Turkish 1. Lig25°19 km/h

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    Manisa FKManisa FKPossession & high press
    0–0
    BodrumsporBodrumsporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Manisa FK (39%)

    Manisa FK – Bodrumspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Manisa FK 39%X 29%32% Bodrumspor · 2

    Analysis: Manisa FK – Bodrumspor

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A nine-match scoring streak for Manisa FK anchors this Turkish 1. Lig clash against Bodrumspor. Despite the narrow model edge for Manisa FK at 39% to win, their relentless ability to find the net suggests they might just have the upper hand in a tightly poised contest. The expected goals indicate a close battle, with Manisa's 1.38 narrowly topping Bodrum's 1.30, hinting at a game that might be determined by minimal margins.

    While only two head-to-head encounters since 2024 offer a small sample, Manisa's slight advantage in those matches aligns with their current form. Their possession and high-press style may unsettle Bodrumspor, who rely on possession control but have struggled to convert it into points, securing just two compared to Manisa’s seven so far this season. The numbers further favor Manisa FK with superior xG and slightly better defensive stats, which might just tilt the balance in their favor.

    In conclusion, the model's lean towards Manisa FK is justified by their consistent offensive output and defensive steadiness. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 (13%) reflects a balanced match, and Manisa FK's win probability of 39% captures the edge in both form and expected metrics.

    Manisa FKManisa FK
    Form LWWWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #8xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Cheikne SyllaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.17
    • Kadir Kaan YurdakulRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Jonathan LindsethCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
    BodrumsporBodrumspor
    Form WLLDD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #7xP/match #16Points #18
    Key players
    • Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.03
    • Adem Metin TürkRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
    • Ali AytemurCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Manisa FK 39% · Draw 29% · Bodrumspor 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Manisa FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,34fair 10,06-27 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Manisa FK – Bodrumspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Bodrumspor →
    Manisa FK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.3%
    0–18.6%
    0–25.8%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–112.7%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.5%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,38–1,30
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.83
    Over 2,550%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Manisa FK or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.12

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Manisa FK or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Loïs Diony to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Loïs Diony to score29%
    • Musah Mohammed to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Manisa FKX2 · Bodrumspor
    Betsafe2.193.293.01
    Betsson2.193.293.01
    Nordicbet2.193.293.01

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Manisa FK win since 26 August — the odds have shortened from 2.42 to 2.19 (−9%).

    1-9 %
    43 %38 %

    2.42 → 2.19

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.28 → 3.29

    2+13 %
    35 %30 %

    2.66 → 3.01

    Over 2,50 %
    52 %47 %

    1.85 → 1.85

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Manisa FK 1Draw 0Bodrumspor 1
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Manisa FK have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Manisa FK
    Bodrumspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Manisa FK (8–4)
    Bodrumspor (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Manisa FK
    Christophe Hérelle: 176 passningar, xT 0.23HérelleKadir Kaan Yurdakul: 175 passningar, xT 0.3YurdakulBirama Touré: 170 passningar, xT 0.02TouréAtakan Cankaya: 162 passningar, xT 0.23CankayaYassine Otmane Benrahou: 101 passningar, xT 0.71BenrahouJulien Anziani: 99 passningar, xT 0.04AnzianiJonathan Lindseth: 81 passningar, xT 0.12LindsethVedat Karakuş: 79 passningar, xT 0.11KarakuşYasin Gureler: 50 passningar, xT 0.06GurelerYusuf Talum: 44 passningar, xT 0.31TalumWaldir Alenis Vargas Valentin: 42 passningar, xT 0.19Valentin
    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 157 passningar, xT 0.38AytemurIsmail Tarim: 150 passningar, xT 0.36TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 113 passningar, xT 0.54YavuzayMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanEmre Kaplan: 75 passningar, xT 0.22KaplanDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 69 passningar, xT 0.14SousaEge Bilsel: 67 passningar, xT 0.08BilselYusuf Sertkaya: 64 passningar, xT 0.21SertkayaFlorian Loshaj: 52 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 39 passningar, xT 0.01HabeşoğluJonathan Okita: 31 passningar, xT 0.07Okita
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Manisa FK
    Christophe Hérelle: 176 passningar, xT 0.23HérelleKadir Kaan Yurdakul: 175 passningar, xT 0.3YurdakulBirama Touré: 170 passningar, xT 0.02TouréAtakan Cankaya: 162 passningar, xT 0.23CankayaYassine Otmane Benrahou: 101 passningar, xT 0.71BenrahouJulien Anziani: 99 passningar, xT 0.04AnzianiJonathan Lindseth: 81 passningar, xT 0.12LindsethVedat Karakuş: 79 passningar, xT 0.11KarakuşYasin Gureler: 50 passningar, xT 0.06GurelerYusuf Talum: 44 passningar, xT 0.31TalumWaldir Alenis Vargas Valentin: 42 passningar, xT 0.19Valentin
    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 157 passningar, xT 0.38AytemurIsmail Tarim: 150 passningar, xT 0.36TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 113 passningar, xT 0.54YavuzayMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanEmre Kaplan: 75 passningar, xT 0.22KaplanDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 69 passningar, xT 0.14SousaEge Bilsel: 67 passningar, xT 0.08BilselYusuf Sertkaya: 64 passningar, xT 0.21SertkayaFlorian Loshaj: 52 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 39 passningar, xT 0.01HabeşoğluJonathan Okita: 31 passningar, xT 0.07Okita

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceManisa FKBodrumspor
    Points72
    xPoints4.93.3
    xG per match1.81
    xGA per match1.21.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.420.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.11
    Playing styleManisa FKBodrumspor
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.540.43
    xT per match11.1
    xTA per match0.711
    Won balls, offensive half2724
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.370.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.22
    Entries into the box per match1315
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.810.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.72
    Passes per match417355
    Passes against per match282360
    Switches of play per match26.232.5
    Long balls per match3550
    Set piecesManisa FKBodrumspor
    xG from free kicks0.120.04
    Corners per match2.66.7
    Corners against per match4.63.4
    xG per corner0.010
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.3
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.4
    OtherManisa FKBodrumspor
    Throw-in control0.70.75
    The goalkeepersVedat Karakuş (Manisa FK)Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)
    Saves814
    Save %67%78%
    xG prevented30%73%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Manisa FK
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Bodrumspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Manisa FK vs Bodrumspor according to our model?

    The model gives Manisa FK a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Manisa FK 39%, draw 29%, Bodrumspor 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    BandırmasporBandırmaspor
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.