Turkish 1. Lig21°0,9 mm24 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Fatih KaragümrükFatih KaragümrükPossession & high press
    vs
    Manisa FKManisa FKPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Fatih Karagümrük (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Manisa FK @ 3.47 (+7 %)

    Fatih Karagümrük – Manisa FK · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Fatih Karagümrük 44%X 25%31% Manisa FK · 2

    Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük – Manisa FK

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The numbers set the stage: Fatih Karagümrük have a 44% chance of winning at home while Manisa FK sit at 31%, with the draw priced at 25%. The expected goals tell a story of balance, 1.56 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors, suggesting a tight contest. The model leans toward Karagümrük, but the historical head-to-head, albeit a small sample, shows Manisa FK having the upper hand with one win and one draw in two encounters.

    Despite the hosts' 61% all-time win rate at home, this match looks less clear-cut. Both teams employ possession-heavy styles, but Manisa FK's possession control might exploit Karagümrük's aggressive high press. Manisa FK edges in expected points and expected goals, presenting a more efficient profile both offensively and defensively. The xG numbers within eight seconds of regaining possession show a significant edge for Manisa FK, indicating their potential to capitalize on transitional moments.

    Given the tight odds and figures, a 1-1 draw appears most likely, with over 2.5 goals a slight favorite at 58%. However, the sharpest angle lies in the away odds. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering 3.47 for a Manisa FK win, there's a 7% value edge according to the model's 31% probability assessment, making it a noteworthy punt in an otherwise evenly poised matchup.

    Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
    Form WWDDL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #2xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Aleksandar PešićFxG 0.88 · xT 0.19
    • Atinc NukanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.18
    • Barış Jakob KalaycıFxG 0.11 · xT 0.14
    Manisa FKManisa FK
    Form WDDLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #11xP/match #8Points #12
    Key players
    • Cheikne SyllaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.14
    • Jonathan LindsethCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
    • Atakan CankayaCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Fatih Karagümrük – Manisa FK

    Predicted score matrix

    Manisa FK →
    Fatih Karagümrük →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.3%
    0–16.8%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–111.5%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.6%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,56–1,44
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.04
    Over 2,558%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Ahmed Traore to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Cheikne Sylla to score30%
    • Emmanouil Siopis to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Manisa FK31% probability@3.47BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Manisa FK31% probability@3.47BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Manisa FK31% probability@3.47NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fatih KaragümrükX2 · Manisa FK
    Betsafe1.903.61
    EV+ 7%
    3.47
    Betsson1.903.61
    EV+ 7%
    3.47
    Nordicbet1.903.61
    EV+ 7%
    3.47

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 04:38

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    51 %46 %

    1.85 → 1.90

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.62 → 3.61

    2-4 %
    28 %23 %

    3.62 → 3.47

    Over 2,5+4 %
    58 %53 %

    1.62 → 1.68

    Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Fatih Karagümrük 0Draw 1Manisa FK 1
    Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Fatih Karagumruk win 61% of their home matches all-time (23 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fatih Karagümrük
    Manisa FK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fatih Karagümrük (9–10)
    Manisa FK (11–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 253 passningar, xT 0.59YalçınDavide Biraschi: 238 passningar, xT 1.29BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 149 passningar, xT 0.07SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 146 passningar, xT 0.7KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 119 passningar, xT 0.58AkbabaMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 101 passningar, xT 1.1SarıkayaMarco Silvestri: 93 passningar, xT 0.12SilvestriAtinc Nukan: 81 passningar, xT 0.35NukanDorukhan Toköz: 74 passningar, xT 0.21ToközBarış Jakob Kalaycı: 69 passningar, xT 0.16KalaycıTiago Süer Barbaros Çukur: 68 passningar, xT 0.43Çukur
    Manisa FK
    Birama Touré: 234 passningar, xT 0.18TouréChristophe Hérelle: 224 passningar, xT 0.82HérelleAtakan Cankaya: 200 passningar, xT 0.2CankayaKadir Kaan Yurdakul: 195 passningar, xT 0.31YurdakulYassine Otmane Benrahou: 193 passningar, xT 0.86BenrahouJulien Anziani: 164 passningar, xT 0.03AnzianiYasin Gureler: 147 passningar, xT 0.52GurelerVedat Karakuş: 118 passningar, xT 0.16KarakuşYusuf Talum: 83 passningar, xT 0.28TalumAda Ibik: 67 passningar, xT 0.17IbikCheikne Sylla: 50 passningar, xT 0.25Sylla
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fatih Karagümrük
    Robin Yalçın: 253 passningar, xT 0.59YalçınDavide Biraschi: 238 passningar, xT 1.29BiraschiEmmanouil Siopis: 149 passningar, xT 0.07SiopisÇağtay Kurukalıp: 146 passningar, xT 0.7KurukalıpEmre Akbaba: 119 passningar, xT 0.58AkbabaMuhammed Emin Sarıkaya: 101 passningar, xT 1.1SarıkayaMarco Silvestri: 93 passningar, xT 0.12SilvestriAtinc Nukan: 81 passningar, xT 0.35NukanDorukhan Toköz: 74 passningar, xT 0.21ToközBarış Jakob Kalaycı: 69 passningar, xT 0.16KalaycıTiago Süer Barbaros Çukur: 68 passningar, xT 0.43Çukur
    Manisa FK
    Birama Touré: 234 passningar, xT 0.18TouréChristophe Hérelle: 224 passningar, xT 0.82HérelleAtakan Cankaya: 200 passningar, xT 0.2CankayaKadir Kaan Yurdakul: 195 passningar, xT 0.31YurdakulYassine Otmane Benrahou: 193 passningar, xT 0.86BenrahouJulien Anziani: 164 passningar, xT 0.03AnzianiYasin Gureler: 147 passningar, xT 0.52GurelerVedat Karakuş: 118 passningar, xT 0.16KarakuşYusuf Talum: 83 passningar, xT 0.28TalumAda Ibik: 67 passningar, xT 0.17IbikCheikne Sylla: 50 passningar, xT 0.25Sylla

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFatih KaragümrükManisa FK
    Points88
    xPoints7.98.8
    xG per match1.41.5
    xGA per match1.51.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.37
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.28
    Playing styleFatih KaragümrükManisa FK
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.510.51
    xT per match1.60.99
    xTA per match1.40.72
    Won balls, offensive half2724
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.250.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.29
    Entries into the box per match1412
    Entries into the box against1411
    Pass completion %0.760.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.73
    Passes per match330387
    Passes against per match397309
    Switches of play per match2627.9
    Long balls per match3838
    Set piecesFatih KaragümrükManisa FK
    xG from free kicks0.090.09
    Corners per match4.53.6
    Corners against per match5.25
    xG per corner0.070.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.6
    OtherFatih KaragümrükManisa FK
    Throw-in control0.710.69
    The goalkeepersMarco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK)
    Saves2012
    Save %69%55%
    xG prevented63%19%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fatih Karagümrük
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Manisa FK
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa FK according to our model?

    The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fatih Karagümrük 44%, draw 25%, Manisa FK 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.