Iğdır vs Manisa FK: Prediction & Odds (3 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig3 September 202624°9 km/h

Läs på svenska

IğdırPossession control

4–2

Manisa FKPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (43%)

1 · Iğdır 43%X 28%29% Manisa FK · 2

43%

28%

29%

Analysis: Iğdır – Manisa FK

Marcus Johansson · 31 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Iğdır holds a narrow historical advantage in this matchup, having secured two wins and two draws against Manisa FK in their recent encounters. However, with only four games in this head-to-head sample, it's a less reliable predictor than current form and metrics. The model suggests a slight edge for Iğdır, assigning them a 43% chance of victory compared to Manisa's 29%, but the visitors' unbeaten streak in their last five league matches hints at a squad that knows how to grind out results.

The points and expected points metrics give Manisa a slight edge as well, with 8 points accumulated against Iğdır's 6, and expected points also favoring them 6.8 to 5.6. This suggests that while Iğdır has been solid, Manisa has shown a consistent ability to surpass expectations. In terms of expected goals, Manisa seems more potent, averaging 1.6 xG per match, dwarfing Iğdır's 0.82. Yet, Iğdır's defense appears tighter, with a slightly better xGA of 0.9 compared to Manisa's 0.97.

Both teams share a possession-control style, typically leading to tightly contested matches where clear-cut opportunities might be a luxury. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), and 2-1 (9%) reflect this, indicating potential for a closely fought encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 53%, slightly leaning towards a more open game, while a 56% chance that both teams will score suggests a somewhat balanced affair.

Given these dynamics, the intersection of form, metrics, and probabilities points toward a closely contested match, with a 1-1 draw being a likely result.

Iğdır

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #4xT #16xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Arda ColakFxG 0.19 · xT -0.03
Giovanni CrociataLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Alim OzturkCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Manisa FK

Form WWWDD

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #5xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Cheikne SyllaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.17
Kadir Kaan YurdakulRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Jonathan LindsethCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.08

Final score

4 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Iğdır 43% · Draw 28% · Manisa FK 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Manisa FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,48fair 13,80-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: Iğdır – Manisa FK

Predicted score matrix

Manisa FK →

Iğdır →

0–06.4%

0–16.8%

0–24.3%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.5%

1–112.0%

1–26.9%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.4%

2–25.6%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.3%

3–15.1%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,62–1,18

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.90

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)72%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)72%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Daniel Avramovski to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Loïs Diony to score28%
Doğan Erdoğan to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Iğdır	X	2 · Manisa FK
Betsafe	2.04	3.37	3.28
Betsson	2.04	3.37	3.28
Nordicbet	2.04	3.37	3.28

Odds updated 3 Sept, 06:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

47 %42 %

2.13 → 2.04

X+3 %

30 %25 %

3.28 → 3.37

2+5 %

31 %26 %

3.13 → 3.28

Over 2,5-3 %

53 %48 %

1.83 → 1.78

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Iğdır 2Draw 2Manisa FK 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Manisa FK are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Manisa FK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Iğdır (3–2)

Manisa FK (8–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Manisa FK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Manisa FK

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Manisa FK
Points	6	8
xPoints	5.6	6.8
xG per match	0.82	1.6
xGA per match	0.9	0.97
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.11

Playing style	Iğdır	Manisa FK
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.41	0.57
xT per match	0.85	1.1
xTA per match	1	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	26	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.29
Entries into the box per match	8	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	329	423
Passes against per match	373	290
Switches of play per match	22.5	27.8
Long balls per match	37	37

Set pieces	Iğdır	Manisa FK
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.09
Corners per match	5.1	3
Corners against per match	4	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.56

Other	Iğdır	Manisa FK
Throw-in control	0.67	0.71

The goalkeepers	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)	Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK)
Saves	12	10
Save %	86%	71%
xG prevented	89%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Manisa FK

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Manisa FK according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 43%, draw 28%, Manisa FK 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.