Turkish 1. Lig28°28 km/h

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    MA
    Mardin 1969Possession control
    1–0
    BodrumsporBodrumsporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Mardin 1969 (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bodrumspor @ 4.35 (+22 %)

    Mardin 1969 – Bodrumspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Mardin 1969 41%X 30%28% Bodrumspor · 2

    Analysis: Mardin 1969 – Bodrumspor

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The numbers lean towards a tight contest, with Mardin 1969 holding a slight edge on both form and expected goals. Unbeaten in their last five league encounters, the hosts have managed to grind out results with a focus on possession control. With a model probability of 41% for a home win, they are rightly favored, though not overwhelmingly.

    Mardin's defensive solidity is highlighted by their xGA of 0.83 per match, which outshines Bodrumspor's 1.2. This defensive edge suggests that scoring opportunities for the visitors may be sparse, reinforcing the low likelihood of a high-scoring affair. The expected goals figures, 1.35 for Mardin against 1.15 for Bodrum, also point towards a low-scoring draw or a narrow home victory. At just 46%, the over 2.5 goals market doesn't entice, and the books see a 51% chance of both teams finding the net.

    While Bodrumspor's odds of 4.35 offer theoretical value with a notable 22% edge across a trio of bookmakers (Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet), it’s a speculative play given their lackluster form. With just three league points and a meager xG of 0.82, the visitors are struggling to make their possession count.

    Given the small sample size of head-to-head encounters, less emphasis should be placed on past meetings compared to current form and expected stats. The model leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, but a 1-0 win for Mardin cannot be ruled out due to their defensive reliability.

    The sharpest angle here is the EV+ on Bodrumspor, enticing for those seeking long-shot value despite their underdog status. For the more conservative bettor, however, a low-scoring result backing Mardin aligns better with the data, underscoring that steady, defensively-minded bets are often the wiser path.

    Mardin 1969
    Form DWWDD
    League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #5xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Olarenwaju KayodeFxG 0.79 · xT 0.05
    • Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.20
    • Bünyamin BalatRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    BodrumsporBodrumspor
    Form LDDDD
    League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #12xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
    • Ali AytemurCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Ege BilselLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Mardin 1969 41% · Draw 30% · Bodrumspor 28%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Mardin 1969 SporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,65fair 10,87-39 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Mardin 1969 – Bodrumspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Bodrumspor →
    Mardin 1969 →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.6%
    0–19.1%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–113.1%
    1–27.3%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.5%
    2–18.6%
    2–24.9%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,35–1,15
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.71
    Over 2,546%
    @2.00

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (1X)69%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (1X)69%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Đorđe Denić to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Đorđe Denić to score19%
    • Mustafa Erdilman to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Bodrumspor28% probability@4.35BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
    • 2 · Bodrumspor28% probability@4.35BetssonEV+22%reference odds
    • 2 · Bodrumspor28% probability@4.35NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mardin 1969X2 · Bodrumspor
    Betsafe1.76
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 22%
    4.35
    Betsson1.76
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 22%
    4.35
    Nordicbet1.76
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    EV+ 22%
    4.35

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Mardin 1969 win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 1.76 (−24%).

    1-24 %
    56 %36 %

    2.32 → 1.76

    X+4 %
    38 %18 %

    3.27 → 3.40

    2+55 %
    37 %17 %

    2.80 → 4.35

    Over 2,5+3 %
    56 %36 %

    1.95 → 2.00

    Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Mardin 1969 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mardin 1969
    Bodrumspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mardin 1969 (8–3)
    Bodrumspor (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mardin 1969
    Ugur Gezer: 215 passningar, xT 0.36GezerBaba Alhassan: 190 passningar, xT 0.08AlhassanEray Korkmaz: 169 passningar, xT 0.49KorkmazMustafa Şengül: 167 passningar, xT 0.26ŞengülDjordje Denic: 111 passningar, xT 0.3DenicEmre Taşdemir: 110 passningar, xT 1.01TaşdemirZdravko Minchev Dimitrov: 106 passningar, xT 0.77DimitrovErce Kardesler: 92 passningar, xT 0.09KardeslerMuammer Denizhan Taskan: 91 passningar, xT 0.04TaskanTonio Teklic: 88 passningar, xT 0.23TeklicBünyamin Balat: 70 passningar, xT 0.09Balat
    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 231 passningar, xT 0.48AytemurIsmail Tarim: 226 passningar, xT 0.43TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 171 passningar, xT 0.64YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 139 passningar, xT 0.4KaplanYusuf Sertkaya: 125 passningar, xT 0.17SertkayaDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 116 passningar, xT 0.16SousaMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanEge Bilsel: 106 passningar, xT 0.17BilselFlorian Loshaj: 65 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 60 passningar, xT -0.02HabeşoğluAdem Metin Türk: 48 passningar, xT 0.01Türk
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mardin 1969
    Ugur Gezer: 215 passningar, xT 0.36GezerBaba Alhassan: 190 passningar, xT 0.08AlhassanEray Korkmaz: 169 passningar, xT 0.49KorkmazMustafa Şengül: 167 passningar, xT 0.26ŞengülDjordje Denic: 111 passningar, xT 0.3DenicEmre Taşdemir: 110 passningar, xT 1.01TaşdemirZdravko Minchev Dimitrov: 106 passningar, xT 0.77DimitrovErce Kardesler: 92 passningar, xT 0.09KardeslerMuammer Denizhan Taskan: 91 passningar, xT 0.04TaskanTonio Teklic: 88 passningar, xT 0.23TeklicBünyamin Balat: 70 passningar, xT 0.09Balat
    Bodrumspor
    Ali Aytemur: 231 passningar, xT 0.48AytemurIsmail Tarim: 226 passningar, xT 0.43TarimBerşan Yavuzay: 171 passningar, xT 0.64YavuzayEmre Kaplan: 139 passningar, xT 0.4KaplanYusuf Sertkaya: 125 passningar, xT 0.17SertkayaDiogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa: 116 passningar, xT 0.16SousaMustafa Erdilman: 107 passningar, xT 0.45ErdilmanEge Bilsel: 106 passningar, xT 0.17BilselFlorian Loshaj: 65 passningar, xT 0.19LoshajAli Habeşoğlu: 60 passningar, xT -0.02HabeşoğluAdem Metin Türk: 48 passningar, xT 0.01Türk

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMardin 1969Bodrumspor
    Points93
    xPoints9.14.1
    xG per match1.80.82
    xGA per match0.831.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.460.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.12
    Playing styleMardin 1969Bodrumspor
    Build-up efficiency0.380.31
    Field tilt0.560.41
    xT per match1.10.95
    xTA per match0.781.1
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.19
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.740.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.72
    Passes per match324344
    Passes against per match353380
    Switches of play per match33.630.8
    Long balls per match3946
    Set piecesMardin 1969Bodrumspor
    xG from free kicks0.020.03
    Corners per match6.16
    Corners against per match2.63.5
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against00.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.29
    OtherMardin 1969Bodrumspor
    Throw-in control0.670.75
    The goalkeepersErce Kardesler (Mardin 1969)Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)
    Saves1119
    Save %79%83%
    xG prevented43%77%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Mardin 1969
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Bodrumspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mardin 1969 vs Bodrumspor according to our model?

    The model gives Mardin 1969 a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mardin 1969 41%, draw 30%, Bodrumspor 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.