Istanbulspor vs Iğdır: Prediction & Odds (7 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig7 September 202623°18 km/h

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IstanbulsporPossession control

1–2

IğdırPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Istanbulspor (41%)

1 · Istanbulspor 41%X 28%31% Iğdır · 2

41%

28%

31%

Analysis: Istanbulspor – Iğdır

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Istanbulspor, despite their position near the bottom with just 2 points, enters this clash against Iğdır with a slight analytical edge. The model gives the hosts a 41% chance of victory, surpassing the odds offered by bookmakers Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, all pricing an Istanbulspor win at 3.01 (23% edge). Such value highlights potential for a home upset, yet the head-to-head record leans heavily toward the visitors, who have won three of the four encounters since 2024.

In terms of expected goals, the numbers suggest a tight game. Istanbulspor's xG is calculated at 1.61, while Iğdır's is slightly lower at 1.26. Both teams operate under a possession control style, hinting at a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair. Despite this, the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, and both teams finding the net is at 58%, pointing to a likely 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline. This aligns with the model's most probable outcomes.

Amidst the statistics and trends, the sharpest betting angle lies in the overlooked potential of a home win at substantial odds. With a 23% value edge, backing Istanbulspor on the 3.01 line offers calculated risk for those convinced by the model's lean.

Istanbulspor

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #14xP/match #9Points #19

Key players

Ömer Faruk DuymazFxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Alieu ChamLWBxG 0.30 · xT 0.26
Phellipe Cardoso AraújoFxG 0.63 · xT 0.25

Iğdır

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #13xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Arda ColakFxG 0.22 · xT -0.02
Giovanni CrociataLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Alim OzturkCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Istanbulspor 41% · Draw 28% · Iğdır 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IstanbulsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,55fair 7,42+29 %

Miss

Match prediction: Istanbulspor – Iğdır

Predicted score matrix

Iğdır →

Istanbulspor →

0–06.0%

0–16.8%

0–24.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.8%

1–111.8%

1–27.3%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.2%

2–25.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.9%

3–15.0%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,61–1,26

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.94

Over 2,555%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Istanbulspor or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz to score23%
Efe-Kaan Sihlaroğlu to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Istanbulspor41% probability@3.01BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
1 · Istanbulspor41% probability@3.01BetssonEV+23%reference odds
1 · Istanbulspor41% probability@3.01NordicbetEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Istanbulspor	X	2 · Iğdır
Betsafe	EV+ 23% 3.01	3.29	2.19
Betsson	EV+ 23% 3.01	3.29	2.19
Nordicbet	EV+ 23% 3.01	3.29	2.19

Odds updated 4 Sept, 19:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Iğdır win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 2.38 to 2.19 (−8%).

1+11 %

35 %30 %

2.71 → 3.01

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.29 → 3.29

2-8 %

43 %38 %

2.38 → 2.19

Over 2,5-5 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.75

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Istanbulspor 1Draw 0Iğdır 3

Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Istanbulspor

Iğdır

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Istanbulspor (5–13)

Iğdır (7–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Iğdır

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Iğdır

The teams in numbers

Performance	Istanbulspor	Iğdır
Points	2	9
xPoints	5.7	7.6
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.11

Playing style	Istanbulspor	Iğdır
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.45	0.46
xT per match	0.9	0.92
xTA per match	1.1	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	19	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.22
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	323	328
Passes against per match	380	353
Switches of play per match	28.1	21.7
Long balls per match	41	37

Set pieces	Istanbulspor	Iğdır
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.08
Corners per match	2.7	5.4
Corners against per match	4.4	4.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.59

Other	Istanbulspor	Iğdır
Throw-in control	0.77	0.68

The goalkeepers	Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)
Saves	16	17
Save %	57%	81%
xG prevented	28%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Istanbulspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Istanbulspor vs Iğdır according to our model?

The model gives Istanbulspor a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istanbulspor 41%, draw 28%, Iğdır 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.