Turkish 1. Lig27°17 km/h

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    MU
    MuğlasporPossession & high press
    2–2
    VansporVansporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Muğlaspor (58%)

    Muğlaspor – Vanspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Muğlaspor 58%X 25%17% Vanspor · 2

    Analysis: Muğlaspor – Vanspor

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Muğlaspor's home ground has been a fortress this season, and with a 58% win probability against Van Spor FK, the hosts clearly have the upper hand. Despite their modest start, Van has only managed to rack up four points, compared to Muğlaspor's eight. The expected goals tell the same story: Muğlaspor are generating 1.0 xG per match on average this season, significantly outpacing Van's 0.72, and in this matchup the model projects 1.69 expected goals for Muğlaspor against 0.90 for Van Spor FK.

    The playing styles of the two teams differ, with Muğlaspor favoring possession and a high press, while Van Spor FK lean toward possession control. Yet the defensive vulnerabilities of Van Spor, conceding an average of 1.8 xGA per match, could prove costly. Muğlaspor's defense is sturdier, matching their xG with a 1.0 xGA, suggesting a more balanced side. The model's most likely scorelines — 1-0 at 12% and 2-0 at 11% — align closely with these figures, reinforcing the home side's edge.

    Considering the over/under line at 2.5 goals is finely poised at 48%, a low-scoring affair seems probable. Muğlaspor to win stands out as the most compelling angle given their home advantage and superior metrics, though no betting outcome is ever guaranteed.

    Muğlaspor
    Form LDDWW
    League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #7xP/match #14Points #9
    Key players
    • Yasin UzunoğluFxG 0.63 · xT 0.01
    • Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
    • Engin Poyraz Efe YıldırımFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
    VansporVanspor
    Form LLWDL
    League ranking xG #19xGA #19xT #20xP/match #18Points #14
    Key players
    • Naby OulareCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Furkan OzhanRWxG 0.40 · xT 0.14
    • Jurgen BardhiCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Muğlaspor 58% · Draw 25% · Vanspor 17%

    Match prediction: Muğlaspor – Vanspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Vanspor →
    Muğlaspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.0%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–012.4%
    1–111.7%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.8%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–06.1%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,69–0,90
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    –
    Over 2,548%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Muğlaspor to win58%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.57

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Muğlaspor to win58%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Daniel Avramovski to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Daniel Avramovski to score28%
    • Faruk Can Genç to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Muğlaspor
    Vanspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Muğlaspor (3–2)
    Vanspor (5–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Muğlaspor
    Yigit Fidan: 199 passningar, xT 0.35FidanBilal Ceylan: 172 passningar, xT 0.83CeylanAli Kaan Guneren: 141 passningar, xT 0.16GunerenLuis Enrique Del Pino Mago: 135 passningar, xT 0.22MagoDaniel Avramovski: 132 passningar, xT 0.63AvramovskiAli Barak: 113 passningar, xT 0.95BarakSelim Dilli: 113 passningar, xT 0.19DilliEkrem Kilicarslan: 99 passningar, xT 0.04KilicarslanJurgen Çelhaka: 95 passningar, xT 0.12ÇelhakaEngin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım: 84 passningar, xT 0.5YıldırımMamady Diarra: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Diarra
    Vanspor
    Naby Oulare: 229 passningar, xT 0.3OulareSinan Osmanoglu: 133 passningar, xT 0.26OsmanogluBatuhan İşçiler: 123 passningar, xT 0.11İşçilerÖzkan Yiğiter: 117 passningar, xT 0.16YiğiterFaruk Can Genc: 107 passningar, xT 0.21GencMehmet Manış: 96 passningar, xT 0.35ManışMehmet Ozcan: 84 passningar, xT 0.25OzcanAlperen Uysal: 80 passningar, xT 0.03UysalJurgen Bardhi: 66 passningar, xT 0.2BardhiAbdulsamed Damlu: 53 passningar, xT 0.04DamluOzan Can Kökçü: 50 passningar, xT 0.09Kökçü
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Muğlaspor
    Yigit Fidan: 199 passningar, xT 0.35FidanBilal Ceylan: 172 passningar, xT 0.83CeylanAli Kaan Guneren: 141 passningar, xT 0.16GunerenLuis Enrique Del Pino Mago: 135 passningar, xT 0.22MagoDaniel Avramovski: 132 passningar, xT 0.63AvramovskiAli Barak: 113 passningar, xT 0.95BarakSelim Dilli: 113 passningar, xT 0.19DilliEkrem Kilicarslan: 99 passningar, xT 0.04KilicarslanJurgen Çelhaka: 95 passningar, xT 0.12ÇelhakaEngin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım: 84 passningar, xT 0.5YıldırımMamady Diarra: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Diarra
    Vanspor
    Naby Oulare: 229 passningar, xT 0.3OulareSinan Osmanoglu: 133 passningar, xT 0.26OsmanogluBatuhan İşçiler: 123 passningar, xT 0.11İşçilerÖzkan Yiğiter: 117 passningar, xT 0.16YiğiterFaruk Can Genc: 107 passningar, xT 0.21GencMehmet Manış: 96 passningar, xT 0.35ManışMehmet Ozcan: 84 passningar, xT 0.25OzcanAlperen Uysal: 80 passningar, xT 0.03UysalJurgen Bardhi: 66 passningar, xT 0.2BardhiAbdulsamed Damlu: 53 passningar, xT 0.04DamluOzan Can Kökçü: 50 passningar, xT 0.09Kökçü

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMuğlasporVanspor
    Points84
    xPoints6.65
    xG per match10.72
    xGA per match11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.37
    Playing styleMuğlasporVanspor
    Build-up efficiency0.340.3
    Field tilt0.450.31
    xT per match1.10.56
    xTA per match0.791
    Won balls, offensive half2217
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.18
    Entries into the box per match97
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.750.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.7
    Passes per match317280
    Passes against per match423440
    Switches of play per match18.115.3
    Long balls per match2526
    Set piecesMuğlasporVanspor
    xG from free kicks0.010.06
    Corners per match2.83.4
    Corners against per match3.84.2
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.33
    OtherMuğlasporVanspor
    Throw-in control0.680.66
    The goalkeepersEkrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)Naby Oulare (Vanspor)
    Saves116
    Save %85%100%
    xG prevented52%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Muğlaspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vanspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Muğlaspor vs Vanspor according to our model?

    The model gives Muğlaspor a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Muğlaspor 58%, draw 25%, Vanspor 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.