Sarıyer vs Bandırmaspor: Prediction & Odds (11 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig11 September 202623°13 km/h

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SarıyerPossession control

BandırmasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sarıyer (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.68 (+1 %)

1 · Sarıyer 40%X 29%31% Bandırmaspor · 2

40%

29%

31%

Analysis: Sarıyer – Bandırmaspor

Sofia Andersson · 8 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Possession battles tend to produce tense encounters, and with both Sariyer and Bandirmaspor favoring control of the ball, we can expect a tightly contested game. The model leans towards Sariyer, assigning them a 40% chance of victory compared to Bandirmaspor's 31%, with a draw sitting at 29%. This inclination is supported by Sariyer's strong home performance history, where they win 55% of matches—a significant factor on a ground they've made their own.

The expected goals (xG) figures—1.26 for the hosts against 1.02 for the visitors—align well with the model's prediction, suggesting Sariyer might edge this encounter. The suggested most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 and 1-0, further suggest a low-scoring affair. With only 40% odds for over 2.5 goals, the under seems the more probable outcome. Historically, the personal record between these teams is too small to heavily influence expectations, yet it's worth noting that Sariyer remains unbeaten in their recent meetings.

Current form gives Sariyer a slight edge in both actual points (10 vs. 9) and expected points (9.5 vs. 8.1), which reflects their overall balance between creating and preventing scoring opportunities. Despite Bandirmaspor matching Sariyer's xG per match at 1.3, they lag in defensive metrics with a higher xGA of 1.1 compared to Sariyer's 0.92. This defensive edge could prove decisive in a game likely to pivot on fine margins.

Given these dynamics, the smart money is on Sariyer to squeeze out a narrow victory, perhaps 1-0, with under 2.5 goals also standing out as a reasonable angle given the statistical backdrop.

Sarıyer

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #10xGA #3xT #4xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
Emeka EzeFxG 0.40 · xT -0.07

Bandırmaspor

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #17xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Gianni BrunoFxG 0.65 · xT -0.01
Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.21
Muhammed GümüşkayaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Sarıyer – Bandırmaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bandırmaspor →

Sarıyer →

0–010.6%

0–110.1%

0–25.3%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.5%

1–113.5%

1–26.7%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.1%

2–18.3%

2–24.2%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.4%

3–13.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-011%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,02

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.68EV+1%

Over 2,540%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Barış Alıcı to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Gianni Bruno to score22%
Dean Liço to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.560% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Under 2.560% probability@1.68BetssonEV+1%reference odds
Under 2.560% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sarıyer	X	2 · Bandırmaspor
Betsafe	2.29	3.20	2.91
Betsson	2.29	3.20	2.91
Nordicbet	2.29	3.20	2.91

Odds updated 11 Sept, 11:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Bandırmaspor win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 3.84 to 2.91 (−24%).

1+21 %

49 %39 %

1.89 → 2.29

X-2 %

34 %24 %

3.28 → 3.20

2-24 %

33 %23 %

3.84 → 2.91

Over 2,50 %

49 %39 %

2.05 → 2.04

Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sarıyer 1Draw 1Bandırmaspor 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Sariyer win 55% of their home matches all-time (22 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarıyer

Bandırmaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarıyer (8–7)

Bandırmaspor (11–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Bandırmaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Bandırmaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarıyer	Bandırmaspor
Points	10	9
xPoints	9.5	8.1
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	0.92	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.13

Playing style	Sarıyer	Bandırmaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.49	0.65
xT per match	1.1	0.8
xTA per match	0.88	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.31
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	11	7
Pass completion %	0.8	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.77
Passes per match	403	412
Passes against per match	368	248
Switches of play per match	35.1	32.3
Long balls per match	45	46

Set pieces	Sarıyer	Bandırmaspor
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.01
Corners per match	3.4	3.9
Corners against per match	3.7	3.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.62

Other	Sarıyer	Bandırmaspor
Throw-in control	0.69	0.72

The goalkeepers	Kaan Arslan (Sarıyer)	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)
Saves	7	20
Save %	100%	87%
xG prevented	100%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarıyer vs Bandırmaspor according to our model?

The model gives Sarıyer a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarıyer 40%, draw 29%, Bandırmaspor 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.