaşanIsa Dayakli: 66 passningar, xT 0DayakliElvin Mendy: 59 passningar, xT 0.05Mendy
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bursaspor
    Juergen Farid Elitim Sepúlveda: 241 passningar, xT 0.78SepúlvedaTaha Batuhan Yayıkcı: 231 passningar, xT 0.29YayıkcıAlperen Babacan: 205 passningar, xT 0.09BabacanAmine Boutrah: 193 passningar, xT 0.64BoutrahRahmetullah Berisbek: 173 passningar, xT 0.3BerisbekLincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos: 148 passningar, xT 0.36SantosBarış Gök: 138 passningar, xT 0.7GökEyup Akcan: 87 passningar, xT 0.04AkcanKerem Matışlı: 79 passningar, xT 0.06MatışlıSoner Aydoğdu: 64 passningar, xT 0.09AydoğduKelechi Promise Ịheanachọ: 57 passningar, xT -0.08Ịheanachọ
    Istanbulspor
    Alp Tutar: 151 passningar, xT 0.25TutarDuran Şahin: 125 passningar, xT 0.14ŞahinDijlan Aydin: 115 passningar, xT 0.05AydinYusuf Ozer: 112 passningar, xT 0.34OzerPhellipe Cardoso Araújo: 80 passningar, xT 0.5AraújoMichael Ologo: 79 passningar, xT 0.04OlogoIlian Ilianov Iliev: 76 passningar, xT 0.18IlievFatih Tultak: 73 passningar, xT 0.46TultakMuhlis Dağaşan: 69 passningar, xT 0.04DağaşanIsa Dayakli: 66 passningar, xT 0DayakliElvin Mendy: 59 passningar, xT 0.05Mendy

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBursasporIstanbulspor
    Points92
    xPoints5.45.7
    xG per match1.31.2
    xGA per match1.21.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.05
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130.23
    Playing styleBursasporIstanbulspor
    Build-up efficiency0.370.33
    Field tilt0.650.45
    xT per match1.20.9
    xTA per match0.931.1
    Won balls, offensive half2219
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.16
    Entries into the box per match1311
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.810.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.72
    Passes per match440323
    Passes against per match305380
    Switches of play per match25.628.1
    Long balls per match2741
    Set piecesBursasporIstanbulspor
    xG from free kicks0.070.1
    Corners per match5.42.7
    Corners against per match44.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.64
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.61
    OtherBursasporIstanbulspor
    Throw-in control0.640.77
    The goalkeepersKerem Matışlı (Bursaspor)Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)
    Saves813
    Save %73%59%
    xG prevented42%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bursaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Istanbulspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bursaspor vs Istanbulspor according to our model?

    The model gives Bursaspor a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bursaspor 48%, draw 27%, Istanbulspor 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    BandırmasporBandırmaspor
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    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.