Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig5 September 202625°21 km/h

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PendiksporCounter-attacks & crosses

1–0

ÜmraniyesporBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Pendikspor (52%)

1 · Pendikspor 52%X 27%21% Ümraniyespor · 2

52%

27%

21%

Analysis: Pendikspor – Ümraniyespor

Anna Karlsson · 5 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA does not mention any betting odds or bookmaker, so the claim "Pendikspor's outright win at odds of 2.00 with Bet365" is unsupported and should be removed.

Corrected TEXT:

Pendikspor's strength in counterattacks and crosses is set to play a pivotal role in their upcoming match against Ümraniyespor. The hosts hold a slight edge across multiple metrics, including expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints), making them the team to watch. With Pendikspor's model probability at 52%, their tactical approach might just be what tips the balance in their favor.

Ümraniyespor's balanced and physical style has kept their matches competitive, but their defensive vulnerability is concerning. They concede an average of 1.4 expected goals against per match. This could be a significant liability, especially against a team like Pendikspor, capable of exploiting defensive lapses through quick counterattacks. Pendikspor's xG per match is marginally higher at 1.2 compared to the visitors' 0.99, suggesting they might create more scoring opportunities.

The head-to-head record since 2024 is too limited to draw definitive conclusions, with only four encounters resulting in one win for Pendikspor and three draws. While this shows Pendikspor's ability to remain unbeaten against their rivals, it underscores the small sample size and cautions against over-reliance on these results.

The model suggests a cautious approach to goal totals, with over 2.5 goals at just 47% probability. This is not an overwhelming endorsement of a high-scoring affair, further backed by the 50% chance of both teams finding the net. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline seems plausible, aligning with the most likely outcomes predicted by the model.

For bettors, the statistical lean towards Pendikspor offers a value angle. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of Pendikspor's tactical strengths and Ümraniyespor's defensive frailties provides a compelling case for the hosts to edge this contest.

Pendikspor

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #8xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioFxG 0.26 · xT 0.00
Hakan YeşilCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.35
Yekta SönmezFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03

Ümraniyespor

Form DLDDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #11xP/match #13Points #16

Key players

Cebio SoukouFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pendikspor 52% · Draw 27% · Ümraniyespor 21%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ÜmraniyesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,37fair 22,30-13 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,75fair 8,26-18 %

Miss

Match prediction: Pendikspor – Ümraniyespor

Predicted score matrix

Ümraniyespor →

Pendikspor →

0–08.1%

0–17.1%

0–23.6%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.1%

1–112.3%

1–25.7%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.9%

2–19.5%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.2%

3–15.0%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.0%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-012%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,59–0,96

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.71

Over 2,547%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pendikspor to win52%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pendikspor to win52%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score28%
Andrej Đokanović to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Pendikspor	X	2 · Ümraniyespor
Betsafe	1.74	3.49	4.34
Betsson	1.74	3.49	4.34
Nordicbet	1.74	3.49	4.34

Odds updated 3 Sept, 22:37

Odds movement

10 %

55 %50 %

1.74 → 1.74

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.49 → 3.49

20 %

24 %19 %

4.34 → 4.34

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.00 → 2.00

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Pendikspor 1Draw 3Ümraniyespor 0

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pendikspor

Ümraniyespor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pendikspor (7–11)

Ümraniyespor (4–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Ümraniyespor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Ümraniyespor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pendikspor	Ümraniyespor
Points	5	3
xPoints	6.8	6.6
xG per match	1.2	0.99
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.18

Playing style	Pendikspor	Ümraniyespor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.5	0.53
xT per match	1.1	0.95
xTA per match	1	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	21	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.19
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.78
Passes per match	362	421
Passes against per match	352	369
Switches of play per match	28.9	28.7
Long balls per match	41	37

Set pieces	Pendikspor	Ümraniyespor
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	3.8	4.9
Corners against per match	3.6	4.3
xG per corner	0.06	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.71

Other	Pendikspor	Ümraniyespor
Throw-in control	0.76	0.67

The goalkeepers	Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor)	Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)
Saves	3	17
Save %	33%	77%
xG prevented	52%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pendikspor 52%, draw 27%, Ümraniyespor 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.