01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Turkish 1. Lig22°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
SarıyerCounter-attacks & crosses2–0
PendiksporCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Sarıyer (35%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.14 (+1 %)
Sarıyer – Pendikspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Sarıyer 35%X 32%32% Pendikspor · 2
35%
32%
32%
Analysis: Sarıyer – Pendikspor
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Sarıyer have found the net in 8 consecutive league matches, a testament to their offensive consistency. Despite not yet beating Pendikspor in their limited two-game head-to-head history since 2024, this small sample should be weighed less heavily than current performance metrics. The hosts have a slight edge in xG and xGA, suggesting a more robust attacking and defensive framework compared to their visitors.
The model's probabilities paint a balanced picture: Sariyer at 35% to Pendikspor's 32%, with a draw almost equally likely at 32%. Most likely scorelines such as 1-1 (14%) and low probabilities for overs (42%) signal a tight affair, reflecting both teams' emphasis on counter-attacks and crosses. These dynamics may contribute to a match where goals are not abundant.
For bettors, a draw at odds of 3.29, available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offers a 6% edge over the model's expected value. With the strong possibility of a deadlock, this represents a calculated opportunity in a match where a 1-1 draw emerges as the standout prediction amidst narrow margins.
SarıyerForm WWDLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #6xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.25
- Emeka EzeFxG 0.48 · xT -0.03
PendiksporForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #4xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Rogério Conceição do RosárioLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.01
- Hakan YeşilRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.41
- Yekta SönmezFxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sarıyer 35% · Draw 32% · Pendikspor 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,51fair 14,56-28 %
MissMatchresultat - SariyerBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,30fair 14,36-35 %
MissMatch prediction: Sarıyer – Pendikspor
Predicted score matrix
Pendikspor →
Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–110.8%
0–26.5%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.8%
1–113.5%
1–27.7%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–06.6%
2–17.8%
2–24.6%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.1%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,18–1,17
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.68
Over 2,542%
@2.04
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Julien Anziani to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Julien Anziani to score24%
- Hasan Emre Emre Yesilyurt to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw32% probability@3.14BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw32% probability@3.14BetssonEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw32% probability@3.14NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sarıyer | X | 2 · Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.43 | EV+ 1% 3.14 | 2.76 |
| Betsson | 2.43 | EV+ 1% 3.14 | 2.76 |
| Nordicbet | 2.43 | EV+ 1% 3.14 | 2.76 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 11:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Pendikspor win since 29 August — the odds have shortened from 3.01 to 2.76 (−8%).
1+11 %
45 %35 %
2.19 → 2.43
X-5 %
33 %23 %
3.29 → 3.14
2-8 %
37 %27 %
3.01 → 2.76
Over 2,5+5 %
51 %41 %
1.95 → 2.04
Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSarıyer 0Draw 0Pendikspor 2
Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.
Key facts
- Sariyer have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sarıyer
Pendikspor
Sarıyer (6–4)
Pendikspor (7–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sarıyer
Pendikspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sarıyer
Pendikspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sarıyer | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 5 |
| xPoints | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.89 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Sarıyer | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 375 | 356 |
| Passes against per match | 388 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.2 | 28.3 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Sarıyer | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| Other | Sarıyer | Pendikspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer) | Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 3 |
| Save % | 56% | 33% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sarıyer vs Pendikspor according to our model?
The model gives Sarıyer a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarıyer 35%, draw 32%, Pendikspor 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.